California House Races Megathread

[ON Progressive]

Interesting. Why would a Clinton +8 district shift so hard to Republicans? And why does Cisneros already have an underwater favorability?

Cisneros is leading among Asian voters by only 2 points (43%-41%), losing badly even among whites with college degrees, and while he’s doing well with Hispanics, they’re not really planning to vote. He’s a pretty brazen carpetbagger (he moved from Maxine Waters’s district in LA) and is getting hit hard over the sexual harassment allegations on TV.

Democrats nominated a very flawed candidate, Republicans nominated their best recruit of the cycle, and invested enough money to shift it towards Team Red.

Kim is well-liked and voters think she’s in tune with the district. She’s the new Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, basically.

This poll has Trump at 47-47 approval-disapproval in a Clinton +8 seat, so I would take it with a grain of salt.

[Jeppe]

Interesting. Why would a Clinton +8 district shift so hard to Republicans? And why does Cisneros already have an underwater favorability?

Cisneros is leading among Asian voters by only 2 points (43%-41%), losing badly even among whites with college degrees, and while he’s doing well with Hispanics, they’re not really planning to vote. He’s a pretty brazen carpetbagger (he moved from Maxine Waters’s district in LA) and is getting hit hard over the sexual harassment allegations on TV.

Democrats nominated a very flawed candidate, Republicans nominated their best recruit of the cycle, and invested enough money to shift it towards Team Red.

Kim is well-liked and voters think she’s in tune with the district. She’s the new Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, basically.

This poll has Trump at 47-47 approval-disapproval in a Clinton +8 seat, so I would take it with a grain of salt.

Probably because Hispanic % of the electorate is lower than in 2016. Monmouth is the best pollster there is, according to Nate Silver, I think that’s something they would’ve looked into if they were concerned about it being wildly wrong.

[ON Progressive]

Interesting. Why would a Clinton +8 district shift so hard to Republicans? And why does Cisneros already have an underwater favorability?

Cisneros is leading among Asian voters by only 2 points (43%-41%), losing badly even among whites with college degrees, and while he’s doing well with Hispanics, they’re not really planning to vote. He’s a pretty brazen carpetbagger (he moved from Maxine Waters’s district in LA) and is getting hit hard over the sexual harassment allegations on TV.

Democrats nominated a very flawed candidate, Republicans nominated their best recruit of the cycle, and invested enough money to shift it towards Team Red.

Kim is well-liked and voters think she’s in tune with the district. She’s the new Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, basically.

This poll has Trump at 47-47 approval-disapproval in a Clinton +8 seat, so I would take it with a grain of salt.

Probably because Hispanic % of the electorate is lower than in 2016. Monmouth is the best pollster there is, according to Nate Silver, I think that’s something they would’ve looked into if they were concerned about it being wildly wrong.

There’s also a large Asian and college white population here though. Neither of those groups are Trump supporting groups at all. This isn’t like TX-23 or CA-21 where you either have Hispanics or really Republican white voters.

[Florida Man for Crime]

This poll has Trump at 47-47 approval-disapproval in a Clinton +8 seat, so I would take it with a grain of salt.

Remember that particularly in a lot of these sun belt seats with substantial non-white populations, the midterm electorate may look significantly different from the 2016 electorate. It is not entirely implausible that Trump could have better approval ratings among 2018 LVs than among 2016 voters.

[Florida Man for Crime]

There’s also a large Asian and college white population here though. Neither of those groups are Trump supporting groups at all. This isn’t like TX-23 or CA-21 where you either have Hispanics or really Republican white voters.

There is also a large, high turnout Yorba Linda population.

[Blair]

Will find the link latter but the CLF (Paul Ryan's SUPER-PAC) has spend $1.3 million already attacking Cisnerso- and he's got a lot to be attacked over.

