2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Biden is actually up to +10.5 in New Mexico now. Would think that bodes well for AZ.

Tbh I'm surprised considering what happened with Tejanos.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Biden is actually up to +10.5 in New Mexico now. Would think that bodes well for AZ.

Tbh I'm surprised considering what happened with Tejanos.

As I've written above - the RGV seems to have improved as more returns have come in. The trends are definitely still there but much less marked. It isn't close at all in Cuellar's race.

Yeah. Vicente Gonzalez's is weird though. Could be because his district is less urban RGV and more rural RGV. There could be a serious divergence between McAllen/Laredo/Harlingen/Brownsville and the adjacent rural counties.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324425447548047361?s=20

Good to know! Thanks!!!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Cobb apparently had a few more ballots that weren't in the original estimates and that netted Biden a hundred or so. Trump lead in GA now down to 13,220. 50K outstanding.

Numbers look bad for Trump.

At that rate even 65% of the outstanding ballots going to Biden would be enough for him to win, and thus far the late returns have been notably more favorable to him than that.

Even now with no Fulton?

mail-ins even in freaking Forsyth County were upwards of 60% Biden. I think he can make it.

COAL MOUNTAIN JOE

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I am now fully convinced that the Dems need to completely divorce themselves from the woke academic language and distance themselves from activists that push it. I felt this way earlier but was reluctant to say it. It doesn't help us politically with the average minority voter who do not experience race in those terms nor with the moderate/conservative white voters. It seems to exist solely for elite spaces for white liberals and elite minorities.

One good thing about both Biden and Sanders was that they stayed away from that stuff although some others in the primaries like Gillibrand and Castro dabbled in it. We need to make sure that the same happens going forward as well. Anyone who use the term "intersectionality" or "latinx" should not be nominated for the Democrats up or down the ballot.

Biden did not lose Florida because of woke language
He lost because Trump had conviced a lot of Cuban and Venezuelan Americans that he was communist who supported socialist

you can pick the most anti woke Dem of all time and it wont matter in the end if they are still successfully branded as socialist or communist in places like Florida

remember if you can convince voters that Joe biden of all people is a socialist
than you can do that to any Dem no matter how anti woke they are....

But given that Republicans literally always seek to paint the Democratic nominee as a Castro friendly socialist toddler, right back through Hillary, Obama, Carrie, Gore, Etc. Why on Earth did it work so very well this time? Especially against a candidate like Biden who would be about as difficult to Tar as a wild-eyed radical as a candidate can be?

Myona extremely uninformed hypothesis is a combination of the growing Venezuelan vote. Their having personally dealt with Chavez and Maduro only within the last decade I'm guessing would make them far more susceptible to Republicans waving the red flag. Additionally, although I was very much under the impression that most Cuban Americans outside the true Old Guard supported Obama's attempts to reopen contact with the island through easing travel restrictions, Etc. I guess not, and they actually like Trump's reversal of such policies which made it harder to send money to and visit relatives on the island?

It might have been partially a name recognition thing, combined with a very good outreach operation in Spanish language media that Dems just had no hope of ever beating.
Trump, for better or worse, had a clear name recognition advantage, and this would be magnified in a relatively insular community like the Cubanos.

I wish it were that simple. I can't believe for a second that Joe Biden didn't have sufficient name recognition compared to say Obama in 2008 or even John Kerry in 2004 , both of whom did rather well in Miami.

Likewise, I'd love to say it was a problem Limited merely to Cuban / Venezuelan voters in Miami-Dade, but the abysmal results out of South Texas say otherwise

The weird thing about Miami is the swing really does seem concentrated in the Cuban neighborhoods. So far as I can tell, Biden did fine in Kendall/South Miami/Homestead.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Ugh, all this whining from Spanberger. Why are so many people in the Democratic caucus so lame?

