COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Grassroots]

A rather unsurprising development:

CNN: A sudden rise in coronavirus cases is hitting rural states without stay-at-home orders

Just as cases are starting to plateau in some big cities and along the coasts, the coronavirus is catching fire in rural states across the American heartland, where there has been a small but significant spike this week in cases.
...
The bump in coronavirus cases is most pronounced in states without stay at home orders. Oklahoma saw a 53% increase in cases over the past week, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Over same time, cases jumped 60% in Arkansas, 74% in Nebraska, and 82% in Iowa. South Dakota saw a whopping 205% spike.

The remaining states, North Dakota, Utah and Wyoming each saw an increase in cases, but more in line with other places that have stay-at-home orders. And all of those numbers may very well undercount the total cases, given a persistent lack of testing across the US.

April 15
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 6 states
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 13 states
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 25 states
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 4 states
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states

[Grassroots]

F**king insanity.
Days like these really make me want to bring back choppy boi unironically.

The American people are responding though, Trumpfoon's approvals have been freefalling.

[Grassroots]

Florida beaches set to re-open in a few hours, will only be open for 5 morning hours and 4 evening hours every day.

The Ron DeSantis Clown Show continues.

Florida has a decent testing situation so I'm not in arms about this.

[Grassroots]

As usual, the stereotypes are more important than the actual facts. Florida actually has administered more tests in total than any State other than New York. That being said, they are 21st in per-capita tests as a function of their high population. Additionally, they have administered more tests per capita than South Korea. Florida had a bungled up response in many ways, and DeSantis got really lucky with a lot of things, but their testing game isn’t as bad as many States.
I still think opening the beaches was a mistake, but you can’t deny the basic facts.

Warm temperatures saved him.

[Grassroots]

COVID incubation period is 5 days? That's not bad. Originally they were going crazy thinking the incubation period average was like 15 days.

[Grassroots]

Also, it looks like the impact of the voting is going to be minimal to Wisconsin's overall numbers.

[Grassroots]

So it seems that antibodies aren't working in fighting the virus, according to the WHO.

Never believe a word that comes out of Tedros Adhanom's ugly face.

[Grassroots]

Why are case rates rising so much?

[Grassroots]

Why are case rates rising so much?

While NY has somewhat peaked, other states (particularly in the Midwest now) have begun to exponentially grow. IL alone almost registered a growth of 2,000 cases today.

In two weeks, expect another big spike in the Midwest thanks to those 'wonderful' rallies Trumpers are having. Stay at Home orders are only as effective as the population allows them to be.

Quite sure that's backlog, especially since IL hasn't dumped a backlog yet.

[Grassroots]

Why are case rates rising so much?

While NY has somewhat peaked, other states (particularly in the Midwest now) have begun to exponentially grow. IL alone almost registered a growth of 2,000 cases today.

In two weeks, expect another big spike in the Midwest thanks to those 'wonderful' rallies Trumpers are having. Stay at Home orders are only as effective as the population allows them to be.

Quite sure that's backlog, especially since IL hasn't dumped a backlog yet.

Turns out this day's standout numbers in the state is due to the state dumping nursing home data.

[Grassroots]

Italy



Italy 17 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 73,400

Growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

Don't get me wrong, I love your charts, and I don't doubt your knowledge, but why is your chart showing Italy's active case numbers falling but on worldmeters...



...it's showing the active cases peaking out.

[Grassroots]

If Trump is unwilling to do it, why aren’t governor’s seizing control of factories in their states and forcing them to produce covid tests?

That would be awesome. I expect that if the testing situation were to come to a more desperate situation then yeah, Governors would find a way.

[Grassroots]

If Trump is unwilling to do it, why aren’t governor’s seizing control of factories in their states and forcing them to produce covid tests?

Why aren't social deviants rounded up and placed in internment camps?

Because i'm not a governor or the president.

[Grassroots]

Do we think the Chinese did this by releasing it by accident from a lab? My distaste for the Chinese government is exponentially growing.

There is literally no evidence to suggest that. So no.

This thing has been in bat's for thousands of years is the most likely explanation.

But under any normal circumtance, it has (had) no mechanism to go from bat to human.

It finally made the switch through an intermediary animal. (i.e. Pangolin)

It is way too early to suggest otherwise.

Unfortunately, thanks to conspiracy theorists on Facebook, we are about to get 2-3 months of this lab story presented to us. I am already seeing that people are posting things that support their hatred of China rather than presenting any scientific modelling or facts.

You are right, but you can't tell me you don't want to see blood for this.

[Grassroots]

Ron DeSantis is the mayor from Jaws, isn’t he?

Yes, that or The Bay.

[Grassroots]

Don't get me wrong, I love your charts, and I don't doubt your knowledge, but why is your chart showing Italy's active case numbers falling but on worldmeters...

Meclazine is imputing recoveries.

If you are testing positive, within 14 to 21 days, you will either be dead or recovered.

When you are tested, there will be triage. If you are suffering severe respiratory discomfort you'll be hospitalized. You will either be rolled out on a gurney, walk out, or perhaps taken home to recuperate further.

Otherwise you will be told to go home and quarantine isolated even from your family. Keep hydrated watch your temperature, and stay inside. Your family will likely also be tested.

