UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Yes, the latest brilliant Levido strategy.

All you need to know to understand Levido is that he learned everything from his father. A property lawyer from a country town who served as a local independent councillor for a dysfunctional rural shire. Elected as a reformist after the council was dismissed when an arts/entertainment centre budget blew out from $7 million to $66 million. Resigned after being criticised for contributing to a toxic and dysfunctional environment during a fight over water fluoridation.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just been struck by the observation that you can weave a few of this topics of discussion together: one drawback with relying on Australian political consultants is that for all the obvious cultural similarities between British and Australian politics, their electoral systems operate in a fundamentally different way in certain conditions as the combination of preferential voting and compulsory voting in Australia provides a cushion for large parties in deep trouble that does not exist in Britain. A degree of resilience and 'bounce' is a key feature of the Australian electoral system as a lot of unhappy supporters will turn up to vote because they'd rather not be fined and as a lot of (sometimes but not always) other unhappy supporters will cast their first preference for another party, but the vote will still count for their usual option all the same. Whereas here...

A uniquely Australian phenomenon with unhappy supporters is how meaningless a protest vote can be. They'll rock up ranting and raving about how awful you are, preference everyone else first to prove the point... and end with 14. Liberal 15. Labor or vice versa. As long as they can't bring themselves to actively vote for the other party their disgruntlement is irrelevant. And importantly many low info voters vote this way without realising they're still voting for you!

This also means (non-Queensland) Australian conservative operatives are conditioned to not give a fck about upsetting the base because their votes will never actually flow to Labor. This seems to be clashing with British political realities at the moment!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Just been struck by the observation that you can weave a few of this topics of discussion together: one drawback with relying on Australian political consultants is that for all the obvious cultural similarities between British and Australian politics, their electoral systems operate in a fundamentally different way

for example, Levido's basic introduction to politics was non-ideological unwarded rural shire councils, elected at-large with ~8 members by STV and a directly elected mayor. A uniquely unserious setup for local government that can literally only be found in large country towns in NSW and literally nowhere else on earth.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Hiding in the corner - A Network North Project!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Redirecting levelling up funding from Northern transport links, to flatter motorists in London?

Future political historians will have a *field day* with the political ramifications of the 2023 Uxbridge by-election.
https://twitter.com/transportgovuk/status/1737401590808543620

The sheer number of deleted tweets from official departmental accounts in this thread really speaks to the acumen of Tory PR advisors.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

With regards to the value of using the 1992 election as a historical precedent for a Tory turnaround, it might be useful to point out that between John Major becoming Prime Minister in 1990 and the 1992 general election, the Conservatives never trailed Labour by more than 10 points in any poll; while the exact opposite of that has been true for Rishi Sunak.

What’s more, even at the depths of 1990 between the Poll Tax riots and Maggie’s defenestration, the Tory vote never bottomed out remotely as far. In the week after the Mid Staffs by-election the worst polls of the term came in with a 28% vote share (what the Tories are currently polling at!) and a 28% lead (a full 10 points short of Truss’s resignation week polls).
Oh and not to mention, after Thatcher’s resignation, every single poll conducted in the next 4 weeks had a Tory lead! About 2/5ths of all polls during Major’s first term would show a Tory lead! Contrast with Rishi who has recorded… zero polls with a Labour lead in single digits in 14 months.
But no, clearly the hedge fund manager with a net worth of half a billion pounds is perfectly suited to emulate the success of the humble grey man from Brixton.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Life imitates art.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

all he did was write an (ignored) briefing paper... A waste of valuable time - sure.

What an apt summation of Gove’s career in general.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Maybe the problem with William is that is just not much there. At least Harry has a personality. He has character. William is just.... blah. Boring, no personality, no real interests, nothing.

Charles can be quirky but there is depth to him.

To go on a tangent about cars, the worst thing a car can do is be boring.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

One of the last vestiges of British imperialism is a steadfast refusal to recognise our own impotence & irrelevance.

Exemplified by thinking the main constraint on Britain taking action in Israel is the dismal state of the British military, rather than really being constrained by the “special relationship” necessitating Britain toe the American line for better or worse.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

One of the last vestiges of British imperialism is a steadfast refusal to recognise our own impotence & irrelevance.

Exemplified by thinking the main constraint on Britain taking action in Israel is the dismal state of the British military, rather than really being constrained by the “special relationship” necessitating Britain toe the American line for better or worse.

You’ve misunderstood me I think.

Actually I meant to quote Wiswylfen rather than yourself (oops), as he seems to more prescribe to that outdated view of Britain’s power and influence. Totally in agreement with you.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

May giving her local paper, the Maidenhead Advertiser, the chance to break the story, rather than one of the nationals was quite nice.

It seems like there’s already briefing against her in the party - from those who think she timed it to distract from the budget, or as some sort of veiled criticism of Hunt’s performance. Tbh, I think they’re just worried people will take it as another sign of a spring election.

She has been pretty consistent about wanting to stay in the role until now - wonder if something’s changed behind the scenes, or if she’s just had a serious think about being in opposition next year.

