USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

I guess when those people were declaring "I'm leaving New York!" they actually meant leaving Manhattan for Westchester or LI.

Or barely anyone other than a few self-important pundits actually left cities?

Anyway, this is good but CA losing while so many other places don't is just disgusting.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Ok, what the hell happened with Arizona? Waiting for someone to ask but it's not like they're answering anyway

Vacation homes vs permanent residents+immigrant undercount?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

I don't know but I get the feeling that Boise and SLC are the metros to watch this decade. Whether it shows up in apportionment by 2030 is beyond my guess.

Correct. 10-year projections are a crapshoot but growth in the inner Mountain West (Idaho to 3, Utah and Nevada to 5, Arizona to 10) all looks probable for 2030.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

VA not having gained anything since 1990 is honestly astonishing to me.

Blame southern and southwestern VA. Internally, chunks of seats get redistributed upward to NOVA each cycle.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Haven’t seen anyone yet commented on how California was so close of losing a second seat as well.

California is always close to both losing and gaining a seat just by how the formula treats a state this large and how such a massive percentage of all 435 seats are Californian in the first place. The TL;DR is that CA is right where it was thought to be.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Just four states are responsible for 50% of all 2010-2020 population growth:
Texas: +3,999,944
Florida: +2,736,877
California: +2,284,267
Georgia: +1,024,255

Seven more bring it past 75%:
Washington: +980,741
North Carolina: +903,905
New York: +823,147
Arizona: +759,485
Colorado: +744,518
Virginia: +630,369
Tennessee: +564,735

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

NORTH CAROLINA UNDERPERFORMANCE: 10,439,388 (Projected to be 10,576,099)

100k people gone!

I’m calling it. NC will surpass GA in population.

I'm sorry Vern, looks like we both were wrong.

I an shock. I bet we lost more in the Mtns than I realized.

I doubt it. Seems like Charlotte and the Triangle are just growing a couple points slower than Atlanta.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Ten largest states, ranked (change since 2010)

1. california
2. texas
3. florida (+1)
4. new york (-1)
5. pennsylvania (+1)
6. illinois (-1)
7. ohio
8. georgia (+1)
9. north carolina (+1)
10. michigan (-2)

Bottom ten

50. wyoming
49. vermont
48. alaska (-1)
47. north dakota (+1)
46. south dakota
45. delaware
44. montana
43. rhode island
42. maine (-1)
41. new hampshire (+1)
40. hawaii

DC would be 49/51, up from 50/51

New to the one million club
Montana (1.08 mil)
next up: Delaware (10K away)

New to the ten million club
Georgia (10.7mil)
North Carolina (10.5mil)
Michigan (10.1mil)
next up: New Jersey (800k away)

That means Biden and Trump each won 5 of the bottom 10 states. So much for muh Senate bias.

The election wasn't 50-50, but each candidate won 25 states. That's biased.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

some GOP congressman in rural NY is going to lose their seat anyways. 

Yeah but getting to 27 could add a Dem seat in NYC in addition to dropping a GOP seat and get rid of Emmer/Fischbach at the same time. Even better!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Wait a damn minute, South Carolina could have lost a seat? All the time people in the state brag about having some of the fastest growing areas (Horry, Charleston, Greenville) and we could’ve lost one?

Well, your state is extremely rural. Honestly, I think this could be a factor that works against SC/GA/NC/TN going forward. Even if the cities keep booming, I'd be completely unsurprised to see rural populations converge towards 10-15%. That's equivalent to ~10% of SC's population disappearing--which would require a whole lot of growth in the cities to make up.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

One sixth trend I'd add.

"Nice rural areas" are doing just fine. The parts of rural America with 1) decent metropolitan connectivity and 2) nice outdoor amenities grew, sometimes by a lot. Look at the Willamette Valley, Central Oregon, Idaho/Wyoming/Montana, the Colorado Rockies, Tahoe, Hill Country, Middle/Eastern TN, Charlottesville->Roanoke, Coastal Carolina and Georgia, Western Michigan, the Ozarks, the Black Hills, Wisconsin/Minnesota, Bluegrass Country, South Central PA, and Northern New England.

The geographically blessed corners of rural America have a bright future. It's the vast nondescript areas in between that are declining--which is obviously the larger land area.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

New York City gained 629,057 people. New York State gained 823,147 people, so 76% of the state's growth occurred in the city.

44% of NY state residents now live in New York City.

Can we retire the death of the American city meme already?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Seems like Dems now have a golden opportunity to gerrymander the hell out of NY.

When they do, where do Long and Staten Island Republicans go? Upstate NY? Florida?

Why would they go anywhere?  They are already the minority in state politics.

Why would they stay where their views are not represented? They'll move to FL or maybe PA

Why would anyone live in any congressional district not represented by their preferred party? Who are the 40% of people in any 60-40 congressional district and why haven't they left?