CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/BrentWelder/status/1025908868864528386

Looks like this race is going to be thrown away by dumb primary voters.

A guy from St. Louis, Missouri who only came into the district a few months before his campaign has zero chance in hell of winning a district in Kansas.

sigh, no, he is favored to win because this district is the most D friendly district, trended D hard in both 2012 and 2016, is being impacted by a large blue wave, has the lowest approvals for Trump in the state of KS, and has a rather average, not noticeable incumbent, not to mention the likely close race for governor.
I really doubt that the issue will really play well, as carpetbaggers do have a pretty good shot at winning elections. Usually, it needs something else, like the original state being from the coast, or the guy previously working for big money there, but he just lived in the neighboring state, not really anything there.

He lived on the other side of the state. Also, out of state carpetbaggers can only win if other fundamentals aren’t only in their favour, but hugely so.

Alex Mooney still does like 20 points worse than the top of the ticket as an incumbent in deep red WV-02, and he barely won in 2014. McClintock nearly lost in 2008 in a McCain +10 seat with zero Democratic ancestry.

If Welder is such a great candidate, then why are Republican donors meddling to try to get him as their opponent?

Quite simple, its because hes a socialist, and "pundit knowledge" says that socialists cant win in Red states.

Carpetbagging itself is not a large issue for voters. Many of our current reps and dem candidates are carpetbaggers, and no one, on this site, or on the field, seems to have a problem with it. To illustrate this, ill use Morrisey. He carpetbagged from NJ to be the AG for WV, and won, unseating a long time Dem incumbent, even while Manchin cruised. In this senate race, the problem WV voters have with him is not that hes from NJ, its that he worked and took money from Big Pharma. Manchin has paired the two up to make Morrisey look like a Coastal Elite who doesnt care about WV. Its not the carpetbagging issue that gets voters, its the healthcare one. Using the carpetbagging just amplifies it, not creates it.

And to disprove your examples. The seat of WV-02 is the most partisan D seat in WV. It has the highest ceiling of all three districts. Alex had trouble not because of CBing, but because the seat had many partisan Ds in it. Trump preformed the worst in this seat as well. WV-03, while having the D base, is not partisan, allowing Ojeda and Trump to win, by large margins if we are talking about Trump.

And with the McClintock one, his opponent, Charlie Brown(yes, that is his name), ran in 2006 and had great name rec. He lost 45-55. In that case, it would make sense that without an incumbent and a larger D wave election, Charlie would overpreform. It was not McClintock's weaknesses, but Brown's strengths.

So, to sum up. They want Welder cause hes socialist, carpetbagger is not effective unless using it to pair with a larger, more important issue, and not every election is as it seems.

Y'all will take any progressive and social Democrat and proclaim him a socialist hero if he's endorsed by Bernie. Your own punditry is starting to look seriously biased.

[CookieDamage]

Welp, there goes Michigan...Schuette just got a better shot at winning now thanks to a demotivated base.

I mean she'll probably pull it out, but it's probably gonna look like 2014 in reverse (maybe 2002 being kind) when it should've looked like 2006.

As for Ohio, it appears Balderson is gonna take it. It's a mini Pennsylvania '16 all over again.

Lmao... what...?? #HotTake

[CookieDamage]

If you seriously think Sharice Davids falls into the same category as people like Manchin and Lipinski (or even Connor Lamb) then you're just deluded or intentionally being intellectually dishonest.

Lots of people, especially younger and in my age bracket, seem to think that if there's one progressive in a race, especially a Bernie-endorsed progressive, then every other candidate must be a conservative, neoliberal backed by shady donors.

[CookieDamage]

No, sir. I hope that US is a clever country. An idiots, like those in DSA, usually don't win too much in clever countries)))). Sometimes, somewhere - yes. But - not more.

You know socialism is not going away anytime soon? We've scored wins in the VA State House (Lee Carter), primary wins in the PA State House (Sara Innamorato, Summer Lee), AOC in New York and Rashida Tlaib in Michigan.

So what, the centrists got Ed Case tonight. There's going to be DSA members in congress in January, probably going to be a sizable socialist caucus in Congress by 2020, and plenty of wins for the left on the state legislative level. The Blue Dogs have been disappearing from the halls of Congress with each election cycle, and not a whole lot of them are gonna get elected in November. The "pasokification" we've seen in Europe, the decline of the centre-left, is occurring in America right now. The New Dem strategy crashed and burned in 2016, and we saw the rise of a right-wing populist movement in America. We've also seen the rise of a new left-wing movement in America.

