Australia General Discussion 4.0: It ain’t easy under Albanese

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Someone is going to get hurt in 2025. Someone may even be killed.

Most likely by the people who went to the Sydney Opera House and chanted “gas the Jews”.

And that goes to show how little you know of Australia

Indeed. Australia is a country where the most right wing Prime Minister it has ever had was able to address a crowd of gun nuts and tell them what a load of idiots they were and then subsequently pass legalisation that severely cracked down on guns. It is not the United States.

and the loudest and most universal criticism of that speech wasn't its contents, but his decision to wear a (very conspicuous) bulletproof vest! Howard even called it one of the biggest mistakes of his Premiership!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

WA Nationals state MP for North West Central, Merome Beard, has defected to the Liberal party in yet another WA Coalition farce. Regardless of what's said publicly, I strongly suspect this is all to do with her seat being torn apart in the upcoming state redistribution.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The first round of suggestions for the NSW federal redistribution have also been released. Usual mix of parochialists and crackpots in personal submissions, meanwhile the three party submissions are as hilariously blatant as they always are in NSW.

Labor's proposal is as direct as ever. Dai Le's seat is split in four directions (lmao) being most blatant. On the two party front they've proposed some new tricks this time. Down in the shire they obviously push Cook back south across the Georges, but their new trick is Banks crossing to take in the Menai, abolishing and merging with Hughes very cleanly. This helpfully allows all the Illawarra/South Coast to shuffle up, shoring up Eden-Monaro. On the north side they choose not to abolish a seat, instead shuffling everything west to their liking. Bennelong is pushed west into more favourable territory which pushes Parramatta into rock solid status. By pushing most of the gains through Bradfield, Berowra takes most of the Hawkesbury, finally shoring up Macquarie (on horrendous boundaries that split Penrith in half). Hume gets pushed well into Macarthur though not as much as they've past suggested. Total sum is 1 Liberal abolished, every marginal Labor seat would be comfortable even on 2019 figures.

The Liberals don't butcher the teals as much as I expected, seems they've got bigger fish to fry. Only North Sydney is cleanly abolished, which will flip Bennelong at the cost of strong teal bases in both it and Bradfield. This allows for a new electorate of Reibey based on the Hawkesbury. Parramatta is abandoned on very similar borders to Labor to allow it. Greenway is somewhat weakened on the off chance 2019 numbers come back. By abolishing Blaxland in the Inner West Reid is also totally abandoned, and Barton is further shored up too. This is all to keep Cook, Banks and Hughes on relatively comfortable (undersizes) boundaries. A new seat of Bird Walton is centred on the south west, clearly inspired by Badgery's Creek state electorate. In the country Macquarie is merged with Calare which would be a shtshow for all involved (local independent, Nationals, Labor). Paterson also loses the river towns to give a fighting shot back.

The Nationals blindly butcher Sydney in the sole pursuit of maintaining country seats, cleanly abolishing Albo's seat of Grayndler in the process just for a laugh.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

NSW Liberals have finally settled on a replacement for Marise Payne in the Senate, former member for Wentworth Dave Sharma beat former State Transport Minister Andrew Constance 251-206 in an upset. While they're both moderates, Constance had the support of Dutton (after Seselja's flop) and moderate powerbrokers. It looks like Sharma won based off strong speeches on the Israel-Gaza conflict, as a devout Jew with close links to the Eastern Suburbs Synagogues.

In other news, tonight's newspoll has been released at 50-50. Detainee Release looks to have hurt Albo. Albo's approval rating has also fallen to 40/53, the same as ScoMo's on election day 2022. Labor may be about to panic and do something stupid...

[AustralianSwingVoter]

the same as ScoMo's on election day 2019

When he won?

Woops, edited

The prime cause for the weakness this week looks to be the High Court striking down indefinite immigration detention. Thanks to extremely terrible legal advice that they'd win the case, Labor was totally unprepared for the verdict and has now had to release 93 serious criminals. Crimes that landed the men in indefinite detention include murder, rape, child sex abuse, drug smuggling and terrorism concerns. And now these men have been released!
The case is NZYQ v. Minister for Immigration et al, with NZYQ being a Royhinga man convicted for the rape of a 10 year old boy, who was found by psychologists to have a severe risk of reoffending and no remorse for his crime.

All in all just about the worst possible story for Labor! And now they're going to work with Dutton to make a bipartisan solution to the ruling.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

political mastermind… Tony Abbott

Lmfao

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Member for Dunkley Peta Murphy has died after a long fight with cancer, triggering a by-election for her semi-marginal seat in Melbourne’s southeast.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has resigned after being embroiled in a scandal over shares she secretly owned in the mining company South32. While her holdings are worth less than $2,500, they seem to have influenced her efforts to shut down investigations into the impact of manganese contamination on the health of the local aboriginal community.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The left can mostly live without culture wars most of the time, but the modern right cannot.

Though in Australia (and New Zealand/Canada) the conservative culture wars are somewhat different than in Europe, as a major target group are conservative immigrants.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

[AustralianSwingVoter]

After rocky months after defections sent him into minority government, Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff will tomorrow be calling an early election after failing to reach agreement with the defected ex-Liberals. Based on the scarce polling and general vibes, a Labor-Greens government is looking like the odds on favourite result.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

After rocky months after defections sent him into minority government, Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff will tomorrow be calling an early election after failing to reach agreement with the defected ex-Liberals. Based on the scarce polling and general vibes, a Labor-Greens government is looking like the odds on favourite result.

