2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[King Lear]

It's clear the Democrats have a massive problem. Yougov went from D+6 to D+4 this week even as Trump's approval went down. Disastrous month.

If this is true, it’s going to be worse then I thought, by the way can you post the yougov poll?

[King Lear]

Quinnipiac:
Democrats 51
Republicans 38

I don't see how the Dems make gains with numbers like this.

It is quite worrying that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. 2016 and 2014) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Republican. This means that to be safe you really should cut the Democratic lead in half in most of these polls with high undecideds.

[King Lear]

Quinnipiac:
Democrats 51
Republicans 38

I don't see how the Dems make gains with numbers like this.

It is quite worrying that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. 2016 and 2014) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Republican. This means that to be safe you really should cut the Democratic lead in half in most of these polls with high undecideds.

It is quite worrying for Republicans that their are so many undecideds in these polls, this poll has 11% undecideds, and if past elections (ie. Virginia and Alabama) are any guide, we know undecideds tend to break Democratic. This means that to be safe you really should double the Democratic lead in most of these polls with high undecideds.

Why are you picking a fight with me? don't you realize I'm one of the only people that stick up for you here.

[King Lear]

Rasmussen is doing some generic ballot polls now.

1/28, 2018 Generic Ballot

Democrats: 45
Republicans: 37

D+8

These numbers are a little better for Democrats then I would expect from Rasmussen, considering their very accurate Likely voter model (which usually screens out Low-turnout Democratic voters). However, I don’t think a 45-37 lead is that impressive for Democrats considering theirs 18% undecided, and if those break Republican, then Democrats would be in big trouble.

[King Lear]

Perhaps it'd be better if we just all logged off and came back in November because this sucks.

Yep. That's what I'm going to do. I'll be back in late February for the Pennsylvania special election. These polls give me so much anxiety because I genuinely think that our country will crumble if Republicans still hold power in 2019. I know all of you think that I'm a secret Republican or that King Lear is my sock or that I post on RRH, but no. I'm a Democrat who believes that the Republicans and Trump will win over voters this year.

Anyways, bye. I'll hope for some good polls in the mean time.

Feel free to celebrate

Please don’t leave, your one of the few voices of reason on this forum, without you here it’s just going to be me trying to convince my fellow Democrats not to be overwhelmed with hubris again.

[King Lear]

PPP polled 14 House districts.
Don't have time to write more details so feel free to do so.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/2c7561_1536971fc62f48d080ed80a77ed8708c.pdf

These are pretty meh to be honest. Super close races for all.

CA-25: Generic D leads Knight (R, i) 44-42 (D+2)
CA-39: Generic D leads Generic R 45-43 (D+2)
CA-49: Generic D leads Generic R 50-41 (D+9)
FL-27: Generic D leads Generic R 54-39 (D+15)
IA-1: Finkenauer (D) leads Blum (R, i) 43-42 (D+1)
KS-2: Davis (D) leads Generic R 44-42 (D+2)
KY-6: Generic D leads Barr (R, i) 44-43 (D+1)
ME-2: Generic D leads Poliquin (R, i) 45-44 (D+1)
MI-11: Generic D leads Generic R 45-42 (D+3)
MN-3: Dean Phillips (D) leads Paulsen (R, i) 46-43 (D+3)
NJ-11: Mikie Sherill (D) losing to Generic R 40-42 (R+2)
NY-19: Generic D tied with Faso (R, i) 42-42 (tied)
TX-23: Generic D losing to Hurd (R, i) 43-44 (R+1)
WA-8: Generic D leads Dino Rossi (R) 44-43 (D+1)

To be honest, this polling indicates that Democrats only have a relatively small (3 or 4 point) generic ballot lead, because the only seats where Democrats are leading by a statistically significant margin are CA-49 and FL-27, while the rest of the seats are basically coin flips. This dose not corealate with the 7 point lead in the RCP average, or let alone the 15 point lead in Quinnapack.

[King Lear]

I don't mean to contribute/encourage the paranoia, but a CA-49 poll


EM3 Research (for Flip the 49th)
Feb 12-15 (750 voters, +/- 4.9% MoE)


Generic Democrat: 48%
Generic Republican: 41%
Don't Know: 11%


(After receiving positive candidate information)
Doug Applegate (D):   19%
Rocky Chavez (R):   17%
Diane Harkey (R):   17%
Mike Levin (D):   16%
Kristin Gaspar (R):   9%
Sara Jacobs (D):   7%
Paul Kerr (D):   3%
Christina Prejean (D):   1%
Other/Don’t Know:   10%

(After receiving negative candidate information)
Rocky Chavez (R):   18%
Diane Harkey (R):   18%
Doug Applegate (D):   17%
Mike Levin (D):   13%
Kristin Gaspar (R):   8%
Sara Jacobs (D):   8%
Paul Kerr (D):   2%
Christina Prejean (D):   1%
Other/Don’t Know:   17%

Every Democrat but Applegate needs to drop out, Though my gut tells me that a Democrat (Applegate) will make the runoff (this poll did not list 3 of the Republicans running while it listed all the Democrats running), Democrats need to eliminate the possibility of a R vs. R runoff by winnowing the field down to just Applegate (he’s the strongest Democrat running), because if they can’t flip this seat then their going to be kissing the House goodbye.