I think Democrats are gonna excel in 2018 without a cohesive ideology or party leader for its voters to get behind, but just wait until those 2020 primaries start. Whoever emerges from that 20-candidate pileup that's bound to occur will be the face of the Democratic Party, and most of the candidates running in downballot races are going to be influenced by the policies that presidential candidate supports. Don't believe me, look at Trump and the Republican Party. GOP voters can't get enough of him, and GOP politicians are standing by him and supporting his policies and cabinet picks without hesitation.

Spoiler alert: that candidate is not gonna be a Joe Manchin or Andrew Cuomo "sensible moderate" type. It's either going to be one of Sanders, Warren, Gillibrand, Harris, Booker or even Brown. Because what kind of Democratic Party where a majority of its members support single-payer healthcare, free college, a $15/hr min. wage or even a federal job guarantee is going to support centrism for the sake of centrism?

Not every candidate AOC endorses will win, just like not every young Democrat hotshot that has the support of the DCCC will win this year. Or that not every Blue Dog will win this year by virtue of their glorious, invalauble C E N T R I S M. Parties and movements have wins and losses, and the DSA is a fledgling movement. But socialists have won primaries and even general elections against Republicans across America, since last year. So I wouldn't say that AOC's win was a fluke in the Bronx. It is a part of a growing progressive socialist movement in America that continues to gain ground with each passing day.

Y'all. Until I see candidates actively supporting an end to capitalism and a beginning of a democratically controlled economy and classless society, I am not calling them socialists. AOC, Kaniela Ing, Bernie, Rashida Tlaib, and the like are much closer to Social Dems then they are to even "moderate" socialists.

Stop conflating the two because it's honestly starting to get embarrassing watching people change their avis to maroon and claim how socialist the Democratic party is becoming. If anything it's becoming a Social Democratic party. Real heavy socialists see the Democrats as anathema to a classless, equal society where capitalism is replaced by something different.

[CookieDamage]

No, sir. I hope that US is a clever country. An idiots, like those in DSA, usually don't win too much in clever countries)))). Sometimes, somewhere - yes. But - not more.

You know socialism is not going away anytime soon? We've scored wins in the VA State House (Lee Carter), primary wins in the PA State House (Sara Innamorato, Summer Lee), AOC in New York and Rashida Tlaib in Michigan.

So what, the centrists got Ed Case tonight. There's going to be DSA members in congress in January, probably going to be a sizable socialist caucus in Congress by 2020, and plenty of wins for the left on the state legislative level. The Blue Dogs have been disappearing from the halls of Congress with each election cycle, and not a whole lot of them are gonna get elected in November. The "pasokification" we've seen in Europe, the decline of the centre-left, is occurring in America right now. The New Dem strategy crashed and burned in 2016, and we saw the rise of a right-wing populist movement in America. We've also seen the rise of a new left-wing movement in America.

I think Democrats are gonna excel in 2018 without a cohesive ideology or party leader for its voters to get behind, but just wait until those 2020 primaries start. Whoever emerges from that 20-candidate pileup that's bound to occur will be the face of the Democratic Party, and most of the candidates running in downballot races are going to be influenced by the policies that presidential candidate supports. Don't believe me, look at Trump and the Republican Party. GOP voters can't get enough of him, and GOP politicians are standing by him and supporting his policies and cabinet picks without hesitation.

Spoiler alert: that candidate is not gonna be a Joe Manchin or Andrew Cuomo "sensible moderate" type. It's either going to be one of Sanders, Warren, Gillibrand, Harris, Booker or even Brown. Because what kind of Democratic Party where a majority of its members support single-payer healthcare, free college, a $15/hr min. wage or even a federal job guarantee is going to support centrism for the sake of centrism?

Not every candidate AOC endorses will win, just like not every young Democrat hotshot that has the support of the DCCC will win this year. Or that not every Blue Dog will win this year by virtue of their glorious, invalauble C E N T R I S M. Parties and movements have wins and losses, and the DSA is a fledgling movement. But socialists have won primaries and even general elections against Republicans across America, since last year. So I wouldn't say that AOC's win was a fluke in the Bronx. It is a part of a growing progressive socialist movement in America that continues to gain ground with each passing day.

Y'all. Until I see candidates actively supporting an end to capitalism and a beginning of a democratically controlled economy and classless society, I am not calling them socialists. AOC, Kaniela Ing, Bernie, Rashida Tlaib, and the like are much closer to Social Dems then they are to even "moderate" socialists.

Stop conflating the two because it's honestly starting to get embarrassing watching people change their avis to maroon and claim how socialist the Democratic party is becoming. If anything it's becoming a Social Democratic party. Real heavy socialists see the Democrats as anathema to a classless, equal society where capitalism is replaced by something different.

Its American Socialism, which is Social Democracy. Thats just how Right the Ovetone window is.

uh... tell that to an actual full on Socialist and see how fast you get told off.