This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

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Truss (lack of a clear ideology)

Soft disagree - one thing I will say for Truss is that she's been fairly consistent in her Britannia Unchained free-market liberalism outlook. She's just now starting to sprinkle some cultural conservatism in with that.

That's fair - that was a bad-faith argument from me. Speeches like this address to the Lowy Institute suggest that she does have a coherent strategy/ideology (using a combination of the free market and treaties to draw neutral and non-western nations into the UK/NATO spheres of influence), one that's more Thatcher than Johnson.

I think my concerns are more that she doesn't have the character, or leadership characteristics to back it up (see the aftermath of diplomatic efforts in Australia and Russia), which feed into the stereotype of her being a lightweight. I'm trying to watch my tone (and argument), because I do feel there is some sexism in that characterisation (all female Conservative ministers seem to end up caricatured in both the traditional and social media as either airheads, the Wicked Witch of the West or a mocking combination of the two, which is more than a tad troubling).

Additionally, her tenure as Justice Secretary, where she had some tussles with the independence of the judiciary, gives me pause, especially given the approach of the Conservatives since the 2019 prorogation.

Edit: that was more of an essay than I planned. Apologies - Atlas and cider are not a wise combination…

Thatcher's?

Älska, unfortunately (it's a long story). Thatchers would have been a good choice (as ever) this week though, given the spectre of a certain PM's departure seems to be looming over the party.

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The Defence Secretary making a public deal of cancelling a family holiday to deal with Ukraine, which has gotten both the Evening Standard and the Telegraph politics team excited for some reason. Admirable yes, but only noteworthy because the implication is that Wallace is drawing a contrast (for the purpose of his fellow MPs) with Raab staying on holiday abroad during the fall of Kabul - which led to his fall from grace.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BWallaceMP/status/1492820627908177925
I promise I won’t keep pushing ‘surprise PM’ candidate Ben Wallace conspiracies in this thread, but given how much his stock has risen in the last month, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as the defacto candidate for FCO Secretary under a new PM (who will either want to demote Truss, or be Truss herself, creating a vacancy), or at least floated as a consensus leadership candidate by a couple of backbenchers later in the year.

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I wonder if the MoD has been cursed- all the Secretaries of State come in with high prospects, do relatively well (with one exception) and then get ejected- Fox had Werrity, Fallon got outed for alleged inappropriate behaviour, Williamson got sacked in an extremely brutal way and Mordaunt got sacked for not kissing Big Dog’s ring.

Tbh, no Conservative with the singular exception of Philip Hammond seems to have been Defence Sec and gone on to greater things in the past 20 years.

If there is a curse - I bet it started with Portillo, on the night he went from Defence Sec and future PM to an election night byword.

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Slightly interesting - Sir Roger Gale is leading calls to condemn Patel over her handling of Ukraine. As a public critic of Johnson (was among those to submit a 1922 letter), this seems to fit into broader criticisms of the government.

I doubt that there will be any move to depose Johnson before the May elections now, but interesting to see this level of criticism from the “Johnson out” caucus.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SirRogerGale/status/1501186187565936641

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Reviving this thread due to partygate news. While it seems unlikely Johnson will face a serious challenge before May 6th, the upcoming publication of the Gray Report, and public backlash against the PM and Chancellor’s FPN fines mean that one or two MPs will likely break cover and come out against Johnson - and given the high threshold, every rebel, and more importantly, every 1922 letter counts.

The first to break cover is Nigel Mills, who says that Johnson’s position is no longer tenable:
https://mobile.twitter.com/GeorgiaZemoreyR/status/1514140327275282434

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And more fines for the PM and other leading Tory figures are still highly possible.

Yeah, FPN no. 2 has been released this evening, and both the Telegraph and the Mirror seem confident that there's at least one or two more to come...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/13/exclusive-boris-johnson-facing-second-partygate-fine-aides-leaving/

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Johnson’s performance at PMQs was just poor. He threw the same Corbyn lines at Starmer again and again, and had to spend most of the time denying he’d made various comments about the BBC. 

I felt Starmer did well (he felt comfortable enough to make a quip about Corbyn having the whip withdrawn, and seemed more at ease than he used to), but Johnson seemed confident enough in his position that the PM was able to just BS his way through the session.

I’m just sick of Johnson using Ukraine as a shield against any form of criticism, and being given a blank cheque by backbenchers whenever he screws up. Feels like the Tories will need to have a truly awful night in the locals, and then Wakefield before his position is even remotely vulnerable. Just disappointing.

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ConservativeHome’s monthly poll of Tory party members approval of the cabinet was released today.



Ben Wallace continues to dominate, as he has done since February (no prizes for guessing what triggered his rise). Nadhim Zahawi continues to bounce between second and third place - definitely a dark horse and probable Great Office candidate under the next leader.

Truss has recovered a bit after her stumbles in Moscow dented her popularity earlier in the year - still feels like a frontrunner.

Patel has recovered, from a negative approval rate, and bottom of the list last month, to the middle of the pack. Whatever you think of the Rwanda policy (not a fan myself), it’s obviously working for Patel amongst a small but key demographic.

