Australia 2007

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I think that John Howard's Government will win a 5th term over Kevin Rudd's Australian Labor Party. In the traditional Howard way, the Prime Minister will come back from the dead and win. And as for John Howard losing his seat, it won't happen. The last time an Australian Prime Minister lost his seat was in 1929, when Nationalist Prime Minister, Stanley Melbourne Bruce lose thanks to the Great Depression.

I do think Kevin Rudd is the ALP's best leader since Bob Hawke. If Rudd loses the 2007 Federal Election (I guarentee it will be close), he is more than likely to win in 2010 over Peter Costello (hopefully not). I believe Kevin Rudd is the ALP's best chance of winning back the Lodge for many years. Now think about it, Beazley and Latham's numbers as prefered Prime Minister were low compared to Kevin Rudd's. And if either Latham or Beazley were still leader of the ALP, they would have no chance of winning in 2007.

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You can never trust polls. This sort of thing has happened over the years. The Prime Minister has been trailing by 20 points in the polls, only to win comftably. Like Paul Keating in '93, many opinion polls and people thought he had no chance against thd Kennedyesque John Hewson. But then Keating came back from the dead and won in March. Though I'm no Howard or Liberal Party supporter, with the midus touch, little Johnny Howard will win in 2007

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I was only comparing Hewson to JFK on his wealth and becoming Libs leader at a young age. Or in JFK's case President at 43. That's all.

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The funny thing is that, the Australian people like the Government's budget and yet dosen't like the Liberal Government. Rudd is also leading Howard as prefered PM and also on the issue of Industrial Relations. Rudd has also promised if he is elected PM in this years election, he won't use tax-payers money to pay for political commericials. Insert shocking music!

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Basically, the government is on the nose. Howard is on the nose.

The ONLY way the liberals can win is if Labor stuffs up. Basically, Labor is seen as an alternative, and a better alternative, for the first time in a long time.

Your right, hughento. With the polls out today, how can the ALP stuff-up?  It's the first time in along time that the Labor opposition has a better alternative than the Government. If the ALP manage to stuff up in '07, in my mind the ALP will be in power by 2010, with Kevin Rudd at the helm.

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As a sub-note, I'm going to be involved in a by-election in a few weeks. John Thwaites, Deputy Premier of Victoria, as well as Water, Climate Change and Environment Minister (I think that's all...) and the member for Albert Park, is stepping down.

In less important news, so is the Premier, Steve Bracks, so Williamstown will be having one as well.

I thought it was quite odd that both Bracks and Thwaites resigned on the same day. I think it's got something to do with that Murray-Darling river scheme. I wish, some one will challenge John Brumby for the leadership on Monday morning, he stuffed up as Opposition leader in the 1990's and he'll do it again when he's Premier. With Premier Brumby looming, it seems that Ted Ballieu will become Premier in 2010, if not some other rich Liberal from Toorak.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again, John Howard will win a 5th term in 2007 over Kevin Rudd's ALP. These Prefered Prime Minister polls mean nothing. Howard will win. Mark my words.

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Kevin Rudd said that the ALP will take a hit in the next opinion polls. Well Kevin Rudd was WRONG. The ALP are still leading the Liberals 55-45% on two party prefered. And he's leading Howard in the prefered Prime Minister polls aswell by 6 percentage points I think.

You have to admit, it's pretty funny the whole saga about Kevin Rudd going to an up-market strip club in NYC some 4 years ago. To me he dosen't seem the type to do so. Never-the-less, we don't care if he went to the strip club, as Queensland Premier Peter Beattie said, "It shows that he's a real human being, with vains" or something along the lines of that.

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Sadly to all you people that wanted John Howard to have resigned or be dumped, your dreams haven't come true. He will see the Liberal party into the 2007 Federal Election. This morning he wasn't challenged for the leadership and the caucus are unanimously supporting there leader into Election 2007.

Though I have said in this thread many times before that John Howard will be re-elected, I'm starting to think that this won't be the case and Kevin Rudd will be Prime Minister by years end. And I'm not a Liberal Party supporter! I believe the ALP will win the 16 seats it needs to win back Government, this considering in the latest opinion polls the ALP is leading 60-40 on 2-Party Prefered.

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Sadly to all you people that wanted John Howard to have resigned or be dumped, your dreams haven't come true. He will see the Liberal party into the 2007 Federal Election. This morning he wasn't challenged for the leadership and the caucus are unanimously supporting there leader into Election 2007.

Though I have said in this thread many times before that John Howard will be re-elected, I'm starting to think that this won't be the case and Kevin Rudd will be Prime Minister by years end. And I'm not a Liberal Party supporter! I believe the ALP will win the 16 seats it needs to win back Government, this considering in the latest opinion polls the ALP is leading 60-40 on 2-Party Prefered.

Don't call it the caucus to a Party member.

Thanks for telling me PolNut. Well Prime Minister John Howard has said that if he is re-elected in 2007, he'll retire midterm and hand the leadership over to Peter Costello. No Peter No!

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He better bloody-well call the thing today or tomorrow... I'm getting sick of the faux campaign.

Me too Polnut. This faux campaign is sure pissing me off.

Did you hear that Foreign Affairs Minister, Alexander Downer is rumored to quit Federal politics and have a crack at State politics in South Australia. Accoring to 3AW (yes 3AW with Neil Mitchell) Downer is the lead the South Australian Liberal Party in 2010 and try and regain the Premiership off incumbent Mike Rann. I honestly think that rumor is total bulls**t, but it's funny.

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Look what Kevin Rudd done this time. He cleared a speech for his Foreign Minister to make on banning Capital Punishment in South East Asia. Or should I say a coalition to help stop Capital Punishment in South East Asia. The minister made the speech and Rudd came out firing at his minister by calling is perposturious (or something like that). Then late afternoon yesterday, Rudd admitted it was his idea all along.

