New PA Maps In Effect

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The new map could potentially be a four seat pick up for the Democrats in November.

The current map has 5 very vulnerable districts: 06, 07, 08, 15, 16.

Also, I still think that the Washington Post "nonpartisan" map is a slight Republican gerrymander; there is no reason for there to be only 1 Democratic District in the Pittsburgh area on a nonpartisan map.

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No, this is far from perfect. While these 3 Counties combined are just right for a Congressional District, combining these forces a different district to have an awful shape. To the North and East, Pike, Wayne, and Susquehanna Counties must then be put together, and then the District must be extended Southward and Westward in a way that creates a very awkward Horseshoe shape.

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Can someone post the current map with a reasonable map?

I see a fair map might make the state 9-9, what is it now?

A fair map would probably end up 8D-10R at best in a neutral year. Unfortunately there is a lot of Democrat self-packing in the cities.

Unless they do what Illinois did which was to unpack the city to mitigate the Democratic self-packing disadvantage (which is what they should do).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Would Cartwright be able to hold his seat if that dave wasserman non partisan map thingy turns out to be the new map?

The best district for Cartwright would be Luzurne + Lakwanna + Monroe, which is ~500 under the 2010 pop count. This seat still voted for Trump by two points less then the current PA-17, and has a CPVI a fraction more democratic then 0, rather then the current R+1. If this district doesn't come into being then there is something wrong.

Also Nate Cohn's map cuts Luzurne in favor of Pike and the Eastern counties, but we just heard from the court that such a cut may no longer be legal, so that map might be voided.

That is unfortunate. I would rather cut Luzurne to keep Pike, Wayne, Susquehanna, and Wyoming in PA-17. PA-10 being a Horseshoe shape is ugly.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Hypothetically, this map keeps deviation in Missouri under 500 per District, and only splits 2 Counties.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Hypothetically, this map keeps deviation in Missouri under 500 per District, and only splits 2 Counties.

Partisan composition?

5R-3D.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

Maybe Tom Wolf will cave in to the Republican Legislature.

Just like he did when he appointed Sally Mundy (R) to the State Supreme Court.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Unfortunately, Republicans are probably just going to throw Pat Meehan under the bus and call it a day, only netting Democrats 1 seat.

SC has to approve of the map.

Why are people forgetting there is a Democratic governor here?

Maybe Tom Wolf will cave in to the Republican Legislature.

Just like he did when he appointed Sally Mundy (R) to the State Supreme Court.

Wolf had to appoint a Republican. The legislature would have voted not to confirm a Democrat. Court picks need to be confirmed by the PA legislature.

How did they ever end up with 5 Dems?

2015 Elections

Also, why did Tom Wolf just give the seat away to the Republicans for free?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Assuming the maps are re-drawn, is the PA-18 Special election going to be held on the new lines or the old lines?

Old lines.

If the special were to be held under new lines, one person, one vote would have been violated.

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I forget the exact numbers but none of these 4 groups are more than a net total level of 500 people away from their combined quota.

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Since SCOTUS denied the stay, isn't that the end of it?  Or could they petition for a stay on some other grounds?

It's Pennsylvania Republicans, I'm sure next stop is The Hague

Before the stay they:

Denied precinct and voter data to the court -  this was a formality, they simply went to the dems. Hell, we use DRA which has similar, albeit old data. 

Called upon one and potentially two of the Dem judges to recuse themselves due to statements made during their judicial campaigns.

Generally called the court order illegal whenever possible.

With only ten days on the clock, one would think that they would refuse to pass any map, and instead dig in their heals and try to deny the court a sense of legitimacy.

They've really poisoned the well about possibility working with Democrats in the legislature, Governor Wolf and the Commonwealth Court. They could piss them off to the point where the court tells Professor Nathaniel Persily to draw a map that punishes the Republicans as much as possible while sticking to their original parameters.

Not going to happen.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ohio & Michigan next!

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There is apparently now an effort by Pennsylvania Republicans in the state legislature to impeach the 5 justices that ruled against the gerrymandered maps. Requires a majority in the state house and 2/3 in the state senate, which Republicans have if they all voted together.

Terrible.

This is very anti-democracy.

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Serious answer:

PA-18: No longer vulnerable (although the only reason it was every vulnerable to begin with was the special election)
PA-12: No longer safe
PA-17: Now less vulnerable
PA-16: No longer vulnerable
PA-07: Definite pickup
PA-15: Now more vulnerable
PA-08: More or less the same
PA-06: More or less the same
PA-11: No longer vulnerable

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Serious answer:

PA-18: No longer vulnerable (although the only reason it was every vulnerable to begin with was the special election)
PA-12: No longer safe
PA-17: Now less vulnerable
PA-16: No longer vulnerable
PA-07: Definite pickup
PA-15: Now more vulnerable
PA-08: More or less the same
PA-06: More or less the same
PA-11: No longer vulnerable

PA-6 could become a lean/likely D pickup if its new iteration is all of Chester plus Reading. It remains more or less the same if it's Chester+ part of Lancaster.

Based on the Compactness criteria set out by the court, having part of Lancaster is probably more likely.

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01, 02, 07, 13, and 14 are Safe D.

06, 08, 12, 15, and 17 are Competitive.

03, 04, 05, 09, 10, 11, 16, and 18 are Safe R.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

7 Clinton Districts in the Democratic Party map.

Definitely did not put effort into it.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

PA-05 and PA-11 would change more than anything else in a fair map.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I personally believe that given the choice, it is better to split 2 Counties once each, than 1 County twice. Of course this is irrelevant when we are dealing with cases such as Philadelphia where it has to be split twice.

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The 12/03 border there is dumb. Splits an extra unnecessary County.

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One would probably have to stretch a District from Centre County to Dauphin County to get a Competitive District in the Center of the State, and probably move Cumberland County in too.

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looks like they renumbered everything.