This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Torrain]

Sounds like things aren’t going too well down in Windsor (looks like Jamie Wallis wasn’t shortlisted, for the record. Can’t imagine the next meeting over in Bridgend will be much fun…)
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1695860957619028413

[Torrain]

Education Secretary having quite the hot-mic moment in a tough media round:
https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1698674935424581991
Although, it's not like the actual broadcast interview was much better. Given she's already in hot water over the whole concrete affair, and the papers have got hold of her £34m DofE office revamp plans, amid the whole RAAC charade, I'm starting to wonder whether she’ll make it to/past the Sunak reshuffle later this year.

[Torrain]

We should hear from her shortly...

Keegan is supposed to be answering an Urgent Question on RAAC in the Commons this afternoon, somewhere between DWP questions, the writ for the by-elections, swesting in new MPs, and a statement on the PSNI data breach. Most of which could involve new shadow ministers.

Manic first day back from recess

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Today in Tory comms - CCHQ asked Christian Wakeford to do a broadcast round for this evening. Might be a bit late for that.

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Truss has announced she's writing a book - "Ten Years to Save the West". Which, you know, big swing from someone who didn't make it to ten *weeks* in office to take that responsibility on.

It's being put out by Lord Ashcroft's "Biteback Publishing", the same people who brought us that David Cameron biography with the unsubstantiated rumour involving a particular farm animal.

It was previewed in an editorial she's written for the Mail today, and it's kinda fascinating how sharply she's pivoting towards the conservative US speech circuit. She endorses the GOP for next year's presidential election (Biden is a hardline socialist, apparently), hints at the existance of some sort of global left-wing conspiracy, and declares Greta Thunberg the head of some sort of civilisation-threatening, anti-capitalist movement. Like most things she does these days, it reads like a cover letter for a Heritage Foundation job.

[Torrain]

There’s a push from undisclosed ‘grandee’ MPs for Sunak to intervene in party selections, with a David Cameron-style “A-list”, driven by the discovery that 85% of new candidates selected for next year’s election are men.

Which, while well-intentioned, seems unlikely to be taken up, given Sunak’s unwillingness to upset the apple cart. Especially given the selection strategy has already been so distorted by MPs doing the chicken run to the remaining safe seats.

[Torrain]

The one I’m still stuck on is Nick Timothy. And the fact they sent him to Matt Hancock’s seat.

It’s no small thing to overturn a 23k majority. But all the ingredients for protest voting are there at this stage. Unpopular incumbent, new candidate with bad press (I’m sure Labour will run with the ‘author of the dementia tax’ thing), and a history of some pretty marginal results in the Blair years.

If Hancock did decide to leave early, for whatever reason, it would be a cracking by-election.

[Torrain]

Cash appears not to have been an isolated incident:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1701700976741376273

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I’ll always remember that time he tried to insult Liz Truss from his anonymous twitter account, and accidentally logged into his official MP handle instead.

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There’s a piece in the Telegraph today about the behind-the-scenes push for the Truss mini-budget to include a switch to a 20% Estonia style flat tax, at a cost of £41 billion Apparently Rees-Mogg wrote a 600 page ‘memo’ on it, which Truss was receptive to.

Apparently Kwarteng binned it as too extreme (although given the breakdown in relations, it’s possible he’s responsible for the story).

Given what attempted abolition of the 45% rate did to the pound, can’t imagine what this proposal would have done. Insane that they really thought they could fundamentally reshape the country with no mandate, no manifesto, and (as it turned out) absolutely no public support.

[Torrain]

Did the breakdown in relations occur when Truss sacked Kwarteng or later?

They’ve never reconciled from the firing - by all accounts they haven’t spoken since. Kwarteng was summoned back to London from New York, but wasn’t formally told what was in store. His story is that he found out he would be fired via a journalist’s tweet, while in the car to Downing Street.

He views it as a futile attempt to save her own skin, six days before she was forced to resign herself.

[Torrain]

Dehenna Davidson has resigned as Levelling Up Minister, citing chronic migraines and desire to spend more time in her constituency in the “limited time” remaining in this parliament.

Quite a trajectory - entered parliament in 2019, labelled a rising star, fired the opening shot for Truss’ leadership election, survived to hold her job under Sunak, and now headed out of both government and parliament, all within one term.

Worth noting - the word is that Sunak is planning a clear-out of ministers who are stepping down from Parliament next year, in the end-of-year reshuffle. So this might be part of that.

Edit: Jacob Young, 2019-intake MP for Redcar appointed to fill the slot.

[Torrain]

We’re back to leaked WhatsApps and hostile briefings - trouble is brewing
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1704445229523210578

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Former Welsh Secretary David Jones is retiring. He’s been MP for Clwyd West since 2005, and holds a 6.7k majority over Labour. It was held by Labour prior to that, with them holding a series of slim majorities since its creation in 1997.