Whilst there's still a chance that this seat gets brought over the edge by the National, and State environment (as happened in a fair few 2010 seats where the GOP recruits were awful) it's looking worse for the Democrats each day.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Interesting. Why would a Clinton +8 district shift so hard to Republicans? And why does Cisneros already have an underwater favorability?

Cisneros is leading among Asian voters by only 2 points (43%-41%), losing badly even among whites with college degrees, and while he’s doing well with Hispanics, they’re not really planning to vote. He’s a pretty brazen carpetbagger (he moved from Maxine Waters’s district in LA) and is getting hit hard over the sexual harassment allegations on TV.

Democrats nominated a very flawed candidate, Republicans nominated their best recruit of the cycle, and invested enough money to shift it towards Team Red.

Kim is well-liked and voters think she’s in tune with the district. She’s the new Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, basically.

Is this sarcastic?

She won an Assembly District during an abysmal turnout year in the 2014 wave. Then promptly lost in 2016.

The only reason she has opened a lead is because Cisneros is a poor candidate. This seat will be a tossup in 2020, and the district will not be "oMg tItANiuM R" with her as the incumbent.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1042007681106694145?s=21

I am vindicated! People just did not believe me when I said that we’ll probably win CA-45 and CA-48 way before we win CA-39.

How so?  1) The candidate you wanted still would've done much worse, 2) this is one poll.

[Jeppe]

Interesting. Why would a Clinton +8 district shift so hard to Republicans? And why does Cisneros already have an underwater favorability?

Cisneros is leading among Asian voters by only 2 points (43%-41%), losing badly even among whites with college degrees, and while he’s doing well with Hispanics, they’re not really planning to vote. He’s a pretty brazen carpetbagger (he moved from Maxine Waters’s district in LA) and is getting hit hard over the sexual harassment allegations on TV.

Democrats nominated a very flawed candidate, Republicans nominated their best recruit of the cycle, and invested enough money to shift it towards Team Red.

Kim is well-liked and voters think she’s in tune with the district. She’s the new Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, basically.

Is this sarcastic?

She won an Assembly District during an abysmal turnout year in the 2014 wave. Then promptly lost in 2016.

The only reason she has opened a lead is because Cisneros is a poor candidate. This seat will be a tossup in 2020, and the district will not be "oMg tItANiuM R" with her as the incumbent.

Kim outperformed Trump by 14 points as a first-term incumbent against the previous, well-known incumbent. Obviously, it won't be titanium R in 2020, but she's established herself as one of the few GOP candidates this year who can effectively run well-ahead of Trump in their district.

Kim's polling better than Will Hurd and Carlos Curbelo, so I think it's apt to make that comparison between her and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Obviously, Democrats nominating somebody facing a #MeToo scandal plays a huge part, and Jay Chen (probably frontrunner for Dem nomination in 2020) will present a much tougher challenge for Kim.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Interesting. Why would a Clinton +8 district shift so hard to Republicans? And why does Cisneros already have an underwater favorability?

Cisneros is leading among Asian voters by only 2 points (43%-41%), losing badly even among whites with college degrees, and while he’s doing well with Hispanics, they’re not really planning to vote. He’s a pretty brazen carpetbagger (he moved from Maxine Waters’s district in LA) and is getting hit hard over the sexual harassment allegations on TV.

Democrats nominated a very flawed candidate, Republicans nominated their best recruit of the cycle, and invested enough money to shift it towards Team Red.

Kim is well-liked and voters think she’s in tune with the district. She’s the new Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, basically.

Is this sarcastic?

She won an Assembly District during an abysmal turnout year in the 2014 wave. Then promptly lost in 2016.

The only reason she has opened a lead is because Cisneros is a poor candidate. This seat will be a tossup in 2020, and the district will not be "oMg tItANiuM R" with her as the incumbent.

Kim outperformed Trump by 14 points as a first-term incumbent against the previous, well-known incumbent. Obviously, it won't be titanium R in 2020, but she's established herself as one of the few GOP candidates this year who can effectively run well-ahead of Trump in their district.

