IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Vilsack is definitely not the answer here.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Vilsack is definitely not the answer here.

People keep downing Vilsack but I'm not hearing better names. In any state a two term Gov is always usually the best Senate recruit.

Axne, Finkenauer, or Scholten would be fine. I don't mind risking a House seat for a Senate seat.

[Progressive Pessimist]

How would this impact 2020?

It won't.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Her husband may be the only guy I know that’s named Gail.

Well, there is the slightly differently spelled, Gael Garcia Bernal.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Theresa Greenfield and Eddie Mauro are likely candidates

I don't know much about those two, but I'm not feeling optimistic. Another Democratic Senate majority may never happen at this rate. MTTreasurer may end up being right after all.

[Progressive Pessimist]

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

Agreed. Both the presidential and Senate races in Iowa have been very divisive on this forum. I think this will be the final showdown between the “2016 trends” and “WWC will snap back” groups.

It'll be especially nasty if Iowa gives us a split verdict on Pres/Senate, lol.

I'm not changing my prediction maps in my profile, fwiw. MT and both GA seats flip before IA.

I’m really gonna flip out if Biden wins Iowa but Greenfield doesn’t.  Same with North Carolina (if Biden wins while Cunningham doesn’t).  A Senate seat is so much more valuable than a few extra electoral votes (which really have no value on their own if you are already at or above 270).

Hence my signature. This is why the "check on Biden" talking point (even when it's made with positive intentions) is potentially so dangerous for Democrats. Things aren't going to get any better if Republicans keep the Senate, no matter how much Biden wins by.

Quite frankly, any Republicans who subscribes to this mentality ought to be satisfied enough that there is going to be a 6-3 conservative majority on the Superme Court to "hold Biden in check."

[Progressive Pessimist]

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

Agreed. Both the presidential and Senate races in Iowa have been very divisive on this forum. I think this will be the final showdown between the “2016 trends” and “WWC will snap back” groups.

It'll be especially nasty if Iowa gives us a split verdict on Pres/Senate, lol.

I'm not changing my prediction maps in my profile, fwiw. MT and both GA seats flip before IA.

I’m really gonna flip out if Biden wins Iowa but Greenfield doesn’t.  Same with North Carolina (if Biden wins while Cunningham doesn’t).  A Senate seat is so much more valuable than a few extra electoral votes (which really have no value on their own if you are already at or above 270).

Hence my signature. This is why the "check on Biden" talking point (even when it's made with positive intentions) is potentially so dangerous for Democrats. Things aren't going to get any better if Republicans keep the Senate, no matter how much Biden wins by.

Quite frankly, any Republicans who subscribes to this mentality ought to be satisfied enough that there is going to be a 6-3 conservative majority on the Superme Court to "hold Biden in check."

The level of satisfaction for Republicans regarding the Court as a means to check Biden iis mitigated by the realization that with a Trifecta, they can pack the court. The Senate thus acts as buffer to prevent that.

I'm still honestly not convinced that a Democratic Senate would go through with court-packing, even if Biden and Schumer want to. Democratic Senate caucuses are much more ideologically diverse than Republican ones. I really can't see Manchin or Sinema signing onto the idea.