GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

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Herschel is an idiot. He probably will get 5%-7% of the Black vote, and probably 10% of the Black vote.

...

Impressive. The quantum candidate.

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Honestly, I think attacking Walker has to be done strategically because otherwise it may come across as bullying to some.

It's darkly humorous that nobody even considers the possibility of simply not attacking your opponent anymore.

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https://twitter.com/mere___dith/status/1575606029424828416

This ad is very good.

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About to move this down below Pennsylvania, maybe Arizona, on the list of potential Republican gains. What a colossal failure of vetting/research.

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Erickson is a hack, but this man appears baffled by the idea of an even-mildly independent press. Just because Maggie Haberman gets her stories and framing directly from Democratic campaigns doesn’t mean anyone else should.

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He should probably drop out at this point. It’s a complete Parnell.

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The number of Twitter peeps saying that Christian's account was "hacked" despite him posting monologue videos reinforcing the text in his tweets is worrying. 

I've said this in other contexts, probably not on this forum, but I think 2014 was around "peak trust" for society, for reasons totally out of anyone's control. The existence of high-quality recording technology slightly outpaced the ability to falsify recordings, but hasn't kept up; as things like deep fakes and AI art become accessible in the mainstream, it will almost become impossible to believe your eyes.

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[tweet]

Question about focus groups, and maybe an experienced user like Pollster can answer here: isn't it almost impossible to get a geographically representative sample in a state even as large as Georgia? I understand that they're not meant to be statistically representative, obviously, but it feels irresponsible to just report the state and not say where exactly this is: Athens? Atlanta?

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[tweet]

Question about focus groups, and maybe an experienced user like Pollster can answer here: isn't it almost impossible to get a geographically representative sample in a state even as large as Georgia? I understand that they're not meant to be statistically representative, obviously, but it feels irresponsible to just report the state and not say where exactly this is: Athens? Atlanta?

The most likely area to find a bunch of Trump 16 / Biden 20 voters is the Atlanta suburbs.

That's my assumption but doesn't answer my question, which is about focus groups more generally.

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I don’t know the last time there’s been a political candidate I personally despised this much.

In a serious race? Probably not a while.

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Is there a point where we put this in the Roy Moore tier of campaign implosions?

I mean, Walker never sexually assaulted minors (I hope), so no.

Wouldn’t be too shocked given that era in sports.

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Do you really think a klansman came up to Herschel Walker and said he was wrong because of Herschel? Does that make sense? Note that John Lewis was from a different generation and was admired across the aisle. Walker… isn’t.

I am 100% certain Herschel Walker was more widely admired than John Lewis for a time, especially in Georgia. (That doesn't mean I applaud this fact or believe politicians' stories.)

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I think we’ve all confused Warnock and Walker’s names at some point.

not me (anti-racist)

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Have been at the gym, but I assume this is going as expected:

Warnock is the heavy favorite, but his winning won't matter—never does. If Walker makes a huge gaffe however, that will matter and could be the nail in his campaign's coffin.

A major caveat here is that the expectations for Walker are so, so low—I literally don't think they could be lower—that he has an opportunity to shore up Republican confidence by not melting down.

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I moved from supporting nobody to supporting Walker after this debate.

I genuinely don’t know how this debate could improve your opinion of Walker, can you please elaborate?

I can understand if it didn’t change your opinion, or if you were supporting him before and continue to do so, but to go from undecided to pro-Walker? How?

I went into the debate thinking he was very stupid because of the media coverage. I thought he did perfectly fine in the debate and I definitely underestimated him. He answered questions far more directly than Warnock and held Warnock's feet to the fire when Warnock tried to act as if he was not just a Biden rubber stamp. He handled conflict well and was respectful at the same time.

I had low expectations for Walker, but they were pretty much met and not exceeded. He seems pretty dumb from the clips I caught—to be fair, I assume the too-boring-to-clip moments are the ones in which he would be most coherent.

Doesn't seem like this is going to move many votes and the race is still Lean Warnock, for me.

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Really hate when idiot candidates go into a debate, (for the most part) talk in complete sentences, and everyone screams "debate bounce!"

Welcome to politics, I guess. See also: the current and prior President of the United States.

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Anyone ever notice this "low expectations" thing really only happens with Republican candidates? The media never gives this much benefit of the doubt to a Democrat.

He's literally the President of the United States right now. (It also happened in the second 2012 debate.)

Do you think the media would fall over themselves praising Fetterman, for example, if he showed up to a debate and waived around his fake sheriff's badge?

I'm not sure if the media will, for reasons elaborated on elsewhere, but voters almost certainly will. Fetterman has a real chance to put himself in the driver's seat in his debate because expectations are so low.

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The twitterverse seems to be saying "Walker won" so that probably is a net plus for him, if at all.

Congratulations to Herschel Walker and John Fetterman for becoming Senators from the great state of Twitter.

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In addition to the low expectations Walker had for the debate, there's another angle: a lot of people are looking for an excuse to vote for him after the scandals, because they are loyal Republicans or suffering under inflation. Walker giving them that excuse is bound to create a disconnect between his actual performance and their reaction to it.

I do now think Walker can avoid a total free-fall and preserve a run-off, though I still think Warnock probably wins it. It will depend on Senate control at that point, and I'll reëvaluate if that time comes.

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Shocked by the revelation that Herschel Walker can write.

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Latham Saddler would have put this race away a week or more ago.