California House Races Megathread

[Coastal Elitist]

New poll for CA-49 from the Jacobs campaign:
https://i.imgur.com/UEqEu7q.png

Harkey 14%
Chavez 14%
Applegate 13%
Jacobs 11%

After hearing short bios on the candidates:
Harkey 19%
Jacobs 16%
Applegate 14%

[Coastal Elitist]

New poll for CA-48 from Change Research:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1plHeNfEPvFUJdLPtN47O9xz9tcyjrPq_RJzdUi1ggbI/edit

Rohrabacher 27%
Kierstead 19%
Baugh 17%
Rouda 11%

After negative messages about each candidate:
Rohrabacher 25%
Kierstead 25%
Baugh 21%
Rouda 11%

[Coastal Elitist]

My predictions just over a week out are...

CA-4: McClintock v. Jessica Morse

CA-8: Cook v. Marge Doyle (although Tim Donnelly wouldn’t surprise me)

CA-10: Denham v. Josh Harder (IIRC, Eggman hasn’t been running much of a campaign; if I’m mistaken about that then Eggman should be able to make the GE runoff)

CA-22: Nunes v. Andrew Janz

CA-25: Knight v. Katie Hill

CA-29: Cardenas v. Joe Shammas

CA-39: Young Kim v. Gil Cisneros

CA-45: Walters v. David Min

CA-48: Rohrabacher v. Harley Rouda (although Scott Baugh wouldn’t surprise me and he’d definitely beat Rohrabacher in the runoff; there’s also a slight chance of a Baugh v. Rouda runoff, but it’s highly unlikely)

CA-49: Doug Applegate v. Rocky Chavez (there’s a chance that Diane Harkey barely makes the runoff, but I doubt it; while Chavez and Applegate are both clearly fading, I think Harkey needed about 3-4 more weeks to actually pull ahead of one of them and she only has about a week left.)

CA-50: Ammar Campa-Najjar v. Bill Wells (although Hunter wouldn’t surprise me)

Bonus:

Governor: Gavin Newsom v. John Cox (although Antonio Villarigosa wouldn’t surprise me)

LG: Ed Hernandez v. Jeff Bleich (although Kounalakis wouldn’t surprise me)

Treasurer: Fiona Ma v. Greg Conlon

AG: Xavier Becerra v. Steve Bailey (although at this early date, I think Jones will beat Beccera if he makes the runoff; the thing is that Bailey is [IIRC] a pretty credible candidate as far as CA Republican sacrificial lambs go)

Senate: Diane Feinstein v. Kevin De Leon

While I agree with most of these. The Lieutenant Governor race probably won't be D vs D, because Republican Cole Harris has actually spent 2 million dollars and has the party's endorsement so he will probably receive most of the Republican vote propelling him into the runoff. He's also run ads on cable television.

[Coastal Elitist]

If Newman is recalled in SD-29, would Democrats (like Josh Ferguson) still hold the seat? Or would it flip?

If he's recalled why would those voters elect another Democrat. Looking at current absentee numbers I think it flips. This should be in the statewide thread though not the congressional one.

[Coastal Elitist]

How hard is it to mail back a freaking ballot? Cali prob has one of the most convenient voting laws in the country and still it's a struggle for people to turn out.

Californians are Americans and Americans don’t like voting.

Yes this is true, my grandparents have lived in this state for a long time and have never registered to vote.

[Coastal Elitist]

People really need to stop comparing every state. Each state has its own issues. Just because Republicans in other states haven't been as motivated doesn't mean that California one's won't. I really think Democrats are overrating their chances in Orange County. I would not guarantee that their won't be a lockout. Polls have mostly been internal and many candidates have been within the margin of error in multiple races.

[Coastal Elitist]

Poll from CA-39 has Cisneros beating Kim by 11 with just 5% undecided. It is an internal though.

https://cisnerosforcongress.com/app/uploads/2018/08/Tulchin-Research-Memo-Gil-Cisneros-CA-39-PUBLIC-MEMO-8-18.pdf

[Coastal Elitist]

Internal poll by the Fareed campaign for CA-24 shows Carbajal only 1 point ahead of Fareed at 47%-46%.

https://www.scribd.com/document/384680493/CA-24-Olive-Tree-Strategies-R-for-Justin-Fareed-July-2018

[Coastal Elitist]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

[Coastal Elitist]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

Think Nunes' opponent has a chance, or would there have to be a Category 5 blue tsunami to take him down?

No. He got 58% in the primary and while that's lower than last time Republicans may not have been as motivated because he was the only R in the primary

[Coastal Elitist]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

Why the confidence in CA-10 and CA-25? Do you think they will benefit from low Hispanic turnout?

Personally CA-10 is right next door to me and I've seen quite a few Denham signs. He also supports DACA and finding a path to citizenship. He's also good with local issues involving farming and water.

CA-25 is really just based off primary results. Knight was the only R running, so maybe Republicans weren't as motivated to turnout for the primary.

