New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Tender Branson]

50% (!) of NH primary voters are still undecided.

That’s huge.

Those undecided and the big factor of Independents being able to vote could result in a mega landslide on Tuesday (one way or the other).

[Tender Branson]

This is funny:

‘Back to the Future’ with Pete Buttigieg.

KEENE — Pete Buttigieg had a celebrity introducer as he kicked off his first campaign rally of the weekend here: Michael J. Fox.

The “Back to the Future” star spoke about last night’s debate as he began his remarks, pointing to Mr. Buttigieg’s calm demeanor.

“I love all the Democratic nominees, but they’re all yelling at me,” he said, as the crowd chuckled. Mr. Buttigieg, he said, “was quiet and just making his point.”

Mr. Fox, who said he first noticed Mr. Buttigieg during an appearance on a morning show, ticked off his résumé, with a quick poke at President Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/new-hampshire-primary-02-08#back-to-the-future-with-pete-buttigieg



Biff = Trump
Marty = Pete

[Tender Branson]

Buttigieg Weaponizes Biden’s Attack Ad Against Him

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire—Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of a Midwestern city with just over 100,000 residents, wants voters gathered here in Manchester, a city with a population of approximately the same size, to know that he has something in common with them.

He also wants them to know that Joe Biden does not.

The former South Bend mayor started his speech at the McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner, the state Democratic Party’s biggest annual fundraiser, on Saturday night with a thinly veiled shot at former Vice President Joe Biden, who all but conceded the prior night that he’s unlikely to win the primary on Feb. 11.

“I know some are asking, what business does the South Bend mayor have seeking the highest office in the land,” Buttigieg started, addressing Biden without mentioning him by name. “You don’t have an office in Washington,  you don’t have decades of experience in the establishment, the city you are the mayor of isn’t even the biggest city in the country.”

“It is more like Manchester, New Hampshire,” he said, to applause.

Buttigieg’s comments come as Biden escalated attacks on the 38-year old former mayor just one day after they sparred during the eighth Democratic debate. The former VP’s campaign, in desperate need of a primary boost after coming in fourth place in the Iowa caucuses, released a new digital ad appearing to minimize his opponent’s experience as a local official in Indiana.

The spot, titled, “Pete's Record,” contrasts Biden and Buttigieg’s records—with a spotlight on Biden’s time negotiating significant pieces of legislation under former President Barack Obama compared to the relatively smaller accomplishments of a small city in Indiana.  

Buttigieg, who has enjoyed a significant post-Iowa polling boost, successfully twisted the ad spot to his advantage, winning roaring applause.

“To which I say, that is very much the point, because Americans in small, rural towns and industrial communities and yes, in our biggest cities, are tired of being reduced to a punchline by Washington politicians, and ready for someone to take the voice to the American capital. And that is how we are going to defeat Donald Trump,” Buttigieg said.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/bidens-attack-ad-on-mayor-pete-backfires-in-manchester

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1226370137311367168

5 people are eligible to vote there this year.

(They will re-open their big hotel in 2024, so there could be more people voting then.)

My guess:

2 Bernie
1 Pete
1 Amy
1 Warren

0 Trump

[Tender Branson]

The party reg stats are 4 IND and 1 REP so Trump is guaranteed a vote.

Sanders 3
Klobuchar 1

Trump 1

Oh, ok.

But Republicans (like Indys) can also vote in the Dem. primary I guess.

Typically, the exit polls show something like 70% D composition in a NH Dem. primary, 25% Indys and 5% Rs.

[Tender Branson]

The line of people outside a Nashua high school was about 3 miles long today for the Pete event:

https://twitter.com/justingomezabc/status/1226549410466877443

This is keeping me optimistic for Tuesday.

[Tender Branson]

When do you think will the Networks project a Winner in New Hampshire tomorrow? In 2016 Trump & Sanders were projected Winners at the time of Poll Closing 8pm ET!

I think that the exit polls will be around Bernie +3 to +6, which means that networks will wait until 80% or so is counted.

(I’m hoping that Pete outperforms the Exit Poll and creates a tie with the actual votes being counted at around 26% both.)

Vote counting should take 3-4 hours.

