European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

Great plot by the Green candidate Kogler:

Pulls out a blanko contract and signs an agreement handing over all campaign finances to the Court of Audit.

Then calls on the other 5 candidates to sign it as well.

Paper is handed over to every candidate. Every candidate signs it, even Vilimsky (FPÖ).

Also, Claudia Gamon (Neos) is very strong tonight: „Stop interrupting me. I‘m not done yet !“ (to Vilimsky).

[Tender Branson]

FPO will most likely remain in the 15-20 %. A drop indeed but not so severe, their base is too loyal.

I would be really surprised if they remain that high after these events ... 10-14% is more likely now. I think they will be cut in half, as most of their voters are either not turning out to vote at all next Sunday, or vote ÖVP.

Who do you think who was behind that campaign? I'd bet the farm that Böhmermann was the initiator.

It’s quite likely that Böhmermann was the Urheber.

But he better not say so in public, or he needs to get some bodyguards in the future ...

[Tender Branson]

Krone EU poll for Tyrol, conducted slightly before Ibiza-Gate:



Very good results for the Greens considering the 2014 results there.

[Tender Branson]

The City of Salzburg reports that about 14.000-15.000 postal ballots will be requested for the EU election until Friday afternoon.

That would be almost 2x the amount requested for the 2014 election and almost federal election-like.

Not sure what it means for turnout, but considering Ibiza, turnout might be much higher on Sunday than usual ...

https://www.sn.at/salzburg/politik/stadt-salzburg-meldet-wahlkarten-rekord-fuer-eu-wahl-am-kommenden-sonntag-70577509

[Tender Branson]

My district election commission notified me by e-mail that my postal ballot was received and registered for counting on May 14.

+1 vote for NEOS.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 5:30 was 24%, on par with 2014.

Sad.

I was hoping for a Europe-wide uptick in the turnout numbers.

But if it's not the case in the Netherlands, it probably is not the case anywhere else ... (except maybe for the UK and Austria, where the Brexit and recent Ibiza-Gate dominates).

[Tender Branson]

The final, big TV debate on ORF was held tonight.

They mostly talked about the Ibiza Gate fallout and Kurz‘s no-confidence vote on Monday, but the SP and FP candidates deferred their take on the issue to their group decisions on Monday.

The moderators then actually managed to shift the focus of the debate to EU issues such as climate change.



Also, tomorrow is the last day to request postal ballots (it seems a new record amount will be requested). I will post the numbers once they are released tomorrow night or on Saturday.

[Tender Branson]

My updated Austria EU prediction for Sunday:

32.5% ÖVP (+5.5%)
28.3% SPÖ (+4.2%)
15.4% FPÖ (-4.3%)
10.6% Greens (-3.9%)
10.0% NEOS (+1.9%)
  2.4% Europe (+2.4%)
  0.8% KPÖ (+0.8%)
  0.0% Others (-6.6%)

Turnout: 51.6% (+6.2%)

Seats (18): 6 ÖVP (+1), 5 SPÖ (n.c.), 3 FPÖ (-1), 2 Greens (-1), 2 NEOS (+1)

The 19th seat (after Brexit) would go to the SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

HUGE enthusiastic crowd at the FPÖs closing event in Vienna right now.

It’s possible that the FPÖ will not lose as much as the scandal would suggest ...

[Tender Branson]

Almost 700.000 postal ballots have been issued, a new record for an EU election.

In 2014, about 444.000 were requested and for the federal election in 2017 about 890.000

Tirol and Salzburg had the biggest increases, with almost double the amount of 2014.

https://www.bmi.gv.at/412/Europawahlen/Europawahl_2019/files/ausgestellte_WK_EW_19.pdf

Usually, this would suggest much higher turnout on Sunday.

[Tender Branson]

HUGE enthusiastic crowd at the FPÖs closing event in Vienna right now.

It’s possible that the FPÖ will not lose as much as the scandal would suggest ...

From the interviews with FPÖ-voters:

"I'm sticking with H.C. (Strache), I'm sticking with the FPÖ - no matter what happens. After all, we all have secrets and they put him in a trap and intoxicated him. The other parties are traitors for the country. I'm wondering what the videos of smoke-filled backrooms involving EU politicians would show, etc. etc."

