2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (user search)
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  2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 631437 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #75 on: November 05, 2020, 04:38:54 AM »
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 05, 2020, 04:37:48 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 05, 2020, 04:35:19 AM
The number of the PA DOS dashboard and Philly are matching.

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?

120.000 mail ballots remain to be counted in city, with late-arriving maybe as much as 150k.

90% of those will go to Biden.

Biden should erase Trump's PA lead alone with the remaining Philly+Pittsburgh ballots ...

People keep saying that but he still hasn’t erased the lead yet...

Because the counting takes some time ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #76 on: November 05, 2020, 04:44:24 AM »
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 05, 2020, 04:42:38 AM
Quote from: Tarrin Kael on November 05, 2020, 04:39:04 AM
How likely are we to hold Perdue to below 50% at this point?
Is it at all likely Biden wins GA at this point?

Do we know really what is left ?

It seems all mail ballots have been counted in the state.

Maybe some provisional ballots ?

Late arriving ballots such as overseas military ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #77 on: November 05, 2020, 04:48:50 AM »
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 05, 2020, 04:46:28 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 05, 2020, 04:44:24 AM
Quote from: The Trump Virus on November 05, 2020, 04:42:38 AM
Quote from: Tarrin Kael on November 05, 2020, 04:39:04 AM
How likely are we to hold Perdue to below 50% at this point?
Is it at all likely Biden wins GA at this point?

Do we know really what is left ?

It seems all mail ballots have been counted in the state.

Maybe some provisional ballots ?

Late arriving ballots such as overseas military ?


I’m not sure Sad

It just feels like Georgia is slipping.  Arizona keeps slipping.  Nevada is too close.  Pennsylvania may not come through.  I think people celebrated too early.

You are too pessimistic.

It's true that GA is really close and might end up for Trump.

The same with AZ, because there are 400.000-600.000 ballots left, among them many election-day votes which skew Trump.

But NV looks better, it seems mostly mail ballots left there, but I have no clue really (Ralston said so).

And PA is looking pretty good for Biden. He will likely pull slightly ahead of Trump at the end of today.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #78 on: November 05, 2020, 04:57:47 AM »
Quote from: Meclazine on November 05, 2020, 04:55:24 AM
Sportsbet.com.au just paid out my bet on Joe Biden!

#presidentbidenrocks

Sounds a little early to me.

It's only over when Biden pulls ahead in PA (maybe late in the evening today, or tomorrow).

Anyway, I also made some awesome bets on WilliamHill.

If GA ends up Trump and Trump gets 240-268 EV, or GA/Biden and AZ/NV Trump, then I'll cash in 1.000€ on various bets !

I might have to wait a little longer for my money, because I guess they will only pay out the money if the AP has declared all 538 EV or those votes are cast in December ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #79 on: November 05, 2020, 05:00:55 AM »
Quote from: Meclazine on November 05, 2020, 04:55:24 AM
Sportsbet.com.au just paid out my bet on Joe Biden!

#presidentbidenrocks

Or did you bet on winner of the popular vote only, not the Presidency ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #80 on: November 05, 2020, 05:17:05 AM »
Quote from: DaleCooper on November 05, 2020, 05:14:40 AM
Apparently, unless there are some crazy surprises, a conservative estimate would indicate that Biden is on track to end up with a thin but safe lead in Pennsylvania once these 450,000 ballots are counted.

Correct.

A slight unknown is the fact that a certain percentage of mail ballots never get counted as valid, because they lack signatures.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #81 on: November 05, 2020, 05:58:50 AM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on November 05, 2020, 05:57:45 AM

It’s simply not happening.

Trumps final margin might be under 10k but he’s not losing that state for the simple fact there is hardly any vote left to overcome such a margin

Tens of thousands of voters have the possibility until tomorrow to "cure" their rejected ballots.

So maybe it might happen, but Biden could lose AZ in return.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #82 on: November 05, 2020, 06:09:13 AM »
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 05, 2020, 06:02:08 AM
This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

Tomorrow night.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #83 on: November 05, 2020, 06:19:34 AM »
Quote from: Yeahsayyeah on November 05, 2020, 06:18:28 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 05, 2020, 06:09:13 AM
Quote from: BlueSwan on November 05, 2020, 06:02:08 AM
This election is getting on my nerves. I wish Biden could just clinch PA to get this nightmare over with.

Tomorrow night.
Sorry, that I am confused now, as you ar answering another European poster. Central European or American night?

I would assume that by tomorrow night PA time (= Saturday morning our time), Biden will have pulled ahead of Trump.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #84 on: November 05, 2020, 06:28:55 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on November 05, 2020, 06:27:10 AM
Quote from: chickentitilater on November 05, 2020, 02:35:20 AM
According to the Philadelphia county website, turnout was 51% and they’ve received a total of 233583
Mail votes with 97% counted.

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?&cat=PREC

There 400K+ mail votes requested in PA, so that means there are many more left. 350K were returned by the end of Michael McDonald's updating

97% counted refers only to Philly's election-day precincts, not the mail ballots.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #85 on: November 05, 2020, 06:36:07 AM »
Guys, stop.

There's too much misinformation in this thread right now.