[Coastal Elitist]

My ratings for the competitive house races (I don't use tossups):
CA-10: Tilt R
CA-21: Likely R
CA-25: Tilt R
CA-39: Lean R
CA-45: Tilt R
CA-48: Lean D
CA-49: Lean D

It's hard to rate though since only CA-48 has had quality polling.

Think Nunes' opponent has a chance, or would there have to be a Category 5 blue tsunami to take him down?

Nunes has been my choice in the "pick the longshot flip" type threads.  But it's admittedly a longshot.

Honestly, with all of this Russia crap going on, he should be one of the Dems' top targets.

He's been included in their list of targets. However the central valley in that area is not favorable to Democrats.

[Coastal Elitist]

Here's the breakdown of R vs D total primary results:
CA 10: 52.1-47.9
CA 21: 62.8-37.2
CA 25: 51.8-48.2
CA 39: 53.3-45
CA 45: 51.7-46
CA 48: 53.1-46
CA 49: 50.8-47.7

So the only district where Republicans were outvoted was CA-49. Democrats did do a lot better than last time in the primary, but of course they had better turnout. Meanwhile, Republicans was about the same so they'll probably be less of a drop off between the primary and the general. In cases around the country like MO-2 and the Minnesota ones the D's actually outvoted the R's. This only happened in CA-49. DTC in an earlier post expected the D's to outvote the R's by 5-8 points which didn't happen.

[Coastal Elitist]

So SurveyUSA has a poll of CA-50: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=eb9595d8-c029-4d6c-946c-0ada29b42230&c=37

Hunter leads Najjar 47-39% with 42% of voters saying the charges against Hunter are politically motivated. 41% of voters say that the charges make no difference while 11% say they are more likely to vote for him because of the charges.

[Coastal Elitist]

And here is the ad!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XSPbbLKlQug

Won't matter. This district is full of deplorables that won't vote for a brown person with a muslim sounding name.

[Coastal Elitist]

Bold Guess- Only David Valadao, Paul Cook, Doug LaMalfa, Kevin McCarthy and Ken Calvert will remain in office after the election

Um, Tom McClintock is not vulnerable. He's in CA-4 which is not competitive it's 85% White.

[Coastal Elitist]

Bold Guess- Only David Valadao, Paul Cook, Doug LaMalfa, Kevin McCarthy and Ken Calvert will remain in office after the election

Um, Tom McClintock is not vulnerable. He's in CA-4 which is not competitive it's 85% White.

Um, Rick Saccone is not vulnerable. He's in PA-18 which is not competitive it's 96% White.

(I agree with you that McClintock is not vulnerable, but that was a terrible argument.)

This isn't the midwest. The majority of California rural whites despise Democrats, which is why Republicans outnumber Democrats by a good number in this district. Which is what I should have said.

[Coastal Elitist]

I tried telling you guys that Kim is a stronger candidate, but no you all thought a lottery winner is the stronger candidate. Also the Vietnamese are more conservative than people on Atlas think. They just really hated Trump which is why Clinton won this district.

[Coastal Elitist]

Any chance turnout in Los Angeles County for CA-39 is decent? Cisneros needs it to win.

Hopefully not

[Coastal Elitist]

Here's a breakdown of Trump approval above 40% in California according to Ipsos:

CA-1: 51%
CA-4: 50%
CA-23: 50%
CA-8: 49%
CA-50: 48%
CA-22: 48%
CA-42: 47%
CA-36: 45%
CA-21: 45%
CA-10: 44%
CA-25: 43%
CA-45: 43%
CA-48: 43%
CA-3: 43%
CA-39: 42%
CA-49: 42%
CA-7: 42%
CA-16: 41%
CA-24: 40%
CA-31: 40%
CA-26: 40%
CA-41: 40%

Here are my ratings.
Safe R: CA-1, CA-4, CA-8, CA-22, CA-23, CA-42
Likely R: CA-21, CA-50
Lean R: CA-39
Tossup: CA-10, CA-25, CA-45, CA-48
Likely D: CA-49

[Coastal Elitist]

I was listening to the NPR show Left Right and Center and they had two experienced Orange County politicos on to discuss the races and both the Republican and Gustavo Arellano thought that Dems would probably only pick up one Orange County district--very pessimistic.

In any case, I think Dems pick up three out of four...

CA49 - Likely Dem - An easy win for Levin. This district is changing fast and Levin's a good candidate who is able to get cross-over support in the most GOP part of the district...

CA45 - Leans Dem - Mimi Waters had been seen as a relatively strong incumbent but she's made some gaffes. Meanwhile, Katie Porter isn't a perfect candidate. But I think the district dynamics here are just too much for Republicans to overcome.

Irvine and Tustin provide a solid blue base and feature exactly the suburban moderate type voters that Trump has had the most trouble with. Moreover, while there is a high Asian-American population in the district, the immigrant community in Irvine is more educated and likely includes more American-born Asian-Americans than CD39 or CD48. That will result in turnout dynamics and ideology that more closely aligns the communities in the district with white liberals.