If Maidenhead *is* vulnerable, I’d expect she’d know it before most others - she does seem to have made a habit of pretty frequent canvassing, even as the seat went from marginal to safe. I remember an interview with one of her chiefs of staff, who suggested May used Maidenhead doorsteps as a sort of focus group, which could have an oversized impact on her thinking at times.

It has been suggested the opposite is true - she thinks a May election is unlikely, and if she is correct announcing it now gives the local party the best opportunity to pick a successor.

I wonder who Seb Payne will lose to this time!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Spectacular own goal by Kensington Palace. The AP official retracting a story is about as Streisand effect as it gets.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Nick Robinson before her was also rather right-wing too, wasn’t he? Though I don’t remember his bias shining through as much as LK’s does.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

At this rate would Keir be the first Labour PM to have less trouble with the Lords than the preceding Tory government had? Between Brexit, Norn Ireland, Rwanda, that River Pollution thing they’ve had plenty of problems.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The genius of Cummings’ and Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” slogan wasn’t in its appeal to hardcore Brexiteers (most of whom were fully behind the Tories by the end of 2019), but rather in its appeal to a huge swathe of the country, Leaver and Remainer alike, who were absolutely sick of the issue and never wanted to hear about it again. When you think about it, it wasn’t exactly a positive endorsement of the policy.

Despite Starmer’s obvious deep aversion to Brexit, Labour can clearly see there’s absolutely no point in dredging up the issue. If the Tories want to do so then that’s their prerogative, but it would be a textbook definition of fighting the last war.

Yes, but right now they’re losing the next war disastrous, pulling up the old gimmicks can at least limit the loss.

If I was the conservatives, I would:

1: Replace Sunak* and hold an election fast, before the new leader’s skeletons came out of the closet.
2: Focus on promising to keep UK out of the EU, promises new tax cuts, stopping immigration etc.

The point is no longer to win, but to avoid being decimated.

*People says that Sunak is the least bad option, but I think people ignore the racist vote. A reason in my opinion  why the Conservatives can’t get votes back from Reform, is likely because Sunak is South Asian. Yes, I know the British says no one cares about Sunak’s color because he’s upper class, but
I don’t believe it. I think no one says it out loud, because it’s socially unacceptable to say it.

Another leadership farce and doubling down on issues the voters are loudly refusing to care about during a cost of living crisis? And you think that'll improve the situation?
...on the other hand this is basically what happened with Gillard/Rudd so maybe the Australian advisors will take the inspiration and run with it.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The genius of Cummings’ and Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” slogan wasn’t in its appeal to hardcore Brexiteers (most of whom were fully behind the Tories by the end of 2019), but rather in its appeal to a huge swathe of the country, Leaver and Remainer alike, who were absolutely sick of the issue and never wanted to hear about it again. When you think about it, it wasn’t exactly a positive endorsement of the policy.

Despite Starmer’s obvious deep aversion to Brexit, Labour can clearly see there’s absolutely no point in dredging up the issue. If the Tories want to do so then that’s their prerogative, but it would be a textbook definition of fighting the last war.

Yes, but right now they’re losing the next war disastrous, pulling up the old gimmicks can at least limit the loss.

If I was the conservatives, I would:

1: Replace Sunak* and hold an election fast, before the new leader’s skeletons came out of the closet.
2: Focus on promising to keep UK out of the EU, promises new tax cuts, stopping immigration etc.

The point is no longer to win, but to avoid being decimated.

*People says that Sunak is the least bad option, but I think people ignore the racist vote. A reason in my opinion  why the Conservatives can’t get votes back from Reform, is likely because Sunak is South Asian. Yes, I know the British says no one cares about Sunak’s color because he’s upper class, but
I don’t believe it. I think no one says it out loud, because it’s socially unacceptable to say it.

Another leadership farce and doubling down on issues the voters are loudly refusing to care about during a cost of living crisis? And you think that'll improve the situation?
...on the other hand this is basically what happened with Gillard/Rudd so maybe the Australian advisors will take the inspiration and run with it.

If Johnson was still in parliament I'm almost certain the tory party would have to do a kevin rudd reinstallation through gritted teeth to save the furniture, even though they hate Boris even more than the faceless men hated Rudd. A lot of parallels tbh (although rudd is obviously a better person than Boris).

The men in grey suits honestly still haven’t approached the level of vitriol Rudd got. Boris is still one of them, an old Etonian Oxford boy, just putting on a different act. Kevin was a Queensland (!) farm boy from a Country Party family, a Goss acolyte who strode in, double crossed Beasley and fcked over the Victorian branch, then quickly betrayed the NSW branch too. And most importantly of all, he was *never* a trade union member. No working class roots, no trade union activism, nothing. An academic obsessed with China, flipped a dalliance with diplomacy into Goss’s technocratic inner circle, then lucked into preselection.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/TUVonline/status/1776526536134279202

Nightmare blunt rotation.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

“Ryanair CEO Will ‘Happily’ Offer Rwanda Deportation Flights” is an incredible headline.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Didn’t Therese Coffey also expend her energy eradicating the Oxford comma during her brief time as Health Secretary? Reed-Mogg also had bizarre grammatical rules though he would do.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Apparently, this happened:



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhuZOzQNXak

Same energy