Kim's polling better than Will Hurd and Carlos Curbelo, so I think it's apt to make that comparison between her and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Obviously, Democrats nominating somebody facing a #MeToo scandal plays a huge part, and Jay Chen (probably frontrunner for Dem nomination in 2020) will present a much tougher challenge for Kim.

Cisneros is not facing a #MeToo scandal, but thanks for playing

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1042007681106694145?s=21

I am vindicated! People just did not believe me when I said that we’ll probably win CA-45 and CA-48 way before we win CA-39.

I believed ya!

Not sure how bold it is, but I think Kim will be the only OC Republican to win their house race. I just don't think Cisneros is a great candidate for the 39th, although that point could be moot by November. It'll definitely flip by 2020.

On the other side, I think Walters is looking like an easier pickup by the day.

[Coastal Elitist]

I tried telling you guys that Kim is a stronger candidate, but no you all thought a lottery winner is the stronger candidate. Also the Vietnamese are more conservative than people on Atlas think. They just really hated Trump which is why Clinton won this district.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Either Democrats are leading by 9 points in the GCB, or Kim is leading by 10 in CA-39. The two things can't be true simultaneously. And when in doubt, I'd pick the score we have more evidence for (a robust average vs one poll with a 300 sample size).

Of course Kim can still win, but not by that margin.

[Oryxslayer]

Interestingly CA-39 and CA-45 seem to have switched places in their tossup category. CA-45 started  out as R-tilted thanks to its PVI, but candidate quality (mainly Walters campaigning like she is in a R+10 seat) has swung it towards the center, and CA-39 started out as D-tilted but now has moved towards the right thanks to candidate quality.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Kim is not winning people, get a grip. And Cisneros didn't sexually harass anyone it's garbage right wing propaganda. GOP couldn't even get a candidate on the ballot for U.S. Senate! The GOP voters in this state are going to stay home b/c of that!

[Jeppe]

Kim is not winning people, get a grip. And Cisneros didn't sexually harass anyone it's garbage right wing propaganda. GOP couldn't even get a candidate on the ballot for U.S. Senate! The GOP voters in this state are going to stay home b/c of that!

The incumbent Democratic state senator for this area got recalled by 16 points in June, and this iteration of the district was noticeably even more Democratic than CA-39 was in 2016.

Republican support in this part of California isn't budging because Hispanic turnout has flat-lined from 2014, and because Cisneros isn't winning over Asian voters by a convincing margin.

It's like TX-23, where we lost a 54-44 Clinton state senate seat that we already had. Hispanic turnout is killing us in these districts that depend on high Hispanic turnout to overcome the conservative white vote (although NM-02 is proving to be an exception to this trend).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1042473441943867392

[Greedo punched first]

Any chance turnout in Los Angeles County for CA-39 is decent? Cisneros needs it to win.

[Coastal Elitist]

Any chance turnout in Los Angeles County for CA-39 is decent? Cisneros needs it to win.

Hopefully not

[Technocracy Timmy]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1042473441943867392

They’re not gonna be even 1/5 as crucial as white college grads are in many of these districts. TX-23 and CA-21 are the only ones that come to mind where Hispanic turnout could push Dems over the edge. But this isn’t a group that shows up for midterms and not even Trump got them mobilized beyond increasing their share of the electorate from 10->11% (if you believe exit polls) or 8->9% (if you believe post election surveys). And most of that increase would’ve happened regardless of Trump being the nominee.

[Virginiá]

http://www.latimes.com/local/abcarian/la-me-abcarian-katies-midterms-20180922-story.html

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It'll be a good day for America when Millennials move up in age and displace boneheads like that debate moderator. Guys with no experience are outsiders with fresh ideas, and women are just out of their depth. Sure.

That question seems pretty stupid regardless of gender, though. Implying that to be worth voting for as a candidate for Congress, you need experience as a Congressperson, literally makes no sense. Steve Knight had no experience in Congress when he first ran ...for Congress. No first time House candidate has experience in the House.