There are 450.000 mail ballots left in PA right now, maybe more because they can still arrive until tomorrow.

Biden keeps winning 75%+ of them.

Biden nets at least 230.000 more votes out of them, maybe as much as 250.000 with the late arriving.

Trump's lead is 150.000 right now.

Biden wins by 80.000 in the end tomorrow, maybe even by 100.000 with the late arriving.

Biden wins the state by 1.1% to 1.5%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #86 on: November 05, 2020, 08:50:50 AM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on November 05, 2020, 08:47:01 AM
Oh, I see why there was some panic. Apparently people thought there were over 700,000 votes left in PA when its actually only 488,000 votes.

Guys, it doesn’t matter if there were 700k left to count or 488k (the correct number as of this morning).

The trajectory was always the same:

Biden was expected to end with +90k statewide in both cases, the difference is that 212k more votes have been counted in between but the 700k number left wasn’t updated on the DOS Dashboard ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #87 on: November 05, 2020, 09:02:02 AM »
Quote from: Unbeatable Titan Gary Peters on November 05, 2020, 08:56:21 AM
So Dave Wasserman is saying he doesn’t believe there are only 120k uncounted ballots in Philadelphia. That would be a decrease in turnout there

Isn’t Philly a city that is shrinking in population ?

If the population of a city is shrinking (especially because of American citizens moving out), raw turnout could decrease, while other parts of the country see an increase.

Also, ballots are being received in PA today and tomorrow.

There could be slightly more than 120.000 left then.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #88 on: November 05, 2020, 09:07:35 AM »
Quote from: JerryArkansas on November 05, 2020, 09:04:30 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 05, 2020, 09:02:02 AM
Quote from: Unbeatable Titan Gary Peters on November 05, 2020, 08:56:21 AM
So Dave Wasserman is saying he doesn’t believe there are only 120k uncounted ballots in Philadelphia. That would be a decrease in turnout there

Isn’t Philly a city that is shrinking in population ?

If the population of a city is shrinking (especially because of American citizens moving out), raw turnout could decrease, while other parts of the country see an increase.

Also, ballots are being received in PA today and tomorrow.

There could be slightly more than 120.000 left then.
No it's slightly growing, and if Wayne, a county with a decreasing population can have more votes than 2016 Philly can too.

But is Philly slightly growing in population because of American citizens, or because of foreigners moving in ?

There could be for example 20.000 foreigners moving in each year to Philly, and 15.000 Americans out ...

What are the voter registration #s in the city in Nov. 16 and now ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #89 on: November 05, 2020, 09:20:28 AM »
I understand why politically non-educated people are confused.

You cannot have a results reporting page like GA, which says 100% of precincts are in, and then several reports that have different estimates of additional ballots left.

That’s why it would be better not to release ANY vote dump updates at all, just a final state result in every election !
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #90 on: November 05, 2020, 09:36:17 AM »
Quote from: Astatine on November 05, 2020, 09:33:14 AM
When will Alaska actually be counted (one week I read somewhere?) and what is to expect (not Biden/Gross winning, but how close could it be?)

I think they only start counting their mail ballots when the last ones have arrived from overseas.

I guess we’ll have complete AK results in one week.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #91 on: November 05, 2020, 09:52:13 AM »
I think a defeated President like Trump should immediately lose access to the nuclear codes in such a situation.

He could run amok if GA or PA hand Biden the presidency soon ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #92 on: November 05, 2020, 10:02:36 AM »
So, did Trump ask the Supreme Court to stop the counts and they said No ?

Will the mentally ill, defeated POTUS concede ?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #93 on: November 05, 2020, 10:05:10 AM »
Quote from: Kalimantan on November 05, 2020, 10:02:12 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 05, 2020, 09:52:13 AM
I think a defeated President like Trump should immediately lose access to the nuclear codes in such a situation.

He could run amok if GA or PA hand Biden the presidency soon ...

This is basically the biggest difference between UK and US elections. Our government is dissolved before the election and the winning party take over as soon as the result is known, usually the very next morning. Its clean and simple and prevents these lane stuck shenanigans. I'm sure it's the same in austria

Our government gets dissolved ahead of an election and gets asked by the President to solve as caretaker until after the election.

But we have no nukes, so ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #94 on: November 05, 2020, 10:07:04 AM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on November 05, 2020, 10:04:46 AM


Reminds me of Hitlers final hours in his bunker ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #95 on: November 05, 2020, 10:10:45 AM »
PA should just continue counting, like a democracy does, in case some Trump-friendly judge stops the count.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #96 on: November 05, 2020, 10:14:38 AM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on November 05, 2020, 10:12:16 AM


Americans, can you feel the dictatorship ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #97 on: November 05, 2020, 11:51:51 AM »
Philadelphia is able to count ca. 10.000 ballots per hour.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #98 on: November 05, 2020, 11:56:32 AM »
Hoping for Biden to lose either GA or AZ ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #99 on: November 05, 2020, 11:58:59 AM »

Because I have a 50€ bet on William Hill, in which I would win 450€ if Trump ends somewhere between 240 and 268 EV.

If he wins both states, Trump drops below 240 EV ...
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