European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Diouf]

https://www.geenstijl.nl/

They have a video stream

[Senator Incitatus]

There's kinda a home-state effect going on since spitzenkandidat Timmermans for the S&D Europe-wide is on the ballot there. At least this was what was expected, according to @EuropeElects.

Good point; hadn't considered this.

[Keep Calm and ...]

via EuropeElects:

Changes after Brexit
PvdD (GUE/NGL) currently at 0, after Brexit at 1
PvdA (S&D) currently at 5, after Brexit 6
VVD (ALDE) currently at 4, after Brexit 5

[Diouf]

Can someone explain what GeenStijl is showing from these individual polling places.

They show each party with two different scores. One in grey and one in party colour. Is it comparison to last time, to predicted national result or?

[SunSt0rm]

Can someone explain what GeenStijl is showing from these individual polling places.

They show each party with two different scores. One in grey and one in party colour. Is it comparison to last time, to predicted national result or?

I am not really paying attention, but I guess that the color score is the result, and the grey score is the benchmark (they calculated) they need to reach that to get the particular seat, but I don't know what the benchmark is. For 50+, SP and PvdD I guess its 1 seat, GL 3 seats and D66 and CU/SGP 2 seats. I am not sure if they benchmark for each polling seat or municipality. But I expect the benchmark for the polling station are not accurate as people can vote at any polling station they want in their municipality

[Diouf]

As I understand, this is their projection after results from 56 polling places

PvdA 6
VVD 4
FvD 4
CDA 4
GL 3
D66 2
CU/SGP 2
PvD 1
PVV 0
SP 0

[IceAgeComing]

Wait are they counting today?  Didn't think they were allowed to do that!

[SunSt0rm]

Wait are they counting today?  Didn't think they were allowed to do that!

They are counting, but they are not allowed to publish them officially. Geenstijl just sent volunteers to several polling stations to write down the results so they may project the result based on the partial results

[SunSt0rm]

So there is a chance that 50+, PVV, SP and PvdD may all not reach the threshold making PvdA making gaining more seats. But that they have to return these seats after Brexit as the threshold will be lower which they will all reach as the there will 29 seats to distribute instead of 26 seats

[Boobs]

Reports of the PdvA’s death have been greatly exaggerated.

[IceAgeComing]

So there is a chance that 50+, PVV, SP and PvdD may all not reach the threshold making PvdA making gaining more seats. But that they have to return these seats after Brexit as the threshold will be lower which they will all reach as the there will 29 seats to distribute instead of 26 seats

my understanding was that they'd allocate seats based on the 29 seat allocation but then not make the last three MEPs until Brexit - that's wrong then?

[SunSt0rm]

Reports of the PdvA’s death have been greatly exaggerated. 

Polls have shown some recovery for the PvdA, but this result is pure the Timmermans effect not the fact that people are liking PvdA again.

[Diouf]

So there is a chance that 50+, PVV, SP and PvdD may all not reach the threshold making PvdA making gaining more seats. But that they have to return these seats after Brexit as the threshold will be lower which they will all reach as the there will 29 seats to distribute instead of 26 seats

Do you think they could actually "call back" a PvdA MEP? I can't imagine that would happen. They could give the next three "in line" seats if UK leaves, but actually drawing back seats would be really weird.

[SunSt0rm]

So there is a chance that 50+, PVV, SP and PvdD may all not reach the threshold making PvdA making gaining more seats. But that they have to return these seats after Brexit as the threshold will be lower which they will all reach as the there will 29 seats to distribute instead of 26 seats

my understanding was that they'd allocate seats based on the 29 seat allocation but then not make the last three MEPs until Brexit - that's wrong then?

Threshold is different, Pre-Brexit threshold for 26 seats is 3.85%, whereas post-brexit for 29 seats is 3.45%. Its very unsure that these 4 parties will reach the threshold pre-Brexit, but its very certain that they will reach the threshold for post-brexit

[NyIndy]

Are there going to be British Exit polls?

[Baki]

Are there going to be British Exit polls?

I don't think so.
I've read on a few places that according to UK law they're not allowed to publish or forecast how a party or a candidate have done in the election until all EU voting has been concluded.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just need to replicate that in another 27 countries then, hey?

If the MUH GLOBAL TRENDS theory is to be believed, we can expect all center-left parties to do well!

[xelas81]

Wait are they counting today?  Didn't think they were allowed to do that!

They are counting, but they are not allowed to publish them officially. Geenstijl just sent volunteers to several polling stations to write down the results so they may project the result based on the partial results

So it is sub-sample for the exit poll?

[DavidB.]

So there is a chance that 50+, PVV, SP and PvdD may all not reach the threshold making PvdA making gaining more seats. But that they have to return these seats after Brexit as the threshold will be lower which they will all reach as the there will 29 seats to distribute instead of 26 seats

my understanding was that they'd allocate seats based on the 29 seat allocation but then not make the last three MEPs until Brexit - that's wrong then?

Its done on the basis of 26 seats, so the no Brexit scenario

[Former President tack50]

Nice to see Sanchez's Megacoattails helping the left across Europe and country borders

[Tender Branson]

The final, big TV debate on ORF was held tonight.

They mostly talked about the Ibiza Gate fallout and Kurz‘s no-confidence vote on Monday, but the SP and FP candidates deferred their take on the issue to their group decisions on Monday.

The moderators then actually managed to shift the focus of the debate to EU issues such as climate change.



Also, tomorrow is the last day to request postal ballots (it seems a new record amount will be requested). I will post the numbers once they are released tomorrow night or on Saturday.

[Lord Halifax]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912

[CumbrianLefty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1131669660385062912

Looks like fairly blatant expectation management to me - Tories will do badly, but *that* badly??

Meanwhile the final UK poll for this election - by Survation and taken yesterday - has BxP on 31% and Labour second on 23% (still well ahead of the LibDems)

[DavidB.]

Geenstijl has PvdA 6 VVD 4 CDA 4 FVD 3 GL 3 CUSGP 2 D66 2 50Plus 1 PvdD 1 SP 0 PVV 0 volt 2% denk 1%

[Tender Branson]

My updated Austria EU prediction for Sunday:

32.5% ÖVP (+5.5%)
28.3% SPÖ (+4.2%)
15.4% FPÖ (-4.3%)
10.6% Greens (-3.9%)
10.0% NEOS (+1.9%)
  2.4% Europe (+2.4%)
  0.8% KPÖ (+0.8%)
  0.0% Others (-6.6%)

Turnout: 51.6% (+6.2%)

Seats (18): 6 ÖVP (+1), 5 SPÖ (n.c.), 3 FPÖ (-1), 2 Greens (-1), 2 NEOS (+1)

The 19th seat (after Brexit) would go to the SPÖ.