PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

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Republicans probably should and will abandon Parnell unless he can unequivocally show these allegations are untrue. They show him to be horrible and probably unelectable unless a massive wave carries him over the top. Needless baggage with plenty of good alternatives.

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Republicans probably should and will abandon Parnell unless he can unequivocally show these allegations are untrue. They show him to be horrible and probably unelectable unless a massive wave carries him over the top. Needless baggage with plenty of good alternatives.

Eh, I mean who though? Bartos? Who feels like the Gary Black of this race? The PA GOP senate bench is horrific to say the least, Parnell included

Plenty of candidates are not currently running because the race seemed to be solidifying behind Parnell. There is a deep bench of U.S. and State Representatives. Or I could see one of the lagging Governor candidates, McSwain or Mastriano, jumping in here once Barletta sews up that primary. Still early days.

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Has anyone mentioned that Dr. Oz is apparently thinking about running as a Republican?

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Lord help me, I think I'm rooting for Barnette. Sands was always my preferred option, but she doesn't seem to have much of a chance. What a ridiculous race.

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My gut says Barnette wins the primary.

I think so, too. Braun 2018 dynamic at play. Have to see whether or not she can get in front of voters in these remaining days, though. Braun had plenty to spend in a much smaller market.

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Laughing at the Owens tweet saying that Philly voters think Lamb is "better in Congress." Nice reminder for this forum that the average voter has no idea what's going on.

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Laughing at the Owens tweet saying that Philly voters think Lamb is "better in Congress." Nice reminder for this forum that the average voter has no idea what's going on.

Was having dinner with a friend and his parents (former-Reagan-Republicans-turned-Obama-Democrats), both Ivy League educated engineers. 

When a campaign ad appeared on TV for Josh Shapiro, this friend's mother turned to me and asked, "there's elections this year, right? What party is this guy?"

Ahhhh the American electorate. 

As they should be. Electoral politics is a hobby for those interested in geography and mass psychology but not really something the average person should concern themselves over.

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RE: Barnette's campaign not answering questions from reporters, we should probably keep in mind that she has an extremely amateur outfit. They're probably overwhelmed right now. Her surge has been entirely the result of two weak front-runners and her own personal charisma. They're playing the right strategy by simply hanging up on people.

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My gut says Barnette is going to be the next Senator from Pennsylvania with a campaign more similar to Trump 2016 than any since.

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The Fettermemes are going to be very funny, especially when he gets >65% in Montgomery and <45% in Luzerne.

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The Fettermemes are going to be very funny, especially when he gets >65% in Montgomery and <45% in Luzerne.

I mean basically all you're saying is Fetterman is more popular with younger voters and professionals whereas Lamb is more popular with older voters/the industrial trades (he has the endorsements but Idk how rank-and-file will break aside from along general regional lines) so maybe who knows?

What's very poignant is Casey hasn't made an endorsement. THAT is the telling sign the state party doesn't know who they like and is fine w/letting the process play out between the 3 of them.

I'm talking about in the general. I don't expect Fetterman to lose any counties in the primary.

I'm saying his personal "appeal" to "white working class" regions will mean nothing in the end given partisan rigidity and his actual background as the Harvard-educated finance-bro striver son of an insurance executive.

If anything, I think the scrutiny of his first really high-profile campaign could make him a less-than-average candidate with his alleged base. Nobody likes a faker, and Carhartt poseurs are the Northeast/Midwest version of all-hat-no-cattle. Put out one ad buy with an actual member of the working class mocking him and it's over. I assume the memes are tongue-in-cheek since this forum tends to know better.

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Damn 52 year olds don’t typically have strokes. Hope he’s alright.

Large men can experience a number of health risks due simply to their size and the difficulty of early diagnosis. Wish him the best.

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Just got home but surprised by both McCormick and Barnette, but this goes to show the value of money in the bank on election day. McCormick had a professional operation in place and Barnette didn't. It's not everything, but it helps in a close race.