[Tender Branson]

A non-scientific Krone poll suggests 76% turnout tomorrow ...

Would be nice of course, but it will be much lower than that.

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone have a schedule of when the results will begin to come out?

Polls are now open in most countries.

Results will only be released after 11pm European Time (5pm Eastern in the US), because of sh*tty Italy which keeps their polls open that long, but exit polls and the like will be released once each country closes their polls.

In Austria, this is the case at 5pm, in Germany at 6pm.

[Tender Branson]

Poll closing times for the 21 countries that are voting today (local time):

2pm: Luxemburg

3pm: Belgium

5pm: Austria, Cyprus

6pm: Germany, Greece

7pm: Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Slovenia

8pm: Denmark, France, Portugal, Romania, Spain

9pm: Poland, Sweden

11pm: Italy (needs to be nuked for such a time)

[Tender Branson]

Poll closing times for the 21 countries that are voting today (local time):

2pm: Luxemburg

3pm: Belgium

5pm: Austria, Cyprus

6pm: Germany, Greece

7pm: Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Slovenia

8pm: Denmark, France, Portugal, Romania, Spain

9pm: Poland, Sweden

11pm: Italy (needs to be nuked for such a time)

I don't know about you, but a 2 pm or 3 pm poll closing seems comically early to me.

Well, it's doable if voters are informed and motivated to vote.

For example, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Belgium and most smaller cities in Austria always close between noon (!) and 3 pm already and all manage turnouts of 80-90%.

[Tender Branson]

Poll closing times for the 21 countries that are voting today (adjusted for different time zones, using CEST, Central European Summer Time, as standard):

2pm: Luxemburg

3pm: Belgium

4pm: Cyprus

5pm: Austria, Greece

6pm: Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Lithuania

7pm: Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia

8pm: Denmark, France, Spain

9pm: Poland, Sweden, Portugal

11pm: Italy (needs to be nuked for such a time)

[Tender Branson]

EU elections 2019: Country-by-country guide on what to look out for



Austria

The big question in Austria is what impact the so-called Ibiza scandal will have on the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ). Its leader, Heinz-Christian Strache, resigned as Austria’s vice chancellor earlier this month after a secret video appeared to show him trying to trade public contracts for party donations from a woman he thought was the niece of a Russian oligarch. FPÖ came third in 2014's EU elections with 20% of the vote; latest projections suggest it will pick up around 18% this time, but that figure is down from 24.5% before the scandal broke.

Belgium

Belgium isn’t holding just one election on Sunday, but three: federal, regional and European. In the latter, will the greens capitalise on a strong showing in local elections to improve on their 6.6% vote share in 2014? Like many other European countries, Belgium also has a far-right party, Vlaams Belang, which is forecast to get up to 14.8% of the vote in Flanders. Nationally, the party got 4.2% five years ago.

Denmark

There are fears the dramatic campaign for Denmark’s general election — set for June 5 — will overshadow the European Parliament poll and hit turnout. Some are saying Danes are more concerned with the domestic vote, which is predicted to see Stram Kurs, a far-right party advocating the forced deportation of up to 700,000 Muslims, gain seats in parliament. Voter turnout for EU elections in Denmark was 56.32% in 2014, 59.54% five years earlier and 47.89% in 2004.

Estonia

The key question in Estonia is whether anti-EU, far-right party Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond (EKRE) will perform as well in these European elections as it did in March’s national poll. That election saw EKRE come third, winning it a place in the ruling coalition. The party won 4% of the vote in 2014’s European poll; this time around it is forecast to get as much as 17%.

Finland

Finland is another country that is predicted to see a green surge. Forecasts suggest the country’s environmentalist movement is set to get the second biggest share of the vote. Its predicted 17.2% vote share would be more than double its performance in 2014.