[Tender Branson]

If Sanders loses NH to Pete tomorrow, I think he is in hot water. This is a neighboring state that he won by a large margin in 2016. He already received fewer votes in Iowa than he did in 2016.

Sanders still would have the better path forward, because Pete has Biden, Klobuchar and soon even Bloomberg as competition on the moderate side.

Bernie only has a fading Warren (unless she does well tomorrow).

[Tender Branson]

So, based on the one registered Republican in the town, my new prediction:

1 Trump

2 Pete
1 Bernie
1 Amy

[Tender Branson]

Harts Location and Millsfield are also voting at midnight.

Do you have registration statistics for those as well ?

[Tender Branson]

I thought I’ll post a final Michael Bennet tweet before he’s out on Wednesday ...

https://twitter.com/michaelbennet/status/1226922483732758530

[Tender Branson]

Midnight voting start in ca. 3 minutes !

3 towns with ca. 40 people, 20 people and 5 people.

[Tender Branson]

Merged per request.

Thx.

Is CNN showing the midnight voting now ?

[Tender Branson]

This is hilarious.

[Tender Branson]

Any word on Millsfield and Hart's Location ?

[Tender Branson]

Good start for Amy Klobuchar with ca. 30 votes cast on the DEM side.

Out of an expected 300.000 votes.

[Tender Branson]

GOP results from the 3 small towns:

31 Trump
 5 Welp
 1 Bloomberg

[Tender Branson]

Small towns always have very strange results.

Not sure if there's a trend for Amy Klobuchar based on 1/10000th of the expected DEM vote ...

I expect Pete to do really well in the Southern Boston suburbs.

[Tender Branson]

I will get up at ~2am tomorrow to watch the exit poll and results.

4 hours of election coverage for me.

[Tender Branson]

My opinion of today and the next weeks:

Pete definitely needs to win today.

... and keep his momentum the next days and weeks.

Preferably, Biden drops to below 10% today and close to 5% and gets defeated by Steyer or Bernie or Pete in SC (with the backing of White people).

And drops out.

Preferably, Klobuchar also underperforms today (10%) and drops out.

In which case Pete only has Bloomberg to face on Super Tuesday.

He could present himself as the bridge to voters between a billionaire run amok, who's trying to buy the nomination with 500 Mio. $ - and a leftist like Bernie, who could not bring his agenda through a moderate Congress.

[Tender Branson]

Even if he doesn't win today, Pete has run a great campaign.

A year ago, nobody knew this guy.

Now, he's at the top of the nomination polls against a former VP, a Senator who almost won the nomination in 2016, 2 female sitting Senators and a billionaire with a media empire who can spend 500 Mio. $ alone for the primary.

[Tender Branson]

Even if he doesn't win today, Pete has run a great campaign.

A year ago, nobody knew this guy.

Now, he's at the top of the nomination polls against a former VP, a Senator who almost won the nomination in 2016, 2 female sitting Senators and a billionaire with a media empire who can spend 500 Mio. $ alone for the primary.

You sound nervous

Not really, I feel pretty good about today.

I'm more nervous about the next few states and Super Tuesday ...

[Tender Branson]

In my prediction, I said 300k voters in the DEM primary today (+/- 50k).

I'm going to lock it down now and say it's going to be at the lower end and predict 254.000

The GOP turnout is very hard to predict ...

[Tender Branson]

I just noticed that 2 of the 3 midnight voting towns have the most male populations in NH of all towns. Over 60% there are men. And Northern NH also has the highest percentages of old people. Southern NH is much more (sub)-urban, educated, female and younger.

Whatever this means ...

(At least this composition is very favourable for Pete.)

[Tender Branson]

I just noticed that 2 of the 3 midnight voting towns have the most male populations in NH of all towns. Over 60% there are men. And Northern NH also has the highest percentages of old people. Southern NH is much more (sub)-urban, educated, female and younger.

Whatever this means ...

(At least this composition is very favourable for Pete.)

Which composition? The candidate who benefits most from a more female electorate is Warren, not Pete, and "younger" and "more suburban (as opposed to rural)" aren't more favorable for Pete at all.

I do expect Pete to win at least two counties in Southern NH, but probably by decidedly anemic margins.

Educated, suburbian, middle-aged women are the biggest boosters of Pete's candidacy !