I wish someone would have called him out for this nonsense.

[socaldem]

I was listening to the NPR show Left Right and Center and they had two experienced Orange County politicos on to discuss the races and both the Republican and Gustavo Arellano thought that Dems would probably only pick up one Orange County district--very pessimistic.

In any case, I think Dems pick up three out of four...

CA49 - Likely Dem - An easy win for Levin. This district is changing fast and Levin's a good candidate who is able to get cross-over support in the most GOP part of the district...

CA45 - Leans Dem - Mimi Waters had been seen as a relatively strong incumbent but she's made some gaffes. Meanwhile, Katie Porter isn't a perfect candidate. But I think the district dynamics here are just too much for Republicans to overcome.

Irvine and Tustin provide a solid blue base and feature exactly the suburban moderate type voters that Trump has had the most trouble with. Moreover, while there is a high Asian-American population in the district, the immigrant community in Irvine is more educated and likely includes more American-born Asian-Americans than CD39 or CD48. That will result in turnout dynamics and ideology that more closely aligns the communities in the district with white liberals.

Polling shows that Porter has a slight lead here and I believe it.

CA48 - Slight Lean Dem - Dana Rohrabacher is a mess and I think Harley Rouda has done pretty well. But we should not underestimate the extreme Republican-ness of Newport Beach and Huntington Beach. Newport Beach Republicans aren't generally Trump fans but do they want Nancy Pelosi to run congress? Trump/Rohrabacher are perfect for the Republican politics of Huntington Beach which is known to have more of a racist/jingoist Republicanism that prefers the beach and bar scene to the country club where Trump--even as a country club owner--may still be considered tacky.

That said, there are strong Dem areas--mainly Laguna Beach/Aliso Viejo and Costa Mesa but low Latino turnout in Costa Mesa can be killer.

I'm surprised by the polling that shows a tie but hoping to see some growth from Rouda next month.

CA39 - Slight Lean Rep - What a mess. Kim is a good candidate although i don't think she's the rock star she's been made out to be. It's just that Cisneros is a disaster. Plus the district dynamics are tough. Dems rely on strong turnout from Latinos and Asian-Americans. The Asian-American vote in this district, meanwhile, is heavily Chinese (LA County) and Korean (Orange County).

The Chinese vote is quite insular and the community in the district includes many relatively new immigrants. Unlike in Monterey Park--where there's a strong Judy-Chu-run Chinese-American Democratic machine, the Republicans have historically had stronger ties to the Chinese vote in Hacienda Heights, Walnut, and Diamond Bar. Sen. Ling Ling Chang, Mei Mei Huff, and several past and present Walnut city council members... Of course, Young Kim being Korean along with State Assemblyman Choi also helps.

The white voters in the district, meanwhile, in Fullerton, Brea, and Yorba Linda tend to include more Trumpian tea-party types than you might find in CA45 or CA49. Unless Cisneros can figure out how to get support from Chinese-Americans, he's going to be sunk.

[Coastal Elitist]

Here's a breakdown of Trump approval above 40% in California according to Ipsos:

CA-1: 51%
CA-4: 50%
CA-23: 50%
CA-8: 49%
CA-50: 48%
CA-22: 48%
CA-42: 47%
CA-36: 45%
CA-21: 45%
CA-10: 44%
CA-25: 43%
CA-45: 43%
CA-48: 43%
CA-3: 43%
CA-39: 42%
CA-49: 42%
CA-7: 42%
CA-16: 41%
CA-24: 40%
CA-31: 40%
CA-26: 40%
CA-41: 40%

Here are my ratings.
Safe R: CA-1, CA-4, CA-8, CA-22, CA-23, CA-42
Likely R: CA-21, CA-50
Lean R: CA-39
Tossup: CA-10, CA-25, CA-45, CA-48
Likely D: CA-49

[Coastal Elitist]

I was listening to the NPR show Left Right and Center and they had two experienced Orange County politicos on to discuss the races and both the Republican and Gustavo Arellano thought that Dems would probably only pick up one Orange County district--very pessimistic.

