2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[King Lear]

If CA-45 (my home district) flips, then the House will flip, unfortunately, my gut tells me Walters will squeak it out. However, I plan on voting for Katie Porter in the Jungle Primary, because, if 2018 really is a “Blue Wave”, she’s the strongest candidate to take down Walters.

[Holmes]

Walters is the strongest Clinton incumbent in California fwiw, and while I think she loses her seat in November, the House flips before that happens.

[LimoLiberal]

I made a google spreadsheet where I'm going to be posting House and Senate polls along with context: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lEBtD0DPaliUWSZQclSl_HqTZAO_bRrxjDRZPPrAKgM/edit?usp=sharing

Feel free to view. (John Smith is not my real name).

[LimoLiberal]

Democratic lead on the generic ballot collapses on the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll going from D+8 to D+4. Consistent with Rasmussen showing a Trump and Republican surge.

[junior chįmp]

I'm telling you guys....70+ seats:

https://www.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/968675272055762944

[Bidenworth2020]

If CA-45 (my home district) flips, then the House will flip, unfortunately, my gut tells me Walters will squeak it out. However, I plan on voting for Katie Porter in the Jungle Primary, because, if 2018 really is a “Blue Wave”, she’s the strongest candidate to take down Walters.

it seems as though min is, look at the polling

[Badger]

Democratic lead on the generic ballot collapses on the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll going from D+8 to D+4. Consistent with Rasmussen showing a Trump and Republican surge.

Thanks Richard!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I didn't know Andrew was THAT separated from reality.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Politico/MC shows D+2 (was previously R+1). This means the GOP loses 1000 seats in November.

https://morningconsult.com/2018/02/28/half-of-voters-support-arming-teachers-as-gop-support-for-gun-control-rises/

[Dr. Arch]

Politico/MC shows D+2 (was previously R+1). This means the GOP loses 1000 seats in November.

https://morningconsult.com/2018/02/28/half-of-voters-support-arming-teachers-as-gop-support-for-gun-control-rises/

#Limonalysis

[GeorgiaModerate]

Politico/MC shows D+2 (was previously R+1). This means the GOP loses 1000 seats in November.

https://morningconsult.com/2018/02/28/half-of-voters-support-arming-teachers-as-gop-support-for-gun-control-rises/

#Limonalysis

No no no.  For something like real #Limonalysis...

Republicans currently have a 45-vote margin in the House (238-193 with 4 vacancies).  But a shift from R+1 to D+2 means the Democrats will have twice as big an edge as the Republicans do now, so the result will be a 90-seat D margin!

[Adam Griffin]

Will somebody tell that idiot that "surges" and "collapses" don't happen every single day?

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

[Ebsy]

The online polls, as usual, are junk.

[Doimper]

The online polls, as usual, are junk.

[BudgieForce]

YouGov is better than Morning Consult but neither inspire much confidence.

[Landslide Lyndon]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

The good people in Kentucky, NH and Connecticut must have missed the memo.

[LimoLiberal]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

Most polls showing movement to Republicans now.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

Most polls showing movement to Republicans now.

Even in this poll it shows these same voters supporting an assault weapons ban 55-33 with 37% of Republicans supporting it.

[UncleSam]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

The good people in Kentucky, NH and Connecticut must have missed the memo.

Special elections are about enthusiasm because turnout is so low, but in a midterm turnout is much higher. Saying that special election results have much of anything to do with the generic ballot (particularly when 22% are undecided) is a bit silly.

[Gass3268]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

The good people in Kentucky, NH and Connecticut must have missed the memo.

Special elections are about enthusiasm because turnout is so low, but in a midterm turnout is much higher. Saying that special election results have much of anything to do with the generic ballot (particularly when 22% are undecided) is a bit silly.

Saying that special elections are not related to future midterm results is silly. Other than 1998, there is a direct correlation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

The good people in Kentucky, NH and Connecticut must have missed the memo.

Special elections are about enthusiasm because turnout is so low, but in a midterm turnout is much higher. Saying that special election results have much of anything to do with the generic ballot (particularly when 22% are undecided) is a bit silly.

Saying that special elections are not related to future midterm results is silly. Other than 1998, there is a direct correlation.

I don't think that's what he said.  He said that special election results aren't correlated with the generic ballot, because in special elections turnout/motivation is a driving factor.  I agree with this.

[Bidenworth2020]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

The good people in Kentucky, NH and Connecticut must have missed the memo.

Special elections are about enthusiasm because turnout is so low, but in a midterm turnout is much higher. Saying that special election results have much of anything to do with the generic ballot (particularly when 22% are undecided) is a bit silly.

Saying that special elections are not related to future midterm results is silly. Other than 1998, there is a direct correlation.

I don't think that's what he said.  He said that special election results aren't correlated with the generic ballot, because in special elections turnout/motivation is a driving factor.  I agree with this.

well, turnout and getting sample sizes right is arguable the most crucial part go the generic ballot. Special elections can help show that

[Ebsy]

PPP poll of CA-45 (Walter's seat): http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/2018polling_ca45/


First round:

Walters (GOP): 42
Porter (DEM): 16
Min (DEM): 12
Ford (DEM): 4
Hamandanchy (DEM): 6

Second round:

Walters: 44
Porter: 46

Walters: 44
Min: 45

[King Lear]

YouGov, Feb 25-27, 1290 RV

D 40 (-3)
R 38 (+3)

This poll seems extremely accurate, between this and the Rassmusen poll, it's becoming very obvious that CNN is a total outlier, due to the fact they have a ridiculously large Democratic voter ID advantage and poll all adults instead of Likely voters.