Special Election megathread (6/11: OH-6, 6/25: CO-4)

[Senator Incitatus]

Very cursory research tells me that if/when Flores wins, she'll become the first woman born in Mexico ever elected to the House and the third Mexican-American Republican woman ever elected (after Barbara Vucanovich and Jaime Herrera Beutler).

[Senator Incitatus]

Here's where the NYT county results are so far, ordered by Vela's margin, which typically also means from south to north (all results partial, will update):

County	2020 Margin	2022 Margin*
Willacy	D+30	R+2
Hidalgo	D+26	D+19
Cameron	D+26	D+2
Kenedy	D+8	—
Kleberg	D+1.5	R+15.2
Jim Wells	R+3	—
San Patricio	R+4	R+5
Bee	R+24.5	R+38
Goliad	R+54	R+58
Gonzales	R+60	R+64
De Witt	R+64	—

As you might expect, Flores is improving much more in the south than in the already-Republican north. Anyone know whether or not this is early vote? Consistent 40% reporting across all counties.

[Senator Incitatus]

Kenedy County (30 votes) is naturally the first to finish reporting. Sanchez wins by 7 points, close to Vela's margin.

[Senator Incitatus]

Seeing that the 47-45 margin in Cameron for Sanchez is in fact all early vote. Seems likely Flores wins Cameron and will avoid the runoff.

Kenedy County (30 votes) is naturally the first to finish reporting. Sanchez wins by 7 points, close to Vela's margin.

Totally immaterial

Thank you for your material commentary.

[Senator Incitatus]

Interesting that this story, while not in the district, dropped tonight, probably too late to affect any votes. Many of the voters are CBP agents or relatives of one; Flores's husband is an agent:

https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1536846948061401094

[Senator Incitatus]

Here's where the NYT county results are so far, ordered by Vela's margin, which typically also means from south to north (all results partial, will update):

[-table-]

As you might expect, Flores is improving much more in the south than in the already-Republican north. Anyone know whether or not this is early vote? Consistent 40% reporting across all counties.

Are all of these counties in the district?

In the new district? No. It cuts off a lot of the Republican north and Gonzalez is a strong favorite.

[Senator Incitatus]

Flores already on the verge of hitting 50%. Just took the lead in Cameron. Don't see any chance of Sanchez holding her off now. You can call it.

Update (bold margins final):

County	2020 Margin	2022 Margin*
Willacy	D+30	R+2
Hidalgo	D+26	D+9
Cameron	D+26	R+0.1
Kenedy	D+8	D+7
Kleberg	D+1.5	R+20
Jim Wells	R+3	R+7
San Patricio	R+4	R+13
Bee	R+24.5	R+53
Goliad	R+54	R+64
Gonzales	R+60	R+64
De Witt	R+64	R+69

[Senator Incitatus]

It blows my mind that people are extrapolating from a race with such pathetically low turnout. Dems are going to have a bad midterm, but this election has a small fraction of the votes of even the 2017 special elections where Dems fought in Republican seats. We see the 2020 realignment with extra apathy and a small swing away from Biden. There’s a good reason all the Republicans on Twitter keep calling back to Clinton and Obama, not Biden, for a comparison.

Collin and Denton for Cameron is a good trade.

As some have pointed out elsewhere, there's no reason a low turnout race should favor Republicans in an area that is has deep Democratic roots. That higher turnout demographics (older voters who have shown up in the past) are not voting Democratic (either abstaining or flipping) is terrible news and compounded by the fact that Republicans are either motivating Democrats to vote for them or getting brand-new Republicans to show up.

[Senator Incitatus]

This thing appears to be well over, but here's another update. Will be interested to see if Flores can actually hold onto her slim Cameron County lead; that would have to be historic (and consistent with VA/NJ R+13 national swing).

Update (bold margins final):

County	2020 Margin	2022 Margin	Swing
Willacy	D+30	R+2	R+32
Hidalgo	D+26	D+9	R+17
Cameron	D+26	R+0.1	—
Kenedy	D+8	D+7	R+1
Kleberg	D+1.5	R+20	—
Jim Wells	R+3	R+7	—
San Patricio	R+4	R+13	R+9
Bee	R+24.5	R+54	R+29.5
Goliad	R+54	R+64	R+10
Gonzales	R+60	R+72	R+12
De Witt	R+64	R+71	R+7

[Senator Incitatus]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I'm sure I don't need to explain to you how leading indicators work and the difference between presidential and downballot races.

Ok, she’s over 50 now, I can go to bed.

Sleep well!

[Senator Incitatus]

In case anyone thought Democratic politicians are interested in learning any lessons from this. We’re losing 80% Hispanic districts and they’re blaming white supremacy…
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I mean, we all know the endgame here is for the Democratic Party to start obsessing about racial differences within the broader "Hispanic" identity. White Hispanics are destined for the same relative treatment as Italians or Poles, which will be worse in absolute terms given how the hatred of whites has risen generally.

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What are the dynamics here?

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I'm guessing Brooks will still lose, but it will be far closer than anyone expected.

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So in the end this turned out to be exactly where I expected. No change in outlook whatsoever.

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If you're on the East Coast and considering staying up for Alaska results... reconsider.

[Senator Incitatus]

Seems obvious that the result in Virginia is secure, but what is the benchmark percentage? Something less than McEachin's 63.8%?

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like we have a race on our hands with the anti-Regunberg vote managing to coalesce for Amo.

[Senator Incitatus]

Providence just dumped 60% of its votes and it was Regunberg 33 - Amo 26. Still not even enough for Regunberg to take the lead.

Maybe Amo can actually pull this off???!

Probably not if even that margin is replicated in the rest of Providence and the bordering towns. That's going to be the vast majority of the district's vote. But it's closer than I'd have guessed before results came in.

Any sense of which precincts these are?

edit: Amo is leading in all of the bordering towns and cities, so it could happen. Is that election day or early voting?

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like Regunberg is probably going to finish third in Pawtucket, and that could be the difference. Still a decent amount of Providence vote out there.

[Senator Incitatus]

But maybe only campaigning on the campus of Brown wasn't the best idea.

Building a political career representing college students, i.e., the most transient voter base possible, is probably also not a recipe for success.