In any case, I think Dems pick up three out of four...

CA49 - Likely Dem - An easy win for Levin. This district is changing fast and Levin's a good candidate who is able to get cross-over support in the most GOP part of the district...

CA45 - Leans Dem - Mimi Waters had been seen as a relatively strong incumbent but she's made some gaffes. Meanwhile, Katie Porter isn't a perfect candidate. But I think the district dynamics here are just too much for Republicans to overcome.

Irvine and Tustin provide a solid blue base and feature exactly the suburban moderate type voters that Trump has had the most trouble with. Moreover, while there is a high Asian-American population in the district, the immigrant community in Irvine is more educated and likely includes more American-born Asian-Americans than CD39 or CD48. That will result in turnout dynamics and ideology that more closely aligns the communities in the district with white liberals.

Polling shows that Porter has a slight lead here and I believe it.

CA48 - Slight Lean Dem - Dana Rohrabacher is a mess and I think Harley Rouda has done pretty well. But we should not underestimate the extreme Republican-ness of Newport Beach and Huntington Beach. Newport Beach Republicans aren't generally Trump fans but do they want Nancy Pelosi to run congress? Trump/Rohrabacher are perfect for the Republican politics of Huntington Beach which is known to have more of a racist/jingoist Republicanism that prefers the beach and bar scene to the country club where Trump--even as a country club owner--may still be considered tacky.

That said, there are strong Dem areas--mainly Laguna Beach/Aliso Viejo and Costa Mesa but low Latino turnout in Costa Mesa can be killer.

I'm surprised by the polling that shows a tie but hoping to see some growth from Rouda next month.

CA39 - Slight Lean Rep - What a mess. Kim is a good candidate although i don't think she's the rock star she's been made out to be. It's just that Cisneros is a disaster. Plus the district dynamics are tough. Dems rely on strong turnout from Latinos and Asian-Americans. The Asian-American vote in this district, meanwhile, is heavily Chinese (LA County) and Korean (Orange County).

The Chinese vote is quite insular and the community in the district includes many relatively new immigrants. Unlike in Monterey Park--where there's a strong Judy-Chu-run Chinese-American Democratic machine, the Republicans have historically had stronger ties to the Chinese vote in Hacienda Heights, Walnut, and Diamond Bar. Sen. Ling Ling Chang, Mei Mei Huff, and several past and present Walnut city council members... Of course, Young Kim being Korean along with State Assemblyman Choi also helps.

The white voters in the district, meanwhile, in Fullerton, Brea, and Yorba Linda tend to include more Trumpian tea-party types than you might find in CA45 or CA49. Unless Cisneros can figure out how to get support from Chinese-Americans, he's going to be sunk.

Irvine and Tustin aren't a solid blue base. They have slim Democratic voter registration advantages.  Lake Forest and Mission Viejo both have strong Republican voter registration edges. CA-45 will be hard for a Democrat to win. Costa Mesa and Aliso Viejo aren't strong Democratic areas they both have a Republican voter registration edge. You just explained why CA-48 will be hard to win, but then you're surprised that the latest poll is a tie, so why do you have it as Lean D. If any other Republican was running in CA-48 they would easily win. Huntington Beach and Newport Beach might just be too Republican for Rouda to win this district. It's tossup because of Rohrabacher.

With that said I agree that CA-39 is lean R and CA-49 is Likely D

[socaldem]

Dems have won Aliso and Costa Mesa in the last couple elections.

Irvine has given Dems huge margins and Tustin swung strongly to Clinton.

Voter reg is a trailing indicator.

You ask why I think Touda will pull it out. Have you seen Dana? I mean have you really seen him? He’s a hot ing Mess, like some decaying piece of soviet brutalist architecture...