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The Conservatives have picked their candidate for the new, pretty safe seat of Harpenden and Berkhamstead.

Slight snag - he’s a lobbyist who represented both the Russian Government, and a number of Russian state-owned companies throughout the 2000s.

Not ideal.

[Torrain]

Sir Alok Sharma has annoucned he's stepping down at the next election.

No great surprise, given he was reported as on Johnson's peerage list for months, and seemed content to step back from government when his COP chaimanship ended (not that Sunak gave him much choice).

Reading West in its current form is a classic bellwether - Tory until Labour took it in 1997, then flipping blue again in 2010. Sharma won slim 2.8k and 4.1k majorities in 2017 and 2019, so it's right on the line. It's being redrawn as Reading West and Mid Berkshire for the next election - which I believe make it rather more Conservative? Still getting to grips with the prediction tools.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1707871279645102474
Sunak unironically parroting the “15 minute city” conspiracy stuff… I’m so tired.

[Torrain]

Some Tory Kremlinology in the Times this week that seems interesting (grain of salt, though):

• No.10 assumes Braverman wants to be shuffled out. Exact quote: "If you want to be the Queen over the water, she might think it’s best to get off the island."
• Rees-Mogg wants to be Shadow Chancellor to a hardline LOTO.
• Badenoch held a meeting with key MP supporter about how to fine-tune her speech to appeal to the grassroots. They were, alas, overheard.
• Brandon Lewis (aided by Nadhim Zahawi) is sounding out support to become the Trussite standard bearer. Hearty chuckle at that one.
• Priti Patel is seen as an alternative standard-bearer for the mainstream right within the party- hence her reemergence, criticising Braverman this week, and defending multiculturalism.
• Mordaunt is campaigning hard on the dinner circuit, but fears she will lose Portsmouth North are dampening what remains of enthusiasm for her.
• The Tory Left lack a standardbearer. Gillian Keegan was briefly considered, but her stock has fallen, since, well, you know. Neither Hunt nor Tugendhat seem enthused, or plausible.
• Remarkably, Claire Coutinho, who's been in cabinet for mere weeks, is being touted as the continuity Sunak candidate.

Current suggestion seems to be that the reshuffle will happen in late October (after conference, the Rwanda ruling on Oct 9th, the by-elections on Oct 19th, and ahead of the King's Speech on Nov 7th and Autumn Statement on Nov 22nd).

[Torrain]

Huh - I hadn’t considered Patel as a contender until now. She’s clearly active (as you say, as a constituency MP and active backbencher on her key areas). But I’d assumed her leadership of the CDO (and therefore candidate selections) was the closest she’d planned to get to the leadership.

But I must say, after her interview about Braverman, she does seem to be actively taking steps. My money had been on Cleverly as the dark horse alternative to Braverman and Badenoch - but maybe Patel has better credentials in a race where one/both of that pair are leading the pack. 

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1708780396853313804
Kruger is, of course, Kruger. But still feels jarring to hear sitting MPs who aren't Andrew Bridgen espouse this level of conspiracy at party conference.

Edit: the Transport Secretary just did a whole routine on 15 minute cities on the main stage, so I guess that's just the vibe this year. Truss is about to speak on the fringe, so I assume she's not going to break the trend.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1708820765607387546

[Torrain]

Just to round off the day:

• The Energy Secretary cheerily admitted to making up a Labour plan to tax meat for her speech, and then spiralled while being pressed on the untruth by Sky’s Sophie Ridge (clip here).
• The Conservative Mayor of the West Midlands gave an emergency press conference denouncing the HS2 rollback, and refused to rule out resigning if Sunak does axe it.
• And the Tory candidate for London Mayor declared that the Jewish community in London is “scared” of Sadiq Khan. Which, just, eesh.

To end on a lighter note, here’s the Conservative Party Chairman reevaluating his life choices as he advertises Keir Starmer Flip Flops on national tv:

[Torrain]

Very tetchy Sunak interview for Sky News. Lots of talking over the interviewer.

He suggested Nigel Farage could be readmitted to the Conservatives - he’s attending his first Conservative conference this year, since he left the party, in 1993. Which is perhaps the most “abandon swing voters, throw red meat to an imagined base” move possible.

The whole thing builds to this fairly unconvincing pronouncement:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1709182436465062380

[Torrain]

Potentially some real parliamentary fireworks ahead:
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1709321886985846808

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Government minister Nus Ghani (herself the victim of religious discrimination), has been scathing about Susan Hall’s attacks on Sadiq Khan (and draws unfavourable comparisons with Zac Goldsmith’s campaign, which will raise some eyebrows). All with Steve Baker, of all MPs, nodding along in the background. I do wonder if we could be headed towards Hall being forced out, with someone like Paul Scully imposed instead at this point.