Mini Tuesday results thread

[Tender Branson]

Will be interesting to see if there’s any effect on turnout from the recent virus hysteria, especially in 99% election-day-only states such as MO.

[Tender Branson]

Polls are closing at 3am in MI and MO ?

So, no need to get up before 5 or 6am this time I guess.

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1237439759577944064

This is because the state legislature wouldn't allow election officals start the processing those ballots before polls close.

Brilliant.

Yes.

This is very similar to Austria, where postal ballots are only opened and counted the Monday after Election Sunday.

Nobody really wants to count votes until midnight on a Sunday, so better count them on Monday.

It’s also better for the media: voting ends at 5pm, so all Election Day votes are counted by 7 or 8pm and are ready for primetime discussion shows.

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1237439759577944064

This is because the state legislature wouldn't allow election officals start the processing those ballots before polls close.

Brilliant.

Yes.

This is very similar to Austria, where postal ballots are only opened and counted the Monday after Election Sunday.

Nobody really wants to count votes until midnight on a Sunday, so better count them on Monday.

It’s also better for the media: voting ends at 5pm, so all Election Day votes are counted by 7 or 8pm and are ready for primetime discussion shows.

That won't work in Michigan where close to 1 million people voted early.

Austria had 1.25 million postal votes last year. The counting was very smooth.

But I understand that MI has these numbers for the first time (no-excuse postal voting possible now), so it might be different.

It would still be better to count the Election Day votes today and the postal/early votes tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

Anything closer than 60-35 Biden in MI would really surprise me ...

It’s fairly obvious that a lot of Warren supporters have now gone to Biden ... not Sanders.

Bernie might do a bit better though if Election Day turnout is low today, relative to the postal voting (500.000 or so).

It makes a difference if total turnout is 1 million or 2 million, of which either half or just a quarter are postal/early votes ...

[Tender Branson]

We only have paper voting here, so:

Are they disinfecting the touchscreens in the US today all the time someone has voted ?

[Tender Branson]

Just got up ...

Those results are not as bad as I thought for Bernie, but there’s a lot to be counted.

Next week will be even more brutal.

[Tender Branson]

Did anybody have a sweep (or near sweep) on his/her radar?

I called a sweep for my official prediction.

This, except for DA.

[Tender Branson]

What is a firehouse primary?

A primary conducted by a state party, with fewer precincts than normal.

[Tender Branson]

Did anyone notice that the Dems got a combined 700.000 votes in MO, while only 300.000 were cast in the R primary ?

It was the opposite in 2016 and 2008.

[Tender Branson]

1.4 million votes cast in MI for the Ds so far, 0.6 million for the Rs.

It was 1.2 to 1.3 in 2016.

[Tender Branson]

Finally got an update from ND. Sanders is still leading 44-32 with 32% in.

Wouldn't be surprised if he does end up winning there. Another frivolous caucus that needs to go.

ND has no caucus.

[Tender Branson]

Finally got an update from ND. Sanders is still leading 44-32 with 32% in.

Wouldn't be surprised if he does end up winning there. Another frivolous caucus that needs to go.

ND has no caucus.

I'm pretty sure it is.

No.

It is only called „caucus“ for some reason.

The actual vote process is a primary, where you cast your vote and leave.

In a caucus you have to remain at the place for 2 hours until the groups get counted.

https://demnpl.com/primary/

[Tender Branson]

What are the chances that the 20% reporting in ND are just the postal votes ?

The % of „others“ is very high ...

[Tender Branson]

Just woke up and after seeing the results why Sanders hasn’t dropped out is beyond me.

The results so far are not „that“ bad for Bernie.

I expected far worse.

But next week will do him in.

[Tender Branson]

Finally got an update from ND. Sanders is still leading 44-32 with 32% in.

Wouldn't be surprised if he does end up winning there. Another frivolous caucus that needs to go.

ND has no caucus.

I'm pretty sure it is.

No.

It is only called „caucus“ for some reason.

The actual vote process is a primary, where you cast your vote and leave.

In a caucus you have to remain at the place for 2 hours until the groups get counted.

https://demnpl.com/primary/

Since they call it both a primary and a caucus and it's not really either, I think it's fine to call it either.

The voting process is clearly a primary + there was postal voting.

Don’t know why they keep calling it a „caucus“ when it’s clearly not ...

[Tender Branson]

Are the county results from ND we are getting organized by voting site or by where the voters are registered?

ND doesn’t have voter registration and there is one vote center in each county.

[Tender Branson]

Primary is run by the state. You fill out a ballot anonymously and hand it to an election worker. For this you sign a pledge of support for a candidate and hand it to a party official. It's not the same.

Wrong:

You cast your vote anonymously in ND (like in a primary) and also sign a Pledge of Support for the Democratic Party.

That’s something completely different to what you write ...

[Tender Branson]

so we had Super Tuesday and Mini Tuesday, what is next week? Medium Tuesday? Super-ish Tuesday? Diet Super Tuesday?

St. Patrick Tuesday

[Tender Branson]

Biden has won WA.

He’s ahead by 30.000 votes and there are just 120.000 left in the D race.

Bernie would need to win the remaining votes by a 25% margin to make up the gap ...

[Tender Branson]

There are ca. 80.000 Democratic ballots left to count in WA.

Biden is currently ahead by a 30.000 margin, which means Sanders would win the remaining ballots by a 35-40% margin over Biden ...

In other words: it is mathematically impossible.