🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Tender Branson]

Blackblue Bayern is soon Green Bayern !



Vote for Chancellor in Bayern:



!!!

[Tender Branson]

These results out of Bayern would indicate ca. a 28-24 Union vs. Green lead in Germany right now.

[Tender Branson]

It would be pretty cool if the Annalena-Greens beat the Union in September.

But it would also mean that Germany once again would have a different government constellation than Austria.

It never had the same as we since WW2 (NSDAP).

[Tender Branson]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

Because she’s kinda cool and Laschet & Co. are dull ...

[Tender Branson]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Or sort of like Ardern for females and also for males you have Justin Trudeau as well.  All four young and a change from the status quo.

Annalena BearRam would be slightly more to the left though than Emmanuel Macron or Justin Biebertrudeau.

[Tender Branson]

Why is Annalena Baerbock so popular? The Greens increased when she was confirmed as Spitzenkandidat

1) Baerbock is a largely unknown quantity in federal politics. She never held any government office and embodies a genuinely new kind of politics (anti-populist; pragmatic; progressive; consensus-oriented). Voters like that. The fact that she's an energetic and relatively young woman among boring and much older men also helps. Both Scholz and Laschet appear dull and uncharismatic in comparison.

2) The way how the Grünen selected their Spitzenkandidatin was widely praised as exemplary. No drama or badmouthing but a great show of unity. As German voters tend to regard unity as a proxy for reliability and competence, this also helps.

3) Baerbock is entirely uncontroversial. No scandals. No dubious corporate past. Nothing.

4) Obviously, she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's immature power games.

5) Baerbock is one of the party's most prolific climate policy experts. And once the pandemic is over, climate change will be the No 1 issue again. There is great enthusiasm from Fridays for Future for her candidacy.

6) Did I already say that she benefited greatly from Laschet's unpopularity and Söder's... uh, I did.

So, according to this description, she is similar to Emmanuel Macron in 2017, except the gender

Or sort of like Ardern for females and also for males you have Justin Trudeau as well.  All four young and a change from the status quo.

Annalena BearRam would be slightly more to the left though than Emmanuel Macron or Justin Biebertrudeau.

How an adult person can be so cringy? Like, seriously what the hell with those "funny" surnames spelling? Are we in primary school?

If you don’t like it, you can hit the ignore button.

It’s not cringe, it’s pretty funny to translate her animal sounding name into English.

[Tender Branson]

ARDs Tagesguck poll has the Greens ahead and for the first time a number for the FW:

[Tender Branson]

Grüne and FDP = 37%
CDU/CSU and SPD = 37%

Exciting. Who would have expected this four years ago?

Even lower than Austria's Grand Coalition in its dying days (2014-2017) ... I think SPÖ+ÖVP never dropped below 40% combined.

CDU/CSU/SPD are completely worn out and Germans want something completely different: preferably something like Greens+FDP+FW, but they'd need another 5-10% ...

[Tender Branson]

Map of elections on June 6 + September 26:



Green:

Federal election in all 16 German states (26.9.)

Dark Green:

State elections in Sachsen-Anhalt (6.6.), Berlin, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Thüringen (all 26.9.), Upper Austria (26.9.)

Light Green:

Maybe a few referendums in Switzerland

[Tender Branson]

Has the Annalena Baerbock/Boris Palmer saga already been mentioned here ?

So, the controversial Green mayor of Tübingen since 2006, Boris Palmer, has come under Green fire for apparently „racist“ remarks about a former black German football player.

The football player and now 📺 commentator Dennis Aogo must be some sort of Kanye West and referred to himself once apparently jokingly as a „Ni**er Dick“.

After which Palmer said „Aogo is a real racist“. Palmer said he meant it ironically.

The Greens, in their political correctness, now started a party exclusion vote for Palmer - trying to get rid of him before the 2022 Tübingen mayoral election ...

Not a good move from Annalena if she wants her party to be big-tent.

Boris meanwhile criticizes Annalena for the Green „cancel culture“.

Damn, I like this guy ...

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus230983931/Boris-Palmer-ueber-Cancel-Culture-Ernsthafte-Gefahr-fuer-die-offene-Gesellschaft.html

[Tender Branson]

You can’t say it better than that:

[Tender Branson]

A tale of 2 recent controversial „vergasen“ (gassing) comments in Germany and Austria, with 2 totally different outcomes - even though both said exactly the same thing:



https://www.faz.net/aktuell/sport/fussball/dennis-aogo-nach-aussage-ueber-vergasen-nicht-mehr-sky-experte-17330111.html



https://www.heute.at/s/bis-zur-vergasung-aufregung-um-starmania-kandidatin-100140382

Shows how cancel culture is currently handled differently in Germany than in Austria.

The above mentioned Black-German former football player Dennis Aogo lost his TV commentator job after saying football players are often „training until gassing“.

Anna Buchegger, finalist (and eventual winner) of „Austrian Idol 2021“ a few days ago, said the same about her memorizing of vocals and lyrics.

It should be noted that saying „bis zur Vergasung trainieren/üben“ or „Gas geben“ was never really a controversial saying in German, until recently when people tried to put it into context with the Holocaust.

Also read here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=435108.0

[Tender Branson]

The fact that the black guy Dennis Aogo was basically forced to apologize for his „gas“ comment and quit his job shows you how politically correct Germany has become recently.

Anna Buchegger also apologized, but the comment here was basically treated as a slip of the tongue and was forgotten pretty quickly again.

[Tender Branson]

The latest trend is that CDU/CSU are going up again, Greens down again.

FDP up further.

[Tender Branson]

I just read about it.

Quite ironic that the female Ministers for Family in both Austria & Germany stepped down this year. Both because of plagiarism allegations.

[Tender Branson]

Baerbock (Greens) more and more in trouble ...

https://www.derbund.ch/auf-einmal-macht-baerbock-fehler-258960547400

Problems with properly declaring 30.000€ in bonus payments, questions about her Masters degree without acquiring a Bachelor degree, a nasty jab at Habeck (her co-party leader) whom she criticized as a „farmer“, while she’s an „expert in international law“ (well, without the Bachelor of course) ... Habeck has far more experience than her btw and has written 16 books and has a doctorate.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting developments in the latest MV poll.

In MV, there's some ticket splitting going on - according to Infratest dimap.

MV has state elections together with the federal election and while the MV-SPD drops by 8 points in the state election, it gains 3 points in the federal election ...

https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/mecklenburg-vorpommern/Vor-der-Landtagswahl-Umfrage-sieht-SPD-als-groessten-Verlierer,wahlumfrage840.html