Because bad messaging from Dems in safe blue seats is actively hurting her. Her (and DMP's) complaints are completely reasonable.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But all these Democrats like Omar and AOC and Sanders who intentionally court media coverage have and it's hurting everyone else. They should know better.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

If you want to talk about crappy results, talk about how much Omar is lagging Biden in her district. Spanberger is doing comparatively much better. Her district is just so much closer to start with (but she's winning it anyway.)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyway, I don't think it's too much to ask house Democrats to blacklist the words "socialism", "defund", and "abolish." It isn't helping anyone.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

Or else what? None of them are vulnerable, their bases are too strong to be primaries and they're in safe seats.

Screw them over on committee assignments?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I mean I’m glad Spanberger hung on but girl like.... complaining about a BLM attack ad against you and blaming leadership? It’s called a campaign. Learn to run one better next time so you can fight off these attacks.

She's right though.

"Defund the police" sounds really bad.

Cool. No one in the Democratic leadership ever said to defund the police. So, again, Spanberger should be able to run her own campaign without blaming others for nearly losing.

But Rashida Tlaib and AOC were all about defunding and their words were used against DMP and Spanberger

Awesome. Maybe Spanberger should complain about them then? But to be honest, she really should take responsibility for her own election results. Stop scapegoating others for your own crappy results.

Spanberger is saying that the leadership should have put its foot down and tell Rashida Tlaib and AOC to knock it off, or else...

LOL Yeah let's muzzle the best rising star in the Democratic Party and pulverize youth turnout.

Deflecting blame is pathetic. Put forward a vision instead of handing Trump and the GOP the narrative.

The best rising star? Kamala Harris?

Anyway, we are putting forward a vision. They just suck up all the oxygen in the room. And for the record, I think kicking them out of the caucus is a bridge too far but asking people to change their messaging is fine. Don't identify as a democratic socialist. It doesn't actually accomplish anything and distracts voters from real messaging. Don't use the phrases "abolish" and "defund" when you're really talking about reforming flawed but not unpopular institutions. Push left behind the scenes if you like but always pretend to be more moderate than you actually are.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Btw does anyone know did the " squad members" do compared to Biden in their district(so far?). This can tell us if they actually have alot of appeal or not

Omar is running about 15 points behind Biden.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Holy crap is Arizona done!?!?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Secret Service and FAA know who the next POTUS is:

https://twitter.com/SenWhitehouse/status/1324431035606700033?s=20

President-elect Joe Biden. God, I love that.

Do you really? Or do you just like that the democrats will be back in the white house?

Most democrats I know, all agree that Biden is an awful candidate on the basis that after 47 years he's still achieved nothing in politics, is likely taking corrupt money from foreign governments and changes his positions on core policies to suit the mood.

I like Biden for Biden.  He's a class act, a decent man, a "good" politician, willing to work across the aisle, recognizes the power of bipartisanship, and has a strong desire to restore decency and respect to the Oval Office.

Your guy is the most horrid person ever to be president of this country.

Fair enough. I respect your opinion.

Out of genuine curiosity - do you have any curiosity or wonderment for Hunter Biden and James Biden having a track record over decades for coincidentally earnings contracts in countries where Joe Biden had responsibility for U.S foreign policy, despite both James and Hunter having no experience in those industries and no experience doing business in those countries?

Yeah because Ivanka Trump is totally qualified to go abroad and represent the US at official events.

With all due respect, it does raise eyebrows when you answer a question by completely avoiding the question and deflecting to issues about the Trump family.

The Trump family's issues are well documented. Everyone knows about them and to some extent I agree with you.

But I'm genuinely curious what you think about James and Hunter Biden's business dealings in countries where Joe Biden had responsibility for U.S. foreign policy.

To answer this as a Biden lover, I don't think Joe had anything to do with it I wouldn't call it corruption--although I do find Hunter's actions distasteful. I think Hunter actively used his name to get good jobs and contracts but I don't think there was ever a quid-pro-quo going on.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1324469384035864577

The difference between rural Appalachia (swing towards Biden), the rest of the rural South/East (swing towards Trump), and the Great Plains (swing towards Biden) is really interesting.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

AZ SoS says late ballot drop offs trend heavily D.