France

All eyes will be on whether the party of pro-European president Emmanuel Macron — under pressure domestically from the anti-government “gilets jaunes” (yellow vests) protesters — will be beaten into second place by Marine Le Pen. Le Pen — who lost out to Macron in France’s presidential election — and her National Rally movement is forecast to get the biggest vote share in Sunday’s election. Her previous party, Front National, won the 2014 vote with a 24% share. Macron’s La Republique En Marche! movement did not exist then.

Germany

There has been a surge in support for the German Green Party in federal polls and some are even daring to dream the movement could spawn its first chancellor. In forecasts for the European Parliament elections, it has been polling in second at around 18%, which is an improvement on its 10.70% vote share in 2014. It is worth keeping an eye on the anti-migrant and anti-euro Alternative for Germany (AfD), who won seven seats five years ago and entered the national parliament for the first time in 2017.

Greece

With national elections due in October, Greeks have been concentrating on domestic issues ahead of the EU poll. The country’s economic situation and the name change agreement with North Macedonia have taken precedence over European issues. The ruling Syriza party is trailing the conservative New Democracy movement in opinion polls ahead of the vote. Some have speculated that any win for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his Syriza party would prompt him to call a snap general election in June.

Hungary

Hungary’s nationalist prime minister Viktor Orban has frequently clashed with Brussels over rule of law and migration. The conflict has seen his Fidesz party suspended from the centre-right European People’s Party grouping in the parliament. It will, therefore, be interesting to see whether this hostility affects Hungarian voters. In 2014 right-wing anti-EU parties came first and second: Fidesz with a 51.48% vote share and Jobbik on 14.67%. Will it be different this time around?

Ireland

Ireland went to the ballot box on Friday and the Pro-EU Fine Gael party of Prime Minister Leo Varadkar was expected to be the biggest party.

Italy

The future of the Italian government is strictly connected to the outcome of the European Parliament elections. The two ruling parties, The League and the Five Star Movement, have spent the last couple of weeks fighting about every topic on the political agenda. Polls predict Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini's party will come out stronger than ever. His party, then the Northern League, won 6% of the vote in 2014. Latest projections suggest the League will get more than 30% this time around. If he is crowned winner, will he pull the plug and call for new elections, with the aim of forming a right-wing led government and dismiss the despised ally?

Netherlands

Anti-EU parties, including Geert Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV), were forecast to pick up more than one-third of the vote share.

Poland

Poland’s EU elections kick-off a series of polls in the country: a parliamentary one follows in the autumn before a presidential vote next year. Some say polls point to this being the beginning of the end for the ruling Eurosceptic Law and Justice Party (PiS). With the country at odds with Brussels over the independence of its judiciary, it will be interesting to see if PiS can improve on its 31.78% vote share in 2014. All eyes will also be on Poland’s first openly gay politician Robert Biedroń and the performance of his newly-formed pro-EU party Wiosna (Spring).

Portugal

Portugal is one of the few EU countries without a strongly-performing far-right populist party. This election has seen the emergence of Andre Ventura’s radical-right Basta! (Enough!) movement, which opposes the EU. Campaigning has focussed on the opposition attacking Portugal’s ruling socialists on domestic issues, with an eye on a forthcoming national poll. It will, therefore, be interesting to see whether the pro-EU socialists are able to better their performance from 2014 when they got 34% of the vote.

Romania

The ruling Social Democrats (PSD) have clashed with Brussels over anti-corruption and rule of law reforms. It will be interesting to see if they manage to come out on top, amid conflict with the EU and regular anti-government protests. Running them close will be pro-EU National Liberal Party (PNL). Both parties are predicted to get around 28% of the votes. PNL and other pro-EU parties may be helped by the fact there is a referendum being held at the same time on PSD's controversial reforms.

Slovakia

One of the most interesting things to watch in Slovakia is turnout: just 13.05% voted in 2014, the lowest figure in the EU. Look too at the performance of Progressive Slovakia, the party of newly-elected pro-EU president Zuzana Caputova, and compare it with the anti-Brussels, far-right movement of People's Party - Our Slovakia. Meanwhile, while the ruling social democrats (SMER-SD) are predicted to win, their vote share could fall — from 24% in 2014 — after anti-government protests over the last year.

