2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Tender Branson]

Why did Deborah Jackson receive 7% in the GA-Sen. special ?

No pollster had her even at 1% ...

MTE, WTF is that

MTE ?

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1324025795312906243?s=21

How many overseas military ballots can we expect to be counted in WI ?

[Tender Branson]

Prof. McDonald has a 1st estimate of turnout.

Highest in 120 years, at 67% of the VEP (voting-eligible population), or ca. 160 million:



https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1323897443398942726

Of course, it will take 6 weeks until every state has certified their total ballots cast and until January/February until the Census Bureau releases the new 2020 census state counts, which can then be used to re-calculate turnout based on the newest population numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Jesus, hopefully the militia types stay home and not storm and disrupt vote counting:

https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status/1324028130496040960

[Tender Branson]

Here's what's left in PA:



9.2% (=841) of the election-day precincts are also uncounted.

[Tender Branson]

Can Biden even still win PA at this point?  How possible really is that right now?

Yes, more than 1.2 million ballots are left.

Those skew 75-24 Biden.

Trump's lead is 480.000 right now, but Biden will net more than 600.000 out of the remaining ballots.

Biden will finish ca. 100.000 ahead of Trump.

[Tender Branson]

Ok I woke up.
What happened?

Biden will be President.

[Tender Branson]

Philly is actually counting mail ballots pretty fast compared to other counties ...

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully Biden does not win GA.

I'd lose 500€ on a betting platform.

If Biden loses GA, but wins the Presidency with 270-298 EV, I'd cash in 1000€ (or 1200$) !

[Tender Branson]

Current swing map:

Meaningless though.

There's a brutal amount of ballots left in most states.

[Tender Branson]

PA is not a done deal yet.

I have just looked at the figures.

1.067 million postal ballots are left to count (they broke 78-21 Biden so far).

Biden gains a net 608.000 votes from those.

Trump is currently ahead by 440.000

So far, so good.

Biden wins by 168.000 in the end.

But 8% of PAs 8000+ Election Day precincts are also not counted yet.

Those account for an additional 338.000 votes.

Election Day votes went 66-33 Trump so far.

Trump nets 111.000 votes from those.

Biden still comes out 57.000 ahead, but there’s room for bigger movement.

[Tender Branson]

PA is not a done deal yet.

I have just looked at the figures.

1.067 million postal ballots are left to count (they broke 78-21 Biden so far).

Biden gains a net 608.000 votes from those.

Trump is currently ahead by 440.000

So far, so good.

Biden wins by 168.000 in the end.

But 8% of PAs 8000+ Election Day precincts are also not counted yet.

Those account for an additional 338.000 votes.

Election Day votes went 66-33 Trump so far.

Trump nets 111.000 votes from those.

Biden still comes out 57.000 ahead, but there’s room for bigger movement.

Trump is ahead by less than 400K right now, not 440K.

Yes, but there are also less than 1 million postal ballots left now.

One goes hand in hand with the other.

[Tender Branson]

PA is not a done deal yet.

I have just looked at the figures.

1.067 million postal ballots are left to count (they broke 78-21 Biden so far).

Biden gains a net 608.000 votes from those.

Trump is currently ahead by 440.000

So far, so good.

Biden wins by 168.000 in the end.

But 8% of PAs 8000+ Election Day precincts are also not counted yet.

Those account for an additional 338.000 votes.

Election Day votes went 66-33 Trump so far.

Trump nets 111.000 votes from those.

Biden still comes out 57.000 ahead, but there’s room for bigger movement.

Trump is ahead by less than 400K right now, not 440K.

Yes, but there are also less than 1 million postal ballots left now.

One goes hand in hand with the other.

There are over 1.3M postal ballots left. Can you check your facts before posting? That's 2/2 misstatements. We really don't need this.

There are less than 1 million postal ballots left.

Check the PA DOS dashboard.