Anyway, both races remain Lean R for me.

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Oz is the weaker candidate. Stop the count!

Both candidates are weak but I genuinely don't see how anyone could believe McCormick is the stronger of the two.

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The year is 2917;

 progressives and neolibs are still fighting about the 2016 primary

Neither of these groups will exist in 2917.

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Dr. Oz and wife thought they'd hung up — got caught raging against "f**king girl reporter"
https://www.salon.com/2021/12/29/dr-oz-and-wife-thought-theyd-hung-up--got-caught-raging-against-fking-girl-reporter/

This is months old; I was about to applaud some good news, at long last, for the Oz campaign.

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This may become a case where Fetterman's odds go up as the environment worsens for Democrats, since the possibility of this seat deciding control of the Senate is really the main thing buoying Oz. I don't see Pennsylvania voters preferring him over Fetterman on a personal level.

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At this point, Oz is probably the worst candidate for either party in any competitive race. Probably ahead of Perkins if we include the marginal races.

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I am probably going to end up donating $1000 to Fetterman this year along with Hassan, Warnock, CCM and Kelly.

I just want you to know that this is one of the most genuinely insane things I've ever read on this forum.

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Who ran a stronger campaign: John Fetterman or Matt Foldi?

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Just saw a Youtube pre-roll ad as I'm heading out the door this morning. 

Quote: "Dr. Oz will deliver results, not partisan rhetoric."

The first time I've seen Team Oz embracing an explicitly moderate angle. 

I think he figured it would be self-evident. Campaign has been a disaster. Heard whispers he regrets running.

[Senator Incitatus]

Just saw a Youtube pre-roll ad as I'm heading out the door this morning. 

Quote: "Dr. Oz will deliver results, not partisan rhetoric."

The first time I've seen Team Oz embracing an explicitly moderate angle. 

I think he figured it would be self-evident. Campaign has been a disaster. Heard whispers he regrets running.

Ain't that a recipe for success...

He has about a week to withdraw and be replaced on the ballot, if he really feels that way. I would commend it.

[Senator Incitatus]

Just saw a Youtube pre-roll ad as I'm heading out the door this morning.  

Quote: "Dr. Oz will deliver results, not partisan rhetoric."

The first time I've seen Team Oz embracing an explicitly moderate angle.  

I think he figured it would be self-evident. Campaign has been a disaster. Heard whispers he regrets running.

From where are you getting that? Are you involved in the GOP ground operation in PA?

That said, I wouldn't be totally surprised. Can't imagine him withdrawing though.

I have reliable sources, which I will keep private for my own confidentiality—they are not actually within the campaign. I also can't imagine he actually withdraws in the end, so it doesn't really matter if you believe me or not. His apathy seems pretty evident on the surface.

[Senator Incitatus]

Just saw a Youtube pre-roll ad as I'm heading out the door this morning. 

Quote: "Dr. Oz will deliver results, not partisan rhetoric."

The first time I've seen Team Oz embracing an explicitly moderate angle. 

I think he figured it would be self-evident. Campaign has been a disaster. Heard whispers he regrets running.

Ain't that a recipe for success...

He has about a week to withdraw and be replaced on the ballot, if he really feels that way. I would commend it.

If his heart isn't in the campaign, that's bound to harm the GOP's chances of winning it. I've never seen someone withdraw out of a high-profile Senate race like this after being nominated, but many "strange" things have happened in American politics over the past decade so...

It would be fairly similar to Torricelli's withdrawal in 2002, especially since both candidates are from New Jersey.

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Oh yeah. I forgot about that one. Still not last decade but it's fairly similar, you're right.

Also, ironically, Oz's campaign is reminiscent of Pete Dawkins's New Jersey campaign in 1988; under-running the fundamentals because you're a celebrity parachuted in with the support of the President (and shoving out a more electable black candidate to boot).