Told you all THREE DAYS AGO. AZ would start out heavy Dem favoring, push GOP favoring, and then end mildly Dem favoring. This shouldn't be a surprise.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Trump will win in 2024 if he somehow doesn't win in 2020. Biden will be next Carter.

Stop spamming, ffs.

There's this really cool button at the top right of each post. It's called "ignore." In SN's case, I strongly recommend you take advantage.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Trump will win imo.

Can you briefly stop posting or something? It is really annoying. Saying Trump is going to win 10 times in slightly different forms gets tedious.

Trump will win GA AZ. SC rules on PA.

I want to be on what you’re on. Where did you buy?

Well at least weed has been legalized by referendum in several states.

And everything else is decriminalized in Oregon. Come west and pick up a couple grams of whatever will keep ya going 'til 2024!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Trump will win imo.

Can you briefly stop posting or something? It is really annoying. Saying Trump is going to win 10 times in slightly different forms gets tedious.

Trump will win GA AZ. SC rules on PA.

Funny thing, when CA and NY are finally all in, Biden will have a larger share of the vote then Reagan in 80.
And that was allegedly a mandate that hasn’t ended 40 years later.

And perhaps a bigger share of Americans will have voted for Biden than any president ever.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Fox is dumfounded that Biden could get more votes out of Philly than Obama. Only explanation possible must be fraud.

In fairness, it's pretty reasonable for any logical person to wonder how Biden got more votes than Obama anywhere across the country. He's one of the least inspiring politicians of the last few decades to run for president.

But when you consider the hatred against Trump, at least part of Biden's vote count can be explained in some sort of logical way.

True but it raises a lot of questions.

Like how population growth works?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Cumberland County dumped....Biden only lost here by 10. Pretty impressive.

It's trending Democratic. If I'm correct there is a spillover of government workers from Harrisburg moving there.

Which would be pretty rare for Pennsylvania as of late, correct? (A Republican county trending Democratic -- only Chester comes to mind in that regard).  

Lancaster and Berks too, I think. South-Central PA seems to be inching leftward. Although calling Chester Republican at this point is pretty bold!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Cumberland County dumped....Biden only lost here by 10. Pretty impressive.

It's trending Democratic. If I'm correct there is a spillover of government workers from Harrisburg moving there.

Which would be pretty rare for Pennsylvania as of late, correct? (A Republican county trending Democratic -- only Chester comes to mind in that regard).  

Lancaster and Berks too, I think. South-Central PA seems to be inching leftward. Although calling Chester Republican at this point is pretty bold!

Berks isn't trending D it went from Romney +1 to Trump +10, probably gonna shift with the state this year.

I stand corrected.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Arizona
https://twitter.com/razingarizona/status/1324489129468456961?s=20

24% (-12%/+12%) swing with respect to the previous margins.
Would be in line with a very narrow Trump victory, according to the table I posted some 20 pages ago.

Better hope those later drops from Maricopa really are more Dem.

Calling Maricopa lean R this election is disingenuous, it’s a Tossup.

Maricopa definitely goes for Biden at this point tbh. If Trump wins AZ, Biden still likely gets ~50.5% in Maricopa.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Imagine thinking Western Civilization is about anything but liberalism lmao.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hmmm could be trouble in Arizona?

What is with Dem bedwetters on this site?

I think I've been highly optimistic basically everywhere since the polls closed but the figures in Arizona surely mean Biden taking the state is no certainty.

Biden will win Arizona.

I'm yet to see a convincing argument for why the Maricopa ballots still out won't continue trending Trump. Do we know these are not later arriving ballots (Monday, Tuesday) which so far have Trump on track?

Two things:
1. Some are late absentees which apparently skew Dem.
2. Evidently Gallego's (very Democratic) district is underreporting.