2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1012002744297775105?s=19

Go Sherrill!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Democrats are going to pick up almost half of the seats they need just in the Northeast.

Do you think a Jersey sweep for the Dems will be possible?

NJ-4 will be a really tough district to flip. They could potentially win every seat but that one though, which is a great performance and a massive backfiring of how those districts were drawn. Protecting the incumbents was ironically the number one priority.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Where are the dozens of articles being written about how this Reuters poll spells doom for the Republicans?

Because 2016!

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

If the AZ legislature flips...they can just change the law and let the governor appoint who he wants

I think the optics of that would be terrible, especially for a replacement for someone as respected (deservedly or not) as McCain.

Agreed, it'd look like a greedy power grab.

Because greedy power grabs like stealing a SCOTUS seat hurt the Republicans so much. Or hurt Massachusetts Democrats so much in 2004.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Slambdunk!

[Progressive Pessimist]

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Let's not get too ahead of ourselves. The concept of electoral "walls" needs to be abandoned.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Virginia GCB: D+19

https://twitter.com/VCUnews/status/1027179711426953217

Virginia should change its name to New Maryland.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Grayson is getting that much?

Why can't he just stop running for office!?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Morning Consult/Politico, Aug. 23-24, 1564 registered voters

D: 44 (-1)
R: 36 (nc)

Wow.

Democrats are collapsing.

I feel the disarray closing in from all sides!

Oh no, Dems are #WalkingAway!

WHAT IS THEIR MESSAGE!?

[Progressive Pessimist]

CA-50: SurveyUSA, Aug. 22-26, 539 likely voters

Duncan Hunter (R, inc) 47
Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) 39

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But Atlas told me Hunter was doomed because people care about Republican scandals!

Corruption is tolerated more than having a controversial grandpa.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Siena will release a NY-22 poll tonight.

This is an absolute must win race, we have to be ahead here.

trolling

Well, I would not go that far, but I would say that it would be pretty bad, and I'd shift the house rating back to tilt R instead of tossup firearm to head dems edge out the house.

......I get you are a blue dog, but that doesnt mean that every rating you give has to be the most conservative one possible.

I don't like to be optimistic ever since I got burned in the 2016 election where I predicted that Hillary would have the same electoral map as Obama 2012. Never recovered from that. Ever since, I have always felt that going in with lower expectations and being less cocky serves up better. So yes, I tend to have conservative estimates now.

I would be careful with that line of thinking. Its the same one the pudits are using, and so far, both you and the pundits have been burned, multiple times this cycle.

But it feels a lot better to be burned when you go in with low expectations and get surprised versus the opposite, that's for me at least.

That is my mentality for life in general.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Longjohn is a great last name. Hope he wins just for that.

If he comes in second, Longjohn would get a silver medal.