AL-SEN: It’s Tuberville

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No no no no no no no no no

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Zeigler claims Bentley is thinking about running

Bentley, Moore, and Sessions are probably the only candidates that can make this competitive for Jones. And even then, it would be lean R at best.

What are you talking about? Sessions would curb stomp Doug Jones.

Yeah, Sessions would quite possibly get over 60% of the vote.

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Yellowhammer and Indy, who do you think is favored in the R primary, especially if Byrne runs? I’d rather they didn’t nominate Moore or Zeigler because this seat is a must-win for Republicans no matter how you slice it.

Byrne would be prohibitively favored over Zeigler (Moore is probably a non-factor at this point.)

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He will likely do considerably worse. The race is Safe R, and the winner of the Republican primary will instantaneously become senator-elect.

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Almost any any republican would at least Kirk him, and several could Blanche him.

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Moore could not win the primary, but if we suspend reality and pretend that he somehow does, I think he’d start out as a mild favorite against Jones. Tilt R with Moore, and probably Safe R with anyone else.

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Moore could not win the primary, but if we suspend reality and pretend that he somehow does, I think he’d start out as a mild favorite against Jones. Tilt R with Moore, and probably Safe R with anyone else.

Even Luther "Lost to Moore in the Runoff, causing this whole mess in the first place" Strange?

Speaking of which, what, did he already bow out or something?

Strange? I believe so.

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https://twitter.com/TTuberville/status/1114594230901575681

Alabama football is a lot more popular than Auburn football. If Jones can get an endorsement from Nick Saban (remember he endorsed Joe Manchin, so it's not a huge leap) and Tuberville is the Republican nominee, he may have a shot to keep the seat.

LOL

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How big of a anti Trump landslide would it take to give Jones a shot to hold the seat, would a 8-10 point national victory be enough?

Maybe a 15 point national victory

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https://www.johnhmerrill.com/

AL-SOS John Merrill is in.

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https://www.johnhmerrill.com/

AL-SOS John Merrill is in.

His Twitter feed is an endless string of Fox News & Breitbart dad hot takes. Check it out unless, of course, he has blocked you. He can't stand those libs & won't let them use his social media as a platform!

Obviously a completely rational & normal person.

Also, a vocal Roy Moore supporter from 2017.

Well, not voting for Moore in 2017 would’ve been extremely irrational.

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Doug Jones is a man of character and backbone, who conducts his politics by what he believes in. I hope he gets appointed to the Justice Department or Supreme Court. He's way too good for Alabama, I wish he could be traded for some blue state senator.

Most Alabamians are people of faith and have strong christian values, it's a shame they are ''represented'' by this man.

Jones regularly attends services at Canterbury United Methodist Church, outside Birmingham, where he has also taught Sunday School. In 1999, he successfully prosecuted two Klansmen involved in the 1963 bombing of the 16th Street Baptist Church. By all accounts, he is a devout man of faith with strong Christian values that drive how he thinks and acts.

Unless that's not what you meant? If not, why don't you spell it out for us?

If your are a ''christian'' and supports abortion on demand you're a hypocrit.

The same Alabama "Christians" that supported the very lynchings that we're talking about in this thread? K.

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Glad to see Jones defying the very tired conventional wisdom that Democrats must run as moderates in any race that isn't in a D+700 district.

Let’s see how much good it does him.

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With word that Sessions is considering comeback, we should note that a potential GOP nightmare scenario is a Sessions vs. Moore GOP runoff. Hard to see Trump actively taking a side in that matchup, but simultaneously hard to see Moore not using the President against Sessions in a very effective way. McConnell and co would obviously aggressively back Sessions, though we all know Moore is incredibly effective at using McConnell to his advantage. Possibly yet another mess of Trump's own making.

Sessions would probably still win, Moore is more toxic than he is to the GOP primary electorate. Sessions is still beloved by many.

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<1% chance

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This should be fun. Definitely keeping AL at Likely R.

Why? Sessions would make it titanium R. He'd probably do a smidge better in the general than Tuberville. The only candidate who conceivably blow this race is Moore, who's all but a non-factor now.

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This should be fun. Definitely keeping AL at Likely R.

Why? Sessions would make it titanium R. He'd probably do a smidge better in the general than Tuberville. The only candidate who conceivably blow this race is Moore, who's all but a non-factor now.

Sessions’ problem is the primary, not the general. He has destroyed all of his goodwill with the Trump base and I can’t see him getting it back in four months’ time.

That's true. I really want him to win but I don't see how it will happen.
I go on local facebook, and literally 100% of the comments from Republicans about him entering the race are negative. He didn't deserve to have this happen. The Trump cult is gonna ruin him.
The nuts are all voting for carpetbaggin' Florida Tommy. Seriously, the frontrunner for our senate seat voted in Florida last year.

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To Alabamians or Alabama experts: Who comes out of this tug of war unscathed?  Does Moore pull off a miracle?  Do the denizens of Alabama forgive Sessions for his role in Mueller?  Or are we getting Byrne or Tuberville?

There's no chance of Moore even making it to the runoff, so he's pretty much a non-factor right now, except when it comes to who he is pulling support from (probably mostly Tuberville).
I feel like Byrne and Merrill have the most to lose from Sessions getting in, as Tuberville's base is pretty inflexible. His supporters are mostly hardcore Trump drones who will vote as the dear leader commands. And also folks who just reflexively, unthinkingly vote for the candidate with the least political history because "muh career politicians."
I expect Merrill's campaign to really decline now, as he no longer really has a viable niche to exploit in the race.
Unfortunately, the most hardcore elements of the R base here now despise Sessions. Crossing Trump in any way, or even simply failing to kiss the ring enthusiastically enough, are mortal sins to them. Sessions did not act as Trump's fixer, and now they hate him for it --despite his decades of dedicated service to our State. I strongly doubt that Sessions will be able to win the primary, but I'll still support him.
The clearest loser is Jones. He had no chance yesterday, and he has no chance today. Whichever of Tuberville, Sessions, or Byrne advances to the general is irrelevant, because Jones will lose no matter what -- simple as that.

If I had to guess who the nominee would be today, I'd say Tuberville. Unfortunate that our next senator may a carpetbagger.

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Hopefully the Turtle can exert some pressure on Trump to reconsider his harsh position against Sessions.

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The thing with Sessions is that he may have burnt too many bridges with the GOP. We all saw what happened with Jeff Flake and Bob Corker.

And Sessions didn’t even turn on Trump- Trump turned on him.

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Hopefully the Turtle can exert some pressure on Trump to reconsider his harsh position against Sessions.

McConnell would probably prefer Byrne as a colleague.  Byrne will be Trump's nominal pick (like Strange was in 2017).

I suspect McConnell has been one of the people pushing for Sessions to jump in -- just a hunch. I know that Shelby will probably be on board with him, too.

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I think Republicans are favored (but far from safe) here, but the margin will be embarrassing, especially if Tuberville gets the nom.

I'm curious as to what you think it would take for Jones to win here, & what you would say his chances are as of right now?

A disastrous Republican candidate/campaign, an ugly Republican primary, further erosion of GOP support in the suburbs/urban areas, Republican overconfidence/incompetence, and a Democratic wave. I think he’s the underdog, but I don’t buy that the race is Safe R, and his chances are very clearly higher than <0.1% (this percentage was of course always ridiculous, but not surprising coming from the posters who thought KY-GOV 2019 and AL-SEN 2017 were Safe R).

No.