I wouldn't be surprised if Johnny calls the Election this weekend for November 24. I thought he would have called it last week, the joy of not knowing when the election will be called.

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I've heard that Prime Minister Howard is expected to make a visit to Yarralumba tomorrow to finally call the 2007 Australian Federal Election for November 24.

Prime Minister Howard yesterday released a booklet listing his Government's achievements and outlining five areas it would concentrate on if re-elected. It was similar to Ronald Reagan's 1984 comments "What kind of country do we want? We want a strong, prosperous, and secure America." Instead of saying America, PM Howard ofcourse said Australia.

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The Campaign is now underway. After how many months of waiting Watch Howard's numbers rise in the coming 6 weeks. It will be a closer election than many people think.

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Can we safely say that Howard is going to get thrashed from Sydney to Ottawa?

As much as people would like to believe that John Howard and the Liberal party will be smashed this November it won't happen. The polls won't matter until the final week of the Election campaign when it will be down to the wire. Even Kevin Rudd believes it will be down to the wire, even though the ALP is currently leading by 16 points over the Liberal/National Coalition on 2 party prefered.

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Who wants to see some Election '07 campaign commercials? I think you do! I have only found one election commercial on YouTube I'll update the list as the campaign progresses. Enjoy.

Kevin Rudd - New Leadership

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I am not actively supporting John Howard or Kevin Rudd, the Liberal Party or the ALP. Both political parties are becoming more identical everyday as the campaign unfolds. Not to mention Howard and Rudd are both both right-wingers.

The only reason why Kevin Rudd is doing so well in the polls is because he is a media slut. Sucking up to the media anytime he can. Afterall he is a Media Slut. (Thank you very much Andrew Hansen )

Earlier this week the Liberal Party release their 34 billion dollar tax cut. The ALP were criticized for not releasing their tax policy. Shadow Treasurer Wayne Swan said we'll take our time. Then on Friday they released theirs. Basically identical to the Liberal Party's one. With minor changes. And I mean minor.

On a final note may I say Julia Gillard, Deputy Leader of the ALP who is a former unionist and a member of the Socialist left in the ALP, came out on Lateline last Wednesday (I think) and said she was a Conservative. If Gillard is a conservative that must mean Howard is a Socialist.

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Well the Debate between Howard and Rudd is over. Myself and many others believe that Kevin Rudd was the winner of the debate. One survey of voters in the Channel 9 studio (run by the Packer's) said that Rudd won the debate, by a significant margin. Just like that last debates, where Beazley and Latham were seen as the better debaters, however they lost the election.

Rudd was quite strong on all fronts during the debate, especially on the 'Education Revolution' and his Iraq Policy. Though at some stages, Rudd seemed to be sweating under the pressure, which was quite noticable.

Whilst Prime Minister Howard was quite strong debator too, however not much as Rudd. Howard did surprisingly get good reviews from the Studio audience at Channel 9, on his plan to sign a comprehensive Climate Change policy with the World's biggest Carbon emitters. The United States, China and India would be included.

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I'm not very knowledgable about Australian politics, but from up here, it looks like while everything has been going right for Labor since 2004, WorkChoices hhas been the nail in the coffin for the Coalition. Am I right?

I would say that everything has been going right for the ALP since about mid 2006. More so when Kevin Rudd was elected leader of the ALP in December 2006. Since February, the ALP with Rudd at the helm, has been leading most Opinion Polls. Most of these polls had the ALP up by more than 10 percentage points too.

I wouldn't say WorkChoices has been the nail in the coffin for the Coalition, because many other factors such as rising interest rates, Australian involvement in Iraq has also contributed to the Liberal Party's current status in the polls.

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What might be the final nail in the coffin, is the likely interest rate rise on November 6.

So much for keeping interest rates low Johnny. I believe this is the sixth time interest rates have gone up during his 4th term in office. It probably will be the final nail in the coffin, thus then end of Howard's political career. Which is certain anyway, considering he'll hand over the leadership, half way through his fifth term, if the Government is re-elected.

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Now to something completly different. Does anyone know when was the last time, Interest Rates went down? Did they go down when Howard took office in 1996 or did they stay the same once Keating was gone? Thanks.

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Poll Update: Labor is leading the Coalition 54-46% on two party prefered according to the latest Galaxy Polls.

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Well - the politician I loathe like no other REALLY dropped himself in it yesterday.

Tony Abbott - the right-wing Health minister - had to apoligse publicly three times yesterday.

1. He made a dispariging comment about an abstestos campaigner who's on his last legs.

2. He was 30 mins late for a televised debate with his shadow Nicola Roxon - then overheard saying "bulls**t" to her in a testy little exchange afterwards.

3. His much hyped take-over of the Mersey Hosptial in a critical margial seat may not happen before the election.

Oh the glee... the glee!!!!

I concur with you Jack. Tony Abbott is a politician I love to loathe to. He really stuffed up yesterday when he ran 30 minutes for the Health Ministers Debate. That exchange afterwards was quite funny. I guess it's showing on the Coalition Government.

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Alsio, a good newspoll for the coalition today, 53-47 ALP.

I almost forgot about that. Apparently according the the Newspoll poll, the ALP is leading the Libs 53-47% in South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. The ALP is also expected to gain anywhere between 8 and 22 seats this November 24.

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An interesting graph:

Where did you find this graph Verily?

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I just want the bloody thing to be over.

Only 9 more days until the me-tooism is over!!

I do find it funny that the Liberals and the ALP "launched" their campaigns officially this week. When there's about half a week left in the campaign. And we tax payers had to pay for it too.