MD-GOV 2022: Can Maryland GOP win a third gubernatorial term in 2022?

[Suburbia]

I think so. Rutherford or Steele can be the first black governor.

[Bidenworth2020]

No. Franchot is running, and assuming he wins the primary, he will probably do better than the average federal democrat, even against Rutherford. He very likely would have beaten Hogan in 2018 had he run (and I would have voted for him).

[Suburbia]

No. Franchot is running, and assuming he wins the primary, he will probably do better than the average federal democrat, even against Rutherford. He very likely would have beaten Hogan in 2018 had he run (and I would have voted for him).

Franchot is too conservative Democrat for the MD Democrats?

[Suburbia]

Christian Miele can win too

[Bidenworth2020]

No. Franchot is running, and assuming he wins the primary, he will probably do better than the average federal democrat, even against Rutherford. He very likely would have beaten Hogan in 2018 had he run (and I would have voted for him).

Franchot is too conservative Democrat for the MD Democrats?

Franchot is actually pretty liberal. His job as treasurer is just pretty non-partisan so everyone likes him.

[jamestroll]

Franchot being the Democratic nominee would be a bridge way to far for the GOP to hold it for a third term.

Though Hogan could probably win a third if he was allowed to run again.

Just demographically and ideologically there is almost no path forward for the Maryland GOP. Kind of reminds me of Brad Henry winning re-election in 2006 and we all saw what happened afterwards.

[Bidenworth2020]

Franchot being the Democratic nominee would be a bridge way to far for the GOP to hold it for a third term.

Though Hogan could probably win a third if he was allowed to run again.

Just demographically and ideologically there is almost no path forward for the Maryland GOP. Kind of reminds me of Brad Henry winning re-election in 2006 and we all saw what happened afterwards.

Hogan would probably lose to Franchot as well, though it would be a close race. Think 2006 Governor Race redux.

[Suburbia]

Franchot being the Democratic nominee would be a bridge way to far for the GOP to hold it for a third term.

Though Hogan could probably win a third if he was allowed to run again.

Just demographically and ideologically there is almost no path forward for the Maryland GOP. Kind of reminds me of Brad Henry winning re-election in 2006 and we all saw what happened afterwards.

So Hogan, Henry and both Beshears are political analomies?

[Epaminondas]

So Hogan, Henry and both Beshears are political analomies?

Don't forget Freudenthal and Phil Scott, even more impressive.

[Mr.Phips]

Lol no.  Few voters even know who Rutherford is (he is not elected separately from the governor) and Steele is a joke.  Dems would have to nominate another Anthony Brown to lose this in 2022.

[slothdem]

Lol no.  Few voters even know who Rutherford is (he is not elected separately from the governor) and Steele is a joke.  Dems would have to nominate another Anthony Brown to lose this in 2022.

Anthony Brown would win this go around. Pretty much any dem would beat any pub regardless of external conditions.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Franchot being the Democratic nominee would be a bridge way to far for the GOP to hold it for a third term.

Though Hogan could probably win a third if he was allowed to run again.

Just demographically and ideologically there is almost no path forward for the Maryland GOP. Kind of reminds me of Brad Henry winning re-election in 2006 and we all saw what happened afterwards.

Brad Henry (D-OK) has one of the most visually pleasing county maps out there.  

Franchot being the Democratic nominee would be a bridge way to far for the GOP to hold it for a third term.

Though Hogan could probably win a third if he was allowed to run again.

Just demographically and ideologically there is almost no path forward for the Maryland GOP. Kind of reminds me of Brad Henry winning re-election in 2006 and we all saw what happened afterwards.

So Hogan, Henry and both Beshears are political analomies?

I would argue that Andy Beshear qualifies as something of a political anomaly, especially considering the hyper-partisan politics of today's America (I'd throw JBE in there, too).  He barely slipped past a woefully unpopular-GOP incumbent.  Had Bevin not been saddled with that level of unpopularity, I don't think Beshear would have won (though I'm glad he did -- he's one of my favorite Democrats out there).  

I would also classify Hogan as a political anomaly just because his brand of moderate-appeal Republican is becoming rarer and rarer with each election cycle.  

[gerritcole]

Franchot being the Democratic nominee would be a bridge way to far for the GOP to hold it for a third term.

Though Hogan could probably win a third if he was allowed to run again.

Just demographically and ideologically there is almost no path forward for the Maryland GOP. Kind of reminds me of Brad Henry winning re-election in 2006 and we all saw what happened afterwards.

Brad Henry (D-OK) has one of the most visually pleasing county maps out there.  

Franchot being the Democratic nominee would be a bridge way to far for the GOP to hold it for a third term.

Though Hogan could probably win a third if he was allowed to run again.

Just demographically and ideologically there is almost no path forward for the Maryland GOP. Kind of reminds me of Brad Henry winning re-election in 2006 and we all saw what happened afterwards.

So Hogan, Henry and both Beshears are political analomies?