Spain

One curiosity of Spain’s EU poll is whether ex-Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont — currently exiled in Belgium — will get elected. And, if he does, whether he’ll be able to take up his seat, as Euronews looked at in this article. More widely, will the far-right Vox Party be successful in getting its candidates to Brussels and Strasbourg? Or will it be a repeat of April’s general election? That poll saw an important Socialist majority and a lower-than-expected result for Vox.

Sweden

Will Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg’s climate campaigning across Europe help persuade her compatriots to back environmentally-conscious parties? Sweden’s Greens came second five years ago, with 15.41% of the vote, but may feel they can improve on that this time. Experts also say to look out for the performance of the far-right Sweden Democrats, who have softened their stance on Europe in the light of Brexit. They got two MEPs for their 9.67% vote share last time around.

United Kingdom

Will voters punish the traditional two main parties — Labour and Conservative — for failing to deliver Brexit by switching to the new political movement fronted by anti-EU MEP Nigel Farage? And while the anti-Brexit vote will be split by the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Change UK, will it add up to more than that of Farage’s Brexit Party?

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Some countries like Latvia, Luxemburg, Malta etc. are not mentioned because they are the Wyomings of Europe and nobody really cares about them.

[Tender Branson]

How Austria's joint media (ORF, ATV, APA) projection for 5pm works:

High voter dynamics expected

On Sunday, May 26, European Elections take place in Austria for the sixth time since accession in 1995.

First forecast at 17:00

Other than in previous elections, authorities will publish official results from the Austrian polling stations only after 23:00.

Therefore, the national public service station ORF, the private TV-station ATV and the Austria Press Agency co-operate for providing a first forecast at the basis of surveys:

* n=5.200 interviews (4.200 telephone, 1.000 online) are carried out from May 21 until May 26 by three research institutes (SORA, Peter Hajek, ARGE Wahlen)

* The confidence interval of this forecast is expected to be around +/-2,5 percentage points and will be communicated on May 26.

Throughout election night, all SORA forecasts can be found on ORF TV and Internet (orf.at or the ORF news App) and on Twitter via @sora_institut.

Final forecast shortly after 23:00

After official results from polling stations (excl. postal vote) are communicated at 23:00, SORA adds a forecast of the postal vote. The remaining confidence interval of this final forecast will be at +/- 0,5 percentage points. The official election result is expected for Monday evening after the postal vote has been counted.

Analyses and motives

Who voted for what party and for what reasons? On Monday, May 27, SORA provides the results of voter transition analyses and the ORF/SORA/ISA election day survey among 1.200 voters online here.

https://www.sora.at/nc/en/news-press/news/news-single-view/news/eu-election-in-austria-904.html

[Tender Branson]

The weather today is cloudy/rainy in the ÖVP- and Green-areas in the West, but sunny and warmer in the traditional SPÖ- and FPÖ-areas in the East and South:

[Tender Branson]

H.C. Strache (FPÖ) could be elected to the EU parliament today:

He's ranked #42 on the FPÖ's EU party list, but if enough FPÖ voters outfit him with preference votes (!) today, he would be elected.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Twitteria (= some poll workers) report relatively good turnout numbers in their precincts so far.

Authorities are not releasing any official numbers during Election Day though, after the strict Supreme Court ruling in 2016.

[Tender Branson]

... for electronic voting.

What do you mean by electronic voting ? I thought only Estonia has it ?

[Tender Branson]

Based on Twitter information, I now predict a 54-56% turnout.

That would be +10% compared with 2014.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout reports:

Germany and Austria: up moderately by 5-10%
UK: up slightly ca. 5%
France, Netherlands and Denmark: up slightly ca. 4%
Italy and Portugal: stable
Poland: twice the turnout of 2014 so far

[Tender Branson]

2 rumors I heard:

In Austria ÖVP strong, SPÖ stagnant, FPÖ with losses, strong Greens and stagnant NEOS.

In Germany CDU/CSU ahead close race for second between SPD and Greens.

Not that it's wrong or something, but I doubt there are rumours about results - just for certain turnout reports in some precincts.