[King Lear]

CA-25: ALG for Caforio (D)

Knight (GOP): 43
Caforio (DEM): 19
Hil (DEM): 10
Phoenix (DEM): 7
Other: 5
Undecided: 7

I really hope Bryan Caforio makes the runoff, because he’s by far the best candidate due to the fact he nearly won in 2016.

[King Lear]

My current outlook is D+30 in the House.

[King Lear]

Democrats are on track for a massive win this year, I’m currently projecting a net gain of D+30 in the House and D+2 in the Senate.

[King Lear]

In other news, the Democratic Generic Ballot advantage on 538 is at 7%. That's about the same as it was in the summer of 2018. I think that we're overestimating the effects of a Republican gerrymander. It reminds me a little of 2010. Many pundits missed the fact that Democrats were historically overextended in Republican territory; I think something similar is brewing this cycle.

Democrats are on track for a massive win this year, I’m currently projecting a net gain of D+30 in the House and D+2 in the Senate.

That is a bit optimistic.

Honestly, I don’t think their going to win the House or Senate, but I’m forced to say that, because if I post my real opinions, the moderators will ban me (they already have me on Post Moderation).

[King Lear]

PPP for Mike Levin:

Mike Levin (D): 47
Rocky Chavez (R): 39

Trump approval is 44-55.

http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/2018polling_ca49/?source=e180224_0349-fin-ca49-inf&recurring=24&amount=10&refcode2=51451&t=3

It’s to bad they don’t have more polling of the jungle primary, though, my gut tells me it will be Applegate vs. Chavez. However, just to make sure a Democrat makes it into the runoff, the Democrats should winnow the field down to Applegate and Levin, because those are the only serious candidates.

[King Lear]

If CA-45 (my home district) flips, then the House will flip, unfortunately, my gut tells me Walters will squeak it out. However, I plan on voting for Katie Porter in the Jungle Primary, because, if 2018 really is a “Blue Wave”, she’s the strongest candidate to take down Walters.

[King Lear]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

This poll seems extremely accurate, between this and the Rassmusen poll, it's becoming very obvious that CNN is a total outlier, due to the fact they have a ridiculously large Democratic voter ID advantage and poll all adults instead of Likely voters.

[King Lear]

Amazing article from Culumbia University Sociology Professor Musa al-Garbi
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/07/opinion/texas-primary-results-blue.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fopinon

[King Lear]

CA-39: Change Research; Kim 22, Huff 19

Some of these Democrats need to drop out of this CA-39 race immediately or this district will be R vs. R in November. I’m not as worried about CA-49 because theirs twice as many Republicans running as Democrats and I think Applegate (or Levin) has enough support to make it into the top-two, However, it would be great for Kerr (and possibly Jacobs) to drop out today so Applegate or Levin are assured a spot in the Top-two.

[King Lear]

Fox News Poll 3/25 (Last poll was October 2017)


Democrats - 46 (-4)
Republicans - 41 (+6)

Went from D+15 to D+5.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/03/25/fox-news-poll-gap-narrows-on-2018-vote-preference.html

Devastating news for the Democrats, if this trend continues, they will be wiped out this November.

[King Lear]

It’s really amazing to see the Democratic lead collapse again, this is starting to get very reminiscent of the 2016 election where Hillary would take a big lead and then a couple weeks later Trump would start surging, and it would go back and forth like that until Election Day happened to occur during a week Trump was surging. My gut tells me the Democratic lead will fluctuate between now and November, but when the election happens, it will be when Republicans are on an upswing, thus resulting in them holding the House and gaining several senate seats.

[King Lear]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

This makes a lot of sense considering there’s lots of evidence that the next generation of White people (Generation Z) is going to be significantly more Republican then the Millennials, due to the fact that their the first generation to be totally raised in an age of extremely rapid Racial diversification.

[King Lear]

Full SurveyUSA poll:
Rocky Chavez (R): 16%
Doug Applegate (D): 12%
Mike Levin (D): 9%
Diane Harkey (R): 8%
Paul Kerr (D): 8%
Sara Jacobs (D):7%
Kristin Gaspar (R): 5%
Brian Maryott (R); 5%
Mike Schmitt (R): 3%
Joshua Hancock (L): 1%
David Medway (R): 1%
Jordan Mills (PFP): 1%
Craig Nordal (R): 1%
Josh Schoonover (R): 1%
Robert Pendleton (K9): 0%
Danielle St. John (G): 0%
Undecided: 21%

I really hope Doug Applegate makes the runoff, because he’s the only candidate that can beat Rocky Chavez in the general election. Sara Jacob’s is a total disaster who will have a massive implosion in the general election.

[King Lear]

The reason I support Doug Applegate is because he’s a Economicly Progressive, Non-interventionst, Social Moderate, in the mold of Bernie Sanders (he’s endorsed by Justice Democrats), Plus, he spent 30 years in the Marines in a district most famous for including Camp Pendleton. Compare this to Sara Jacobs who’s an arrogant, millenial, brat, who’s trying to buy a House seat with her Billionare Granddadys fortune, and to make matters worse, all she campaigns on are social issues (primarily #metoo and Transgenderism), and doesn’t say a word about Left-wing economic policies and a Non-interventionist foreign policy.