I would argue that Andy Beshear qualifies as something of a political anomaly, especially considering the hyper-partisan politics of today's America (I'd throw JBE in there, too).  He barely slipped past a woefully unpopular-GOP incumbent.  Had Bevin not been saddled with that level of unpopularity, I don't think Beshear would have won (though I'm glad he did -- he's one of my favorite Democrats out there).  

I would also classify Hogan as a political anomaly just because his brand of moderate-appeal Republican is becoming rarer and rarer with each election cycle.  

I’d say there’s quite a few bland gop governors - ducey scott baker herbert Gordon ricketts dewine. They just don’t get press

[Quincy Kelley]

Do I believe MD will eventually have an African American Governor in the future ? Yes.

Do I believe the MD GOP can pull off an Ehrlich/Hogan-style victory depending on the Dem nominee's missteps down the road ? Maybe

Do I believe the MD GOP can hold Government House for a 3rd consecutive term ? No way. Not even Rutherford or Steele (if he bothers to jump back into politics) will be able to overcome the strong Blue feelings of the state.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Franchot's 2018 performance is incredible. He swept every county on the Eastern Shore and even won Allegany County, Carroll County, and Harford County. Many of these counties went for Trump by 30 or 40 points.

This would be an automatic Safe Democratic pickup with him regardless of if Boyd Rutherford is the Republican nominee.

I guess Larry Hogan could make the Senate race interesting, and there'd probably be a lot of panicking and hand-wringing from Democrats and the pundits early on since Hogan would lead in early polls (according to a WaPo poll from Oct. 2019, he led Van Hollen 50-42 in a matchup). I think Van Hollen would eventually win by high single digits at the end of the day.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No way on the face of the earth. And Larry Hogan would not win the senate race and is likely smart enough to realize he would be wasting his time. He wouldn't even get to a single digit margin

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

No way on the face of the earth. And Larry Hogan would not win the senate race and is likely smart enough to realize he would be wasting his time. He wouldn't even get single digits

I don't think he'd have a real shot at winning either, but Republicans will probably beg and plead him to run since the map doesn't have a whole lot of options once you get past NH, NV, and likely AZ. None of those three would be slam-dunks for Republicans either. Add GA if Democrats pick that up this year, I guess.

[Kevinstat]

No way on the face of the earth. And Larry Hogan would not win the senate race and is likely smart enough to realize he would be wasting his time. He wouldn't even get single digits

I did a double-take reading this post until I realized you were saying he wouldn't even get within single-digits (percentage-wise).  Getting 1% of the vote is pretty much a given almost everywhere (except in really crowded races), and even 10% is in most places for a major party candidate being the single candidate representing his party.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No way on the face of the earth. And Larry Hogan would not win the senate race and is likely smart enough to realize he would be wasting his time. He wouldn't even get single digits

I did a double-take reading this post until I realized you were saying he wouldn't even get within single-digits (percentage-wise).  Getting 1% of the vote is pretty much a given almost everywhere (except in really crowded races), and even 10% is in most places for a major party candidate being the single candidate representing his party.

Lol thanks for catching that. I need to be better at checking things over for mistakes before I post them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, if Dems get a clear majority in Senate Dems will offer DC statehood and MD will get a new Dem Gov ans DC as well and Ben Jealous, Mfume, Rep Eleanor and Donna Edward's whom lost in MD races will run for DC races, as long as Robert's and new AA SCOTUS nominee affirm DC statehood

[Xing]

No, it’s a Safe D pick-up.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Franchot being the Democratic nominee would be a bridge way to far for the GOP to hold it for a third term.

Though Hogan could probably win a third if he was allowed to run again.

Just demographically and ideologically there is almost no path forward for the Maryland GOP. Kind of reminds me of Brad Henry winning re-election in 2006 and we all saw what happened afterwards.

Hogan would probably lose to Franchot as well, though it would be a close race. Think 2006 Governor Race redux.

Hogan was at 70% approval in December and I'd bet that's going to be even higher after COVID. If he was on the ballot in 2020 he'd win again and his odds would be better in a Biden midterm.

But nobody other than him can win in this environment. Hogan is in place now because he could run on a 2014-2018 term record, and he only won in 2014 because he ran against a candidate asleep at the wheel with Baltimore suburbs/exurbs absolutely falling out from beneath him. That wouldn't be repeated in the Trump era against a generic R candidate.

[MT Treasurer]

It would be an uphill battle, but I’m not entirely convinced that they couldn’t possibly win it even in a wave. At the very least I’d say it’s more likely to stay red than LA-GOV is to stay blue (in a Biden midterm, obviously).

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It would be an uphill battle, but I’m not entirely convinced that they couldn’t possibly win it even in a wave. At the very least I’d say it’s more likely to stay red than LA-GOV is to stay blue (in a Biden midterm, obviously).

Who are you and what have you done with MT Treasurer?

LOL but I'm surprised your saying this. I would've expected you to say "LOL MD is titanium safe D even if Dems nominate Ben Jealous"

[jamestroll]

Right now, Larry Hogan is the only viable candidate who can win a deep blue state Senatorial election.