Polling shows that Porter has a slight lead here and I believe it.

CA48 - Slight Lean Dem - Dana Rohrabacher is a mess and I think Harley Rouda has done pretty well. But we should not underestimate the extreme Republican-ness of Newport Beach and Huntington Beach. Newport Beach Republicans aren't generally Trump fans but do they want Nancy Pelosi to run congress? Trump/Rohrabacher are perfect for the Republican politics of Huntington Beach which is known to have more of a racist/jingoist Republicanism that prefers the beach and bar scene to the country club where Trump--even as a country club owner--may still be considered tacky.

That said, there are strong Dem areas--mainly Laguna Beach/Aliso Viejo and Costa Mesa but low Latino turnout in Costa Mesa can be killer.

I'm surprised by the polling that shows a tie but hoping to see some growth from Rouda next month.

CA39 - Slight Lean Rep - What a mess. Kim is a good candidate although i don't think she's the rock star she's been made out to be. It's just that Cisneros is a disaster. Plus the district dynamics are tough. Dems rely on strong turnout from Latinos and Asian-Americans. The Asian-American vote in this district, meanwhile, is heavily Chinese (LA County) and Korean (Orange County).

The Chinese vote is quite insular and the community in the district includes many relatively new immigrants. Unlike in Monterey Park--where there's a strong Judy-Chu-run Chinese-American Democratic machine, the Republicans have historically had stronger ties to the Chinese vote in Hacienda Heights, Walnut, and Diamond Bar. Sen. Ling Ling Chang, Mei Mei Huff, and several past and present Walnut city council members... Of course, Young Kim being Korean along with State Assemblyman Choi also helps.

The white voters in the district, meanwhile, in Fullerton, Brea, and Yorba Linda tend to include more Trumpian tea-party types than you might find in CA45 or CA49. Unless Cisneros can figure out how to get support from Chinese-Americans, he's going to be sunk.

Irvine and Tustin aren't a solid blue base. They have slim Democratic voter registration advantages.  Lake Forest and Mission Viejo both have strong Republican voter registration edges. CA-45 will be hard for a Democrat to win. Costa Mesa and Aliso Viejo aren't strong Democratic areas they both have a Republican voter registration edge. You just explained why CA-48 will be hard to win, but then you're surprised that the latest poll is a tie, so why do you have it as Lean D. If any other Republican was running in CA-48 they would easily win. Huntington Beach and Newport Beach might just be too Republican for Rouda to win this district. It's tossup because of Rohrabacher.

With that said I agree that CA-39 is lean R and CA-49 is Likely D

[Coastal Elitist]

Dems have won Aliso and Costa Mesa in the last couple elections.

Irvine has given Dems huge margins and Tustin swung strongly to Clinton.

Voter reg is a trailing indicator.

You ask why I think Touda will pull it out. Have you seen Dana? I mean have you really seen him? He’s a hot ing Mess, like some decaying piece of soviet brutalist architecture...

In 2014 Aliso Viejo, Costa Mesa and Tustin all voted for Kashkari over Brown and Irvine narrowly went to Brown.

In 2012 Aliso Viejo and Costa Mesa voted for Romney over Obama. Tustin narrowly went for Obama and Irvine was a 7,000 vote win for Obama. Same story in the Senate race between Emken and Feinstein

In 2010 all four of those voted for Whitman over Brown and Fiorina over Boxer. Interestingly all four of those went for Obama in 2008, but then flipped back.

So no they haven't all gone to the Democrats in recent elections and Irvine hasn't given Dems huge margins. Now Trump lost Orange County because he did extremely poor in Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Costa Mesa, Irvine, Anaheim, Lake Forest and Mission Viejo. All the Orange County cities swung towards Clinton, but that doesn't mean that they won't swing back like they've done before.

[Coastal Elitist]

This is a state senate race, but oh well.

A poll conducted by FM3 Research shows that there is a strong possibility that GOP Senate Leader, Patricia Bates, could lose her seat.

Bates (R): 47%
Castellano (D): 43%

Trump approval is -10. District went to Clinton by 2 points in 2016.

http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/docs/220-5246-D1A-CA-SD36-Public-Memo-1-1.pdf

Internal polling for state races are not reliable. Also Jerry Brown has a lower approval rating than Trump in this district (42% for Brown, 45% for Trump). This should be moved to the statewide thread as it's off topic. A d internal down 4 means she's probably down like 8.

[Coastal Elitist]

Poll from SurveyUSA has Valadao up 11 points in CA-21. He's up 50-39 and winning 42% of Hispanics,
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8c4f7fef-0470-425f-a21f-e828438aac5e&c=100

Hopefully, SurveyUSA will do polls of all the competitive California districts.

[Coastal Elitist]

PPIC polled all 11 competitive California districts together. The competitive districts are 4, 7, 10, 16, 21, 25, 39, 45, 48, 49, and 50.

The results were 44% for the Republican candidate and 43% for the Democratic candidate.

Overall voters also favor a candidate that is experienced.
http://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-september-2018.pdf