It is not updated constantly. You need to remove the counted postal ballots from the „total issued“ number in the dashboard to get the actual number of ballots left !

[Tender Branson]

So.. I'll ask again.

Do we actually know anything about when PA results are coming? They literally have barely budged all day. Given this entire race is.. hinging on it?

They are coming in right now ?

[Tender Branson]

The supposedly remaining 300.000 Election Day vote in PA is mostly coming from Erie County and surroundings.

Erie County has 0% Election Day precincts reporting in the PA DOS dashboard.

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

Now the strange part:

The returns page shows 85.000+ Election Day ballots counted in Erie already.

https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/CountyResults?countyName=Erie&ElectionID=undefined&ElectionType=G&IsActive=undefined

If there is no Election Day vote left, this would be enormously good news for Biden.

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1324086031591886850?s=19

You have won PA just like Lukashenko has „won“ Belarus ...

[Tender Branson]

Current turnout:

143 million (+4 from 2016)

What could be left ?

Maybe 5-10 million ?

For 150 in total ?

I think the 160 will definitely not be reached, there will only be a slight increase in turnout after all. Not the big one, as predicted.

[Tender Branson]

If GA flips, hopefully Trump wins AZ after all with the remaining 500k ballots there.

I want my 1000€ from the betting organization (Trump needs to end up with 240-268 votes).

[Tender Branson]

So apparently the real number of ballots left to count in PA is around 450K.

That’s correct.

The state dashboard says 750k left, but this is outdated.

Because the state dashboard also says just 1.8 million mail ballots have been counted, but the results page already shows 2.12 million counted.

[Tender Branson]

Biden expected to finish 50k-100k ahead in PA when all is counted.

There are still more ballots coming in until Friday, so +80.000 or even +100.000 is still the most likely outcome.

[Tender Branson]

Wait, so does this lower figure make PA look better or worse for Biden?

No change really.

If Biden keeps winning the remaining 450k ballots by a 75-24 margin, he can easily make up the current deficit.

[Tender Branson]

CNN still has outdated PA numbers, Trump's margin has dwindled to 153k.

With how many outstanding votes?

Ca. 450.000

[Tender Branson]

CNN still has outdated PA numbers, Trump's margin has dwindled to 153k.

With how many outstanding votes?

Ca. 450.000

Do we think that most of them are from Philadelphia?

311,000 out of Pittsburgh. Biden is 131,000 votes behind Hillary's 2016 total.

The dashboard says that Allegheny had a total of

407.249 mail ballots issued
348.767 returned so far
302.868 already counted
 45.899 still to be counted

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

Don't know how accurate that is, because the dashboard also says that more than 700.000 mail ballots remain to be counted in PA, when in fact it's no more than 450.000 in reality.

[Tender Branson]

CNN still has outdated PA numbers, Trump's margin has dwindled to 153k.

With how many outstanding votes?

Ca. 450.000

Do we think that most of them are from Philadelphia?

311,000 out of Pittsburgh. Biden is 131,000 votes behind Hillary's 2016 total.

The dashboard says that Allegheny had a total of

407.249 mail ballots issued
348.767 returned so far
302.868 already counted
 45.899 still to be counted

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

Don't know how accurate that is, because the dashboard also says that more than 700.000 mail ballots remain to be counted in PA, when in fact it's no more than 450.000 in reality.

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/PA/Allegheny/106267/web.264614/#/detail/0004

Here they say 312065 absentees counted which equates to about 36k left in the county.

They are still receiving ballots by mail until FRI though, so the number of received is also going up all the time.

Maybe 40-50k left in reality in Pittsburgh.

[Tender Branson]

The numbers on the PA DOS dashboard and Philly are matching.

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/VoterTurnoutDetails.aspx?

120.000 mail ballots remain to be counted in city, with late-arriving maybe as much as 150k.

90% of those will go to Biden.

Biden should erase Trump's PA lead alone with the remaining Philly+Pittsburgh ballots ...