Boris and Sunak on the other hand have plunged to historic lows - a far cry from ‘20 and ‘21. Sunak now seems entirely implausible as a successor.

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What did Ben Eliott do to have such low net approvals?

He’s not an MP, but is a longstanding co-chairman of the party based on his funding prowess. Elliot was a low profile figure with next to no name recognition until recently. However, the spotlight was pointed in his direction during the early part of the Ukraine war.

The luxury concierge service he runs (Quintessentially) has been found to have Russian ties (boasting about servicing the ‘Russian elite’ until their website was hastily rewritten after the story broke) and he was found to have extracted millions in party donations from sympathetic Russian oligarchs. He hasn’t done anything illegal - but it’s his actions are seen as incongruent with Johnson’s rhetoric on Russia, undermining the party’s messaging, and open them up to another charge of hypocrisy.

This is a second-tier scandal for the Tories right now (they’ve got bigger things to worry about), but could be damaging at a General Elecrtion.

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A quick cabinet reshuffle now being touted as an option for BoJo if this week's results are indeed as bad as some Tories are now genuinely starting to fear.

But who to promote who is both a) actually good and b) sufficiently loyal?

Following up your February “reset reshuffle” with a May “reassurance reshuffle” feels increasingly like reshuffling rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.
 

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New 1922 Committee Executive has been announced:

Incoming Executive:

Chair: Sir Graham Brady
Joint Vice-Chair

• William Wragg
• Nusrat Ghani

Joint Executive secretaries

• Bob Blackman
• Gary Sambrook

Executive:

• Aaron Bell
• Miriam Cates
• Jo Gideon
• Richard Graham
• Chris Green
• Robert Halfon
• Sally-Ann Hart
• Andrew Jones
• Tom Randall
• David Simmonds
• John Stevenson
• Martin Vickers

Outgoing Executive:

Chair: Sir Graham Brady
Joint Vice-Chair

• William Wragg
• Nusrat Ghani

Joint Executive secretaries

• Bob Blackman
• Gary Sambrook

Treasurer: Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown

Executive members:

• Karl McCartney
• Sir Bernard Jenkin
• Jason McCartney
• Nicola Richards
• Sheryll Murray
• Richard Holden
• Martin Vickers

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The Conservative Home cabinet poll for October has been released. Wallace still reigns supreme, but Braverman sits near the bottom of the pack (below anonymous ministers like Alister Jack), and the noted moderates like Andrew Mitchell seem to fare poorly. Badenoch remains strikingly popular - although apparently James Cleverly has established a following too.

Gavin Williamson is (perhaps unsurprisingly) highly unpopular.

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In party infighting news a formal complaint has been levelled against Gavin Williamson at CCHQby Wendy Morton (Truss’ ineffective Chief Whip):

Forget Suella Braverman for a moment. Rishi Sunak’s political judgment is being questioned over another senior appointment to his team. Tortoise has learned that a formal complaint has been submitted to the Conservative Party regarding “threatening” behaviour by cabinet minister Gavin Williamson.

Wendy Morton, the former chief whip under Liz Truss, has passed on details of “vile and threatening messages” she received in the days before the former prime minister resigned, sources say. One MP said the submission included screen grabs of messages sent by Williamson, himself a former chief whip. He said there was “quite a bit of evidence”, and that a number of MPs were willing to back Morton up. Another suggested there was a misogynistic undertone to the content, with messages sent over the course of several weeks.

Williamson played a key role in Sunak’s leadership campaign during the summer, when fellow Conservative MPs alleged he was “lending votes” to tactically improve Sunak’s chances. He was made minister without portfolio in Sunak’s first Cabinet.

A former minister who had previously backed Sunak said his appointment of Williamson was “absurd” and had “surprised lots of people”. Williamson has been previously sacked twice: once as defence secretary, following a Cabinet Office investigation which concluded he had leaked confidential information about Huawei despite his denial, then as education secretary following the pandemic exams debacle. Morton confirmed she has submitted a complaint, but declined to comment further. A Conservative Party spokesperson said the party had “a robust complaints process in place.” A friend of Williamson, who has yet to be made aware of the complaint, said he “strongly refutes these allegations” and is “very happy to share all communications with the former chief whip with CCHQ if needed”.

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Williamson must have so much dirt on his fellow Tories, mustn't he

It certainly feels that way. Hard to interpret the rather surreal scenario of “chief whip credibly intimidated by backbencher” without it.

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The Morton-Williamson WhatsApps that triggered the formal complaint have been leaked to the Times:
https://twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1588945243336232960

Edit at 20.24: No.10 spokesman refuses to confirm whether Sunak has confidence in Williamson, per Gabriel Pogrund at the Times. 

Edit on Sunday: Oliver Dowden says Sunak has confidence in Williamson, and lots of people had problems with Morton.

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Two more female MPs (anonymous) have lodged complaints against Williamson, per the Times. One says Williamson raised aspects of her personal life to try and force her to drop her position on a policy. Williamson allies say he raised the issue in a “pastoral” context - a word that’s never been used to describe a man who poses with horse whips and cultivated a reputation as “master of the dark arts”.

