MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

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Was just about to post it but McCaskill probably gets between 35 and 39% of the vote.

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I LOVE CLAIRE MCCASKILL

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Not much else needs to be said on this contest for now.

MO: Toss-Up -> Lean R
McCaskill is still the underdog, but this is definitely closer to Tilt R than Likely R. People on this forum are letting their personal feelings about McCaskill influence their predictions here, and there's a good chance that this won't serve them well. I could definitely see McCaskill surviving in a good year for Democrats.

pretty much sums it up

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Mccaskill won't go below 45%. Not in 2018.

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The next statewide Democrat to win in Missouri would have to carry Platte and Clay Counties by very healthy margins. Plus Greene County would have to be within single digits.
 
I actually think a lot of the voters that got Iron and Washington Counties as Democratic and St Francois county as close in 2008 are quite frankly dead. But as recently as 2012 Kander won Iron County in a very narrow statewide victory and lost Platte County iirc. . Fast forward four years he loses Iron County in a landslide but wins Platte County in a narrow statewide loss. Times have changed.

Largely political circles have underrated McCaskill and especially on Atlas I think being a female has a lot to do with it. We had polls showing Brown in Ohio down by similar margins as McCaskill yet no one has declared him DOA.

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Uh is anyone else a bit sad that this is the state that went from being the closest state in the country in 2008 and electing democrats statewide by sometimes landslide margins as recently as 2012 to becoming a state that could oust the last two state democratic office holders state wide next year?  In a democratic wave year.

Despite popular belief... It would have been better if Wagner ran for the Senate. Her district would have been viable if open

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LMAO.. Wagner never faced a tough race and I think naturally the dem candidate this year will get in the 40s against Wagner.

But overall better if she ran for senate rather than for reelection to her house seat for democrats.

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Harvard Hawley is a mess

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How doesClaire keep getting breaks like this?

I remember her 2002 re-election campaign for state auditor. Look it up. You will laugh.

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I feel so adamant that McCaskill will lose despite a lot of evidence to the contrary.

Maybe she will out perform polls and make me happy.

Though the numbers in old dem territory (Lead Belt and North East Missouri)  compared to suburban and exurban St. Louis and Kansas City will be very interesting.

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I feel so adamant that McCaskill will lose despite a lot of evidence to the contrary.

Maybe she will out perform polls and make me happy.

Though the numbers in old dem territory (Lead Belt and North East Missouri)  compared to suburban and exurban St. Louis and Kansas City will be very interesting.

I think McCaskill is definitely the third or second most at risk Democrat (Joe Manchin's latest fundraising numbers were not good and his approvals are not anywhere they need to be and I'm going to be the last person to underestimate a psychopath like Don Blankenship, and IDK how the China-Trump trade war will affect North Dakota) in my mind. She's running in a tough state against a non-fringe opponent, and though she's a talented politico she also isn't that moderate.

Yes. Hawley is not a fringe nor a nut case but his fundraising has been surprisingly weak. But still she is talented like you said.

Also for Democrats in red states I am not looking for sheer moderation. I am looking more for candidates who criticize GOP policies and not GOP voters. And being able to work with the opposition of course.

Edit: Also worth noting that Kander came closer to defeating an incumbent in a more partisan contest than Koster did in trying to win a less partisan contest despite Koster being more moderate.  I do think that Koster may have been a better Senate candidate and Kander a better gubernatorial candidate in hindsight.

A problem for McCaskill is that she is not that popular in the St Louis suburbs and she probably needs to win Missouri-02 by a decent margin to win statewide. I am sure both Claire McCaskill and Nicole Galloway will focus a lot of attention to that area as it is not that R of a district.

Another issue is that there is not that much of any indication that the ancestral Democratic areas will be voting Democratic again.  Margins will be closer and Trump over performed for sure but I do not see Washington County voting for Democrats again for instance.  

I also agree with you that Joe Manchin is not unbeatable like many on this site believe. I do believe he has a higher ceiling and lower floor than McCaskill. I am 100% confident McCaskill will exceed 45% of the vote but she can not coast in her race. Manchin I could see really tanking it but could also see him winning rather easy.

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And no.. this news does not make MO Sen safe R.

Its not like it is going to get Greitens off the news... and the impact of the scandal on the MO Sen election was always over played.

