CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Torrain]

Trump is considering getting involved in the recall effort.

Presumably he would endorse Grenell. Would probably guarantee Newsom surviving and permanuke Faulconer's career at the same time.

Lmao, Donald Trump, the most popular man in the state of California.

Aye. In some ways it could be a good thing. If Trump's first action after leaving office is tanking what's left of the CA GOP, it could help blunt his grip over the party. Surely, he can only lose so many elections for them before the hero-worship starts to lessen

[Torrain]

....

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1385587301246541830

Dead on arrival

Rather like the elderly woman she hit while speeding.

For that reason alone, she's not going anywhere.

[Torrain]

Has there been any word on how long it’s going to take to count the ballots?

And will results from both questions be announced together? If not, it opens up a bunch of concerning hypotheticals:

1. Elder clearly wins the most votes on the second question, but the first question is too close to call, leading to a situation reminiscent of 2020, where he runs around yelling about how the election is going to be rigged, now that he’s the one who would take over.
2. Newson is recalled, but irregularities delay announcement of the second question, throwing the state into chaos while they await announcement of the new Governor.

[Torrain]

Has there been any word on how long it’s going to take to count the ballots?

And will results from both questions be announced together? If not, it opens up a bunch of concerning hypotheticals:

1. Elder clearly wins the most votes on the second question, but the first question is too close to call, leading to a situation reminiscent of 2020, where he runs around yelling about how the election is going to be rigged, now that he’s the one who would take over.
2. Newson is recalled, but irregularities delay announcement of the second question, throwing the state into chaos while they await announcement of the new Governor.

The two questions are on the same ballot and only fed into machines once under normal circumstances. One assumes and expects this means simultaneous release, it would under any other circumstance.

California is known now for its month-long vote counting process, but this is overblown. The majority of votes are there on election night - more do in this case thanks to the universal mail - and almost all straggler votes are counted by the next week. The month long count only matters if a race is narrow, as it is usually in races people pay attention to. Most important to projecting a race is the universe of remaining votes, and at the end of the night the counties will have an idea what that universe looks like. Decision desks then send those numbers through models and see if it is plausible for Yes - it will be Yes thanks to Trump changing voting habits and the Orange county data - to catch up. It likely will not. The situation that usually occurs is the statewide lead released on Election night immediately is proven by historical data to be insurmountable, and don't count out this also occuring, even if said lead is a little bit smaller than usual.

Thanks, that’s a solid answer. Good to know that it’s probably going to be a fairly benign election night. I think I’m just paranoid after November last year and the time it takes to count Democratic primary votes, especially post-COVID.

[Torrain]

Further to the discussion on maps, it looks like NOTA is on track to win more counties than Elder.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1435625159570837505?s=21

NOTA winning question 2 would probably be a good look for Newsom, and give the Dems in the state legislature a better platform to advocate reform of the recall process.

Will still be a pyrrhic victory if Newsom wins by a margins of <10%, which would be kinda embarrassing in CA of all places. Given the narrative about a close race, I doubt it will hurt him this year, but I think there's a chance it could come back to haunt him in the blanket primary next year though ("Gavin Newsom nearly handed CA over to a GOP governor who might have appointed Feinstein's successor. Do you really trust him with another term? Vote Chiang/Villarosa/etc").

[Torrain]

So I don’t know if you guys have caught this yet, but there’s going to be a press conference this afternoon between Larry Elder, and MeToo figure Rose McGowan. McGowan has spent the last week alleging that Newsom’s wife acted on behalf of Hollywood figures to try and “silence” her testimony regarding guys like Weinstein, who she was among the first to accuse.

McGowan appears a little unstable right now, having had several public outbursts (including a screaming match with a trans activist, a bizarre Colbert appearance, and declaring she was leaving the US forever a few years back). She got on team Tara Reade early on, and stuck around even after it was discredited.

I appreciate that the woman has a lot of trauma, and I don’t mean to ridicule her. I only bring this up because she’s going to hold a joint press conference with Elder (who has his own domestic issues, ie pulling a weapon on his ex), to either broadly attack Newsom, or endorse Elder.

Maybe this will be nothing, and I highly doubt it’s going to win Elder many/any votes. But it felt newsworthy enough to give you guys a heads up.

https://mobile.twitter.com/larryelder/status/1437064816984682500

[Torrain]

So I don’t know if you guys have caught this yet, but there’s going to be a press conference this afternoon between Larry Elder, and MeToo figure Rose McGowan. McGowan has spent the last week alleging that Newsom’s wife acted on behalf of Hollywood figures to try and “silence” her testimony regarding guys like Weinstein, who she was among the first to accuse.

McGowan appears a little unstable right now, having had several public outbursts (including a screaming match with a trans activist, a bizarre Colbert appearance, and declaring she was leaving the US forever a few years back). She got on team Tara Reade early on, and stuck around even after it was discredited.

I appreciate that the woman has a lot of trauma, and I don’t mean to ridicule her. I only bring this up because she’s going to hold a joint press conference with Elder (who has his own domestic issues, ie pulling a weapon on his ex), to either broadly attack Newsom, or endorse Elder.

Maybe this will be nothing, and I highly doubt it’s going to win Elder many/any votes. But it felt newsworthy enough to give you guys a heads up.

https://mobile.twitter.com/larryelder/status/1437064816984682500

Based on the tweets I'm seeing, this press conferences is as off the rails as you can imagine.

Yeah - I read Weigel’s run-down of the press conference, and it sounds like a car crash.
Mostly seems to be the two of them ranting.