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https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1589714935767891968

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Williamson's former deputy chief whip says he once paid an MP's debt, waving the cheque beneath her nose and bragging about how he now "owned" them.
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1590043429656223744

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Not to be outdone by Gavin Williamson, MoJ civil servants are alleging that Dominic Raab created a hostile environment, in a Pippa Crerar piece in the Guardian:

Several sources told the Guardian that about 15 staff from the justice secretary’s private office were taken into a room where departmental chiefs acknowledged they may be anxious about his behaviour and gave them the option of moving roles.

Some of the civil servants were said to have been in tears during the meeting and several subsequently decided to move to other positions in the department, with one thought to be considering leaving entirely, although sources suggested a couple of staff had since returned.

It is also understood that Antonia Romeo, the MoJ permanent secretary, had to speak to Raab when he returned to the department to warn him that he must treat staff professionally and with respect amid unhappiness about his return. One source, who was not in the room at the time, claimed she had “read him the riot act”.

The Guardian has spoken to multiple sources in the MoJ who claimed that Raab, who first held the post between September 2021 and September 2022, when he was sacked by Liz Truss, had created a “culture of fear” in the department.

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Two more Tory MPs standing down:

• George Eustace - Environment Secretary under Johnson. Sitting on a 8,700 vote majority (could be risky), and not invited back to cabinet by either Truss or Sunak after his 2 year stint under Johnson. Probably discouraged that there's anywhere left for his career to go.
• Edward Timpson - MP for Eddisbury since 2019, previously MP for Crewe (from a by-election win in 2008, to losing the seat to Labour by 48 votes in 2017), currently sitting on an 18,000 vote majority. Son of noted locksmith (and Timpson brand owner) Sir John Timpson.

ConHome seem to be keeping a running tally of retirements here. We're up to 17 so far.

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It's incredible that the Tories were just that far behind in the Blair years that they could lose by-elections in seats like Ipswich and Romsey of all places. It's been a rough few parliaments for Labour, by-election wise (see 2021), but they've still had some bright spots (gains in Corby, Wakefield, and holds in places like Batley and Spen).

Makes you wonder - how long will Hartlepool stand as the most recent Tory by-election gain? Could be months, or it could be decades, given past precedence...

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Makes you wonder - how long will Hartlepool stand as the most recent Tory by-election gain? Could be months, or it could be decades, given past precedence...

Speaking of, I reckon they would've picked up Hartlepool in 2019 had it not been for the f--king Brexit Party.

There’s ongoing discussion about whether the Brexit Party meaningfully benefited the Tories in 2019, or whether they actually split the vote in a number of marginals. Certainly, the presence of the Brexit Party on the ballot appears have actually saved prominent Labour MPs like Ed Miliband and Yvette Cooper - who’d have lost a straight match-up with the Tories.

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Deselection watch in Hastings and Rye.

The old seat of former Home Secretary Amber Rudd, the current MP is Sally-Ann Hart, who improved Rudd's 300 vote majority to a 4,000 majority in 2019.

Her local party has failed to reselect her, and it looks like they're seeking another candidate.

Notably, the new pressure group Conservative Democratic Organisation (spearheaded by Johnsonian acolytes Lord Cruddas and Priti Patel), have thrown their weight behind the deselection, in their quest to "restore power to local party groups" - which is sort of a trojan horse to try and give the local parties more of a say in leadership elections, and part of a broader pro-Johnson effort - it's all a bit arcane and weird.

Understanding is that the selection now goes to the broader membership in the constituency. Hart isn't excluded from running as a candidate in selection, but that opposition from the local party would basically leave her without an effective chance of winning.

Speculation from various quarters (but, as is always the case with selection fights, led by Michael Crick), is that CCHQ will probably put some pressure on them to get behind Hart, although it's not clear if/when that will happen.

If anyone has a sense why Hart has fallen out with the local party, would be very interested to hear. She's said some controversial things about religious minorities, and adults with learning difficulties, but nothing as brazen as the sort of thing Lee Anderson or Jonathan Gullis gets away with.

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Two more retirements:

No.1: Kinda expected, given the persistent peerage rumours - but noteworthy nonetheless.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1623761334276947970

No.2: far more marginal - definitely a headache for the local party.
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1623761174595612672

Brings us to 19 retirements.

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Two more retirements, bringing us to 21:

Sir Paul Beresford (MP for Mole Valley). Part-time dentist, who went (very slightly) viral in 2018 when he repeatedly asked an SNP MP with an accent to repeat himself, because Beresford couldn’t understand him. Mole Valley is typically pretty safe, but his 24k  majority was halved to 12k over the Lib Dems in 2019 - so unclear if he’s worried about losing, or just not interested in being in opposition.

Stephen McPartland (MP for Stevenage). Seems to be a somewhat independent voice - definitely a little offbeat (the man cited the elevation of John Major, as a working class man, as one of the party’s crowning achievements in his resignation letter). Stevenage is one of those seats that swings when the government changes (he picked it up in 2010, won a 8.5k Tory majority in 2019, and a 3.3k majority in 2017, which would be very, very dicey on current polling).