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Yes, clearly a Republican governor resigning will help a Republican Senate candidate in the same state.

Toss-Up before, Toss-Up now (not a hack)

lol remember I have pretty much always had this as toss up tilting R lol

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So at this point I think McCaskill will win Missouri's second congressional district.

Will it be enough to win statewide? We shall see.

It is funny that last year I was one of the very few on this site who thought McCaskill had a chance in hell and now a days I seem to be less optimistic compared to most of her re-election chances.

Pretty much have always had this as a toss up...

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Galloway will outperform McCaskill in places in St Charles County and West County St. Louis.

But interestingly I am betting in historically Democratic but now uber GOP counties that McCaskill may out perform Galloway by a little bit.

I shall be voting all Democratic this year. The last Missouri Republican I supported was Rick Stream in 2014 due to circumstances.

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Just get rid of the f****** tariffs. Simple

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Petersen was never going to beat Hawley, and even though his campaign really hasn’t been all that impressive, I still think this is the second most vulnerable Senate seat for Democrats (after IN). Tossup.

Cort Vanostran is the nominee for MO-02 and Dem primary vote has well exceed GOP vote there.

and Yes I agree.. McCaskill could lose

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Petersen was never going to beat Hawley, and even though his campaign really hasn’t been all that impressive, I still think this is the second most vulnerable Senate seat for Democrats (after IN). Tossup.

Cort Vanostran is the nominee for MO-02 and Dem primary vote has well exceed GOP vote there.

and Yes I agree.. McCaskill could lose

I feel like this will remain somewhere in the Hawley +3 to McCaskill +3 range unless the national environment improves for Republicans. Definitely one of the most difficult races to predict. I think Galloway is probably slightly favored, though.

yes!!

And Cort will defeat ann wagner! w000t!

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Sometimes I feel like writing MO-Sen off. No doubt it will be tight but I just cant see Claire pulling across the finish line. Still I know that is a silly idea as I can see the logic of why people think Claire may have a tiny advantage.

I find MO-Auditor and MO-02 (if an incumbent R was not in it) a lot more winnable.

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Dem ballots were 73% of the total in St Louis County: is that...normal? Seems very high relative to the usual margins. It doesn't strike me as a county where masses of GOP voters would be pulling DEM ballots to influence local contests.

At any rate, the final figure statewide was 52.3% GOP, 47.7% DEM:

Griff,

You see why I believe MO-02 is a very winnable district for us correct?

I have been getting tons of flak for it ever since Dec 2016.

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Even more hilarious is that Saundra McDowell won the primary despite being outspent 200-1 by David Wasinger.

Cash on hand balances for the Auditor nominees as of August 7th:

Nicole Galloway (D)*—-$1.081 million
Saundra McDowell (R)—-$3,000

LOL
There hasn’t been a contested auditor’s race this lopsided (financially, at least) since Claire McCaskill beat a convicted felon in 2002 with over 60% of the vote. Not suggesting that Galloway will win anywhere near that big of a blowout, to be clear; her best case scenario is probably an upper single digits win. And hell, she still might lose anyway to an unqualified opponent because of the D after her name.

She probably won due to being the only female in the race.. and the gop may have ed themselves by holding right to work vote in August because it denied attention to auditor candidates. Wasinger and Curtman would have presented formidable challenges to Galloway.

A poll had McDowell up 47 to 42 over Galloway but that is likely noise and generic r vs generic d at this point. Galloway is about to run ads and I just received an email from her and donated 5.00 bucks. Once the campaign starts she will likely lead.

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The position is AUDITOR.. the optics are even worse for that position.

But please please please do not remove her from the ballot!

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Does Josh Hawley win Johnson County, which he lost to Tony Monetti in the primary?

How is this a serious question?

55 to 43 Hawley would be my guess.

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Wow, Claire wont vote for a man whos having a sexual assault charge, how terrible. Its not like polling has shown that voting for Kavenaugh would be worse for her than voting for him. Yeah, this is a likely R race now, Bagel is right, as always. /s

She has a reason to vote No now.

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God, I can't wait until this race is finally called. The next 16 months are going to be so annoying, lol.

Neither can I....

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Just FYI... for St. Louis County, MO which Claire may need to win nearly 2 to 1 to win statewide that there is a correlation between how trumpy an area is and how many bunnies you see in the wild. The more  bunnies there are the more trumpy it is.