It is unlikely anyone will do followup or officially report a recovery.

Yup, Jim is spot on and phrased it better than i could.

Basically, after testing, you are deemed positive or negative.

Three weeks ago, say Mar 25, sick people presenting in Italy got tested and they had, up until that date, 74,300 positive tests.

What I am saying is that out of that 74,000, they may have had 5-14 days of symptoms before being tested. So after a further 14 days, we are looking at someone who is 19-28 days post initial infection.

I am saying that after 19-28 days, you are either a recovery or a mortality statistic.

So underneath each graph, I list recoveries. For Italy, I have added 73,400 recoveries slowly increasing across the data.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

The Active Cases on my plot and the Daily Death Rate on their graph both peaked on March 28-30.

If you look at the World-o-metres graph, it will never peak, because of low levels of reporting recoveries. All of a sudden, Italy will report 100,000 recoveries on one day.

Wait and watch.

Something I've noticed is that raw death rates (total deaths/total cases) are almost universally creeping up. It doesn't matter if it is Germany, Italy, USA, or Australia.

I can think of two possibilities:

(1) It is becoming more lethal, which might indicate your recovery estimates are too low;

(2) asymptomatic or mild cases are not being tested, therefore those actually tested have more severe symptoms when tested. If this is true, you are missing "cases" and "recoveries". If someone does not know they are ill, can they really be said to have recovered?

I'm guessing that (2) is true. It is consistent with some preliminary testing for antigens.

I think it's just that there's a week or two delay in the peak of cases and the peak of deaths. I guess 2 might also be true.

[Grassroots]

https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1251272475230580737

I'm plenty disappointed with Trump's performance with the crisis, but the fact that NowThis is using "Trump" instead of "government" is all you need to know.

[Grassroots]

In sort of a spillover from America, 500 people assembled today in the center Berlin to protest the still ongoing lockdown in Germany. A few of the protestors reportedly wore "Trump 2020" shirts, others identified themselves to journalists as QAnon believers or opponents of "vaccination terrorism".









Article (in German): https://www.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/kritik-an-corona-massnahmen-das-steckt-hinter-der-querfrontdemonstration-in-berlin/25752958.html#

Ignorance is international.

[Grassroots]

‘Scientific breakdown’ at CDC lab led to coronavirus testing delays, report says

https://nypost.com/2020/04/18/contamination-at-cdc-lab-led-to-coronavirus-testing-delays-report-says/


I think now that testing is in the spotlight the testing situation will improve.

[Grassroots]

How are today's numbers?

[Grassroots]

I believe the massive alarmist-driven desperation for more tests is going to result in us eventually producing a more than adequate amount of tests, similar to the original hysteria paving way to us flattening the curve faster than anticipated.

Fear is underrated. In fact, fear is necessary.

[Grassroots]

April 18
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 3 states (-3)
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 13 states (-)
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 26 states (+1)
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 6 states (+2)
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states (-)

[Grassroots]

April 18
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 3 states (-3)
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 13 states (-)
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 26 states (+1)
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 6 states (+2)
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states (-)

What time interval are you using? What are the quantitative measurements you are using?

New cases per day is the metric in use, and the time intervals are across the past 5-7 days.

[Grassroots]

April 18
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 3 states (-3)
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 13 states (-)
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 26 states (+1)
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 6 states (+2)
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states (-)

What time interval are you using? What are the quantitative measurements you are using?

New cases per day is the metric in use, and the time intervals are across the past 5-7 days.

5 days or 7 days?

What I meant was "Cases strongly decreasing" is a qualitative description. What percentage does that correspond to?

It's not based on a percentage, it's based simply on what I see in the charts. If I see it decreasing at a steep enough curve, I consider it a strong decline. If it's an Italy esque downslope, I consider it a light decrease.

[Grassroots]

I am not an expert here obviously but people on this board have opinions all the time on issues they are not experts on.

I say mid to late June for the below reasons:

1) Keeping up isolated and social distanced for two more months should really hinder the virus from spreading and the curve would be essentially flat.

2) It gives business more time to create procedures for operating during this pandemic. It could be as simple as airlines taking temperatures prior to board and not using middle seats except for families.

3) The unemployment stimulus boosts go until July 31st. Ending the lock downs sometime in June gives a 4 to 6 week adjustment period.

4) If we are really locked up and unemployed well into the fall and next year we will end up with mass foreclosures, evictions, people living on 300 a week from unemployment, depression, suicides, obesity, and various other medical calamities that will be far worse than the virus itself.

5) And let's be honest the coronavirus will be around for a while. Some spread of it will create more immunity and we will have to get used to wearing masks and gloves in public.

The needs of many override the needs of a few. Right now the economic cost is absolutely worth it but that opinion has a shelf life of only two more months.

Ending lockdowns on May 1st would be a horrible idea and it would absolutely lead to a massive depression. We just need more time.

Opening up the economy with restrictions can happen sooner than June. Mid-late May would be safest but parts of the country could open up earlier provided there is enough testing to catch outbreaks, and enough PPE for the additional employees that would be exposed to the virus. That is the biggest roadblock right now.

Only some states should open in may, I'm thinking of Washington, Vermont, Idaho, Montana, Louisiana, and Hawaii. The rest should wait until June 1st.