Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Senator Incitatus]

Leonardo di Caprio tweeted in order to give an incentive for 16-17 year old Brazilians to register to vote. For this age group, voting is allowed, but not mandatory.
https://twitter.com/LeoDiCaprio/status/1519767667363790848

Why did he tweet this instead of just telling his girlfriends himself?

[Senator Incitatus]

Of course, it's impossible to explain the political view of the inhabitants of a city due to the immigrants of more than 100 years ago. But it's interesting to see these coincidences.

Strongly disagree. Most political trends are downstream of factors determined centuries ago, perhaps even at the foundation of this world. We are only beginning to understand this, but it is possible.

[Senator Incitatus]

The only question I have is the most important and straightforward one: which candidate's supporters should we expect to have the worse turnout differential?

My instinct says Lula due to (1) disappointment in the first round results and (2) the stereotype of them as a poor coalition which has to make a greater effort to vote; my understanding is that Brazilian turnout differentials have not undergone the sort of transformation American ones have. (I still see Lula as the favorite despite this belief, since polls didn't overestimate his support so much as they underestimated Bolsonaro's.) But I profess little deep knowledge of the electorate.

[Senator Incitatus]

https://twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1577006655111254016

Seems desperate and could backfire if it runs into legal challenges if my Brazilian friend is to be believed.

A legal challenge would be a disastrous event for Lula, IMO. Giving cash to voters is the perfect opportunity for a Jacksonian "The Chief Justice has made his decision, now let him enforce it" moment. Imagine a populist candidate being able to say "I want to help poor and struggling families but the unelected jurists want to stop me! Empower me to break the system! I will push ahead full steam!"

I said and still say that Trump should have done this in 2020. That alone probably would have won him the necessary votes. We'll see how it works out for Bolsonaro, in the event the courts tee it up for him. Obviously, it's slightly different in that the payments are owed already, and he is just moving them up, which is a bit more transparent than pushing for a new round of payments.

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like both polls significantly tightened from their pre-election second round polling (+15 to +8 and +8 to +4), though Poder's was back on Sep. 20. I still consider Lula favored but I take it we shouldn't be completely shocked if Bolsonaro survives?

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like both polls significantly tightened from their pre-election second round polling (+15 to +8 and +8 to +4), though Poder's was back on Sep. 20. I still consider Lula favored but I take it we shouldn't be completely shocked if Bolsonaro survives?

For context, no second place finisher has even won the second round of a Brazilian presidential election. It would be pretty shocking just from a historic point of view.

Appreciate that context but history doesn't mean much in making predictions. There has also never been a first round as close as this one and the only reasonable comparison, 2006, doesn't seem to apply here.

[Senator Incitatus]

Modalmais 2nd round poll.  Lula ahead 49-46

They haven't polled since August, but this would actually show a gain for Lula from 45-44.

[Senator Incitatus]

what's happen now ? is bolsonaro changed strategy to win ? more moderate ? more unity ? a new man, at least on paper ?

Would imagine a lot of any shift to Bolsonaro is (a) pollsters improving methodology, since they now have a much better sense of who is making a choice and (b) the “back-the-winner” mentality, in which voters are more likely to choose Bolsonaro because they now view him as viable.

Still will be moderately surprised to see him get over the hump.

[Senator Incitatus]

Economist poll of polls. I am not aware of any polls that has the race as tied

I can't make sense of the Economist model. They also had Lula at around 57% before the first round, when no polls had yet found that. I assumed at that point they'd been simply discarding undecideds/non-responses, but this is clearly something different, since Lula leads in every poll.

[Senator Incitatus]

There is now a humorous Wikipedia edit war (perhaps the adjective is redundant) over whether or not to include the Economist model in the list of aggregates: https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_Brazilian_presidential_election&action=history

[Senator Incitatus]

Onyx Lorenzoni is an absolutely insane name, especially for such an unremarkable looking man.

[Senator Incitatus]

In retrospect, Lula was actually quite good even if he suffered from a blocked debate. Even the complaining about Bolsonaro stuff may have been a strategy to imprint the idea on viewers that Bolsonaro isn’t as presidential as him. Let’s see if that works, I hope people don’t perceive him as arrogant because of that.

The Viagra moment was such a win for Lula lmao. Also very easy to meme, which is better to viralize on the web.

Lula: “You bought 35k boxes of viagra for the Armed Forces. Why did you buy them so much viagra?”

Bolsonaro: “Viagra is proved to also be an effective treatment for Prostate cancer”

Lula: “So why not buy it for entire population then so they can have this treatment? Only the Armed forces have Prostate cancer?”

Bolsonaro: “…”

I had thought Bolsonaro was the stupid candidate in this race until reading this.

[Senator Incitatus]

Seems good for Lula so far.

[Senator Incitatus]

suspend democracy asap

You say this as if democracy is a rule. What would it mean to "suspend democracy"?

[Senator Incitatus]

I cannot mourn for Bolsonaro, who proved himself to be ineffective and/or stupid during most of his time in office. None of Brazil's many problems will be solved in the very near future.

The Bolsonarists should seek a stronger man for the next contest; unlike in the United States, such an alternative may exist. I don't know enough to say. More likely, the narrow result will result in his eventual return to office (assuming he actually leaves).