It’s really hard to say. The collapse in the Liberal vote and adding 2 seats to every constituency makes it very hard to see how the Liberals could get a majority. Still, Labor and the Greens are only a little above 40% and there will presumably be some independents (ex-Labor in Clark, potential for ex-Lib among others elsewhere). There’s also the Lambie factor, as she got 20% in the most recent (and only) poll that specifically mentioned her party. She will get less than that in an actual election, but there looks to be a decently large constituency of people unhappy with both the state and federal governments and they lack many other options at the state level.

Lambie is the loudest anti-stadium voice in Tassie politics. Given the govt lost its majority because of the stadium, has been forced to an early election because of the stadium and will likely make the new stadium/AFL team a core part of the election campaign, Lambie will all but certainly back a Labor govt if in the position. Her constant fighting with state and federal Liberals only reinforces that.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tasmania is the last state in Australia currently controlled by the right, so their losing it would be a significant and even historic moment. Have there ever been "clean sweeps" of this sort before (ie the same tendency in power both nationally and in all states) even if only briefly?

Between 2002 and 2008 every Premier was Labor, and from 2007-2008 so was the PM. And from 1969 to 1970 every Premier and the PM were from the coalition

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/1762616093208924302

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This seat was securely Liberal not that long ago, which makes it an even better result for the ALP.

In fairness the seat before the 2019 redistribution was located further south - it flipped Labor in 2019 after exchanging rich exurbia in Mornington for working-class suburbia in areas around Carrum.

Also cannot be forgotten just how popular a local MP Bruce Billson was for 20 years. Much like Anna Burke in Chisholm, a strong local member can lock down a seat through very rough elections.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/1762616093208924302

Didn't an Mp in the 80s randomly come to parliament drrssed as a chicken and never explained why?

No he explained why perfectly. A friend dared him to.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Paul Keating has continued his spiral of CCP hackery, lashing out both at Penny Wong, for thinking China is a threat to ASEAN, and a broadside at the ASIO chief for daring to suggest that a Chinese spy in Parliament is a threat to Australia. Albo and the whole cabinet are all coming out to defend her unusually strongly for an intra party spat.

In short, Keating is going full Gerhard Schröder. Peak comedy.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://amp.theage.com.au/national/victoria/guy-silence-on-freemasons-membership-raises-conflict-questions-20240227-p5f83k.html

In other news, it turns out Matthew Guy is an honest to god Freemason. The Victorian Liberal party outdoes itself yet again. There is but one thing to say: How could Dan Andrews let this happen!!!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The LNP has had a very strong performance across the Queensland local elections and by-elections. They look to have gained Ipswich West on a 17% swing, and have a monster 22% in Palaszczuk's uber safe seat of Inala. The Brisbane Liberals have also had a very strong night, keeping their strong grip on the Lord Mayor's office and the council chamber. All in all extremely foreboding results for Steven Miles and state Labor, with the state election only 7 months away.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labor has gained the South Australian seat of Dunstan, vacated by ex-Premier Steven Marshall. Yet another failure for Adelaide Liberals.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I don’t know if the old truism about independents will really apply to Teals though. They are incredibly ideologically fixed and don’t have that local pragmatism. We’ve also seen at the NSW and Victorian state elections that both parties are quickly adapting to fighting them off.

I’d bet that when the Coalition sweeps back into power (which ain’t happening under Dutton, let’s be real) all the teals will be swept up and tied to their track record of ideological stances that diametrically oppose their electorates. And for all the talk a grand ideological shift - as a voter in a teal seat there was only one issue that worked. Climate. Once the Federal Coalition gets over the climate debate the teals lose their purpose.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I don’t know if the old truism about independents will really apply to Teals though. They are incredibly ideologically fixed and don’t have that local pragmatism. We’ve also seen at the NSW and Victorian state elections that both parties are quickly adapting to fighting them off.

I’d bet that when the Coalition sweeps back into power (which ain’t happening under Dutton, let’s be real) all the teals will be swept up and tied to their track record of ideological stances that diametrically oppose their electorates. And for all the talk a grand ideological shift - as a voter in a teal seat there was only one issue that worked. Climate. Once the Federal Coalition gets over the climate debate the teals lose their purpose.

Yes, but when will that actually happen?  If anything, climate change denial seems to be becoming *more* popular amongst much of the right rather than less.

The problem is really just with Queensland voters still. Far too many overly pro-coal voters in marginal seats. And as Shorten proved, looking two-faced on the climate issue is toxic to everyone. Queensland Labor is really struggling with the dilemma too, it’s the driver behind the Brisbane greens growth.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tammy Tyrell has left the Jacqui Lambie Network. Hilariously predictable, just like every other one man personality party.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

It’s especially ironic given how Murdoch’s trying to make Alice Springs a convenient national scandal (in spite of his papers downplaying it before the election, not to mention the pretty shameless coverage of Don Dale). You’d think they’d want an Alice Springs local front and centre. Aboriginal. Literally the former Deputy Mayor. Speaking on something she actually has a lot of experience with (for once).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The right-wing outrage machine pounds on. The choice of outrage this time?

F**king biscuit tins.

Pretty typical bad PR management by Woolies. Here in Sydney they’re already under fire for refusing to stock Norco milk anymore. Sure almost nobody buys the bloody tins but taking them off the shelves is begging for a public backlash.