Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Stac[e]y Abrams, a rising Democratic star who lost the Georgia governor’s race in 2018, has also come up in conversations, the sources say, though not as much as some of the others.

Very unfair!

Adam, why do you think Abrams would be the best choice? While she would undoubtedly bring some desperately needed enthusiasm to the campaign, IDK if people will trust her experience enough to be VP considering Biden is pushing 80.

She's the only black candidate in the 21st century besides Barack Obama who has shown an ability to elevate turnout and support among black voters above/beyond the very predictable 89-92% D support and [BVAP 5-7 points lower than WVAP] turnout. Literally the only reason for picking Harris is rooted in one or more variants of "she's a black woman - she'll turn out the black vote!" (whether people own up to it explicitly, or want to use some variant of "she's articulate!", "she's professional", or any other number of tropes designated for black people who don't fulfill negative stereotypes). Do keep in mind that almost every single black statewide candidate across the nation has generated the exact amount of support and turnout as non-black statewide candidates over the past 20 years. People need to abandon the tropes.

Harris hasn't demonstrated any capacity to elevate black turnout or support in her own races. She barely won her first statewide race, and ran against a fellow Democrat, loser and serial dabber in 2016 - big whoop.

Abrams also doesn't have any preexisting issues with any aspect of the Democratic base, unlike Harris. She's younger, more dynamic and a better speaker if you're looking at ability to persuade or entertain (Harris is basically the black female equivalent of Buttigieg when you get down to brass tacks; stiff, boring, wants people to project their beliefs onto her rather than the other way around).

Let's be real: everybody - from Biden and the DNC, all the way down to random voters - wants a black female VP specifically for the electoral benefits. Harris has no history of showing she can deliver. A half-Indian, half-Jamaican non-ADOS descendant not being the best choice for this task in the United States of America shouldn't be all that surprising to people who aren't wrapped up in thinking black voters are a monolith and will just respond with enthusiasm regardless of the face so long as there's enough melanin. Abrams is a far better pick along the lines of why people are considering Harris in the first place.

Personally, I have many criticisms of Abrams as a candidate in the gubernatorial election of 2018, but in a national race, nah: she's the best choice if you're looking to mobilize black voters in a post-Obama world.

I'm skeptical a lot of these supposed Abrams benefits with AAs would show up outside of Georgia. Abrams had a very high profile and ran a very good campaign inside GA, but is her 2018 strength repeatable in Detroit or Philadelphia? I'm not so sure.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Stac[e]y Abrams, a rising Democratic star who lost the Georgia governor’s race in 2018, has also come up in conversations, the sources say, though not as much as some of the others.

Very unfair!

Adam, why do you think Abrams would be the best choice? While she would undoubtedly bring some desperately needed enthusiasm to the campaign, IDK if people will trust her experience enough to be VP considering Biden is pushing 80.

She's the only black candidate in the 21st century besides Barack Obama who has shown an ability to elevate turnout and support among black voters above/beyond the very predictable 89-92% D support and [BVAP 5-7 points lower than WVAP] turnout. Literally the only reason for picking Harris is rooted in one or more variants of "she's a black woman - she'll turn out the black vote!" (whether people own up to it explicitly, or want to use some variant of "she's articulate!", "she's professional", or any other number of tropes designated for black people who don't fulfill negative stereotypes). Do keep in mind that almost every single black statewide candidate across the nation has generated the exact amount of support and turnout as non-black statewide candidates over the past 20 years. People need to abandon the tropes.

Harris hasn't demonstrated any capacity to elevate black turnout or support in her own races. She barely won her first statewide race, and ran against a fellow Democrat, loser and serial dabber in 2016 - big whoop.

Abrams also doesn't have any preexisting issues with any aspect of the Democratic base, unlike Harris. She's younger, more dynamic and a better speaker if you're looking at ability to persuade or entertain (Harris is basically the black female equivalent of Buttigieg when you get down to brass tacks; stiff, boring, wants people to project their beliefs onto her rather than the other way around).

Let's be real: everybody - from Biden and the DNC, all the way down to random voters - wants a black female VP specifically for the electoral benefits. Harris has no history of showing she can deliver. A half-Indian, half-Jamaican non-ADOS descendant not being the best choice for this task in the United States of America shouldn't be all that surprising to people who aren't wrapped up in thinking black voters are a monolith and will just respond with enthusiasm regardless of the face so long as there's enough melanin. Abrams is a far better pick along the lines of why people are considering Harris in the first place.

Personally, I have many criticisms of Abrams as a candidate in the gubernatorial election of 2018, but in a national race, nah: she's the best choice if you're looking to mobilize black voters in a post-Obama world.

I'm skeptical a lot of these supposed Abrams benefits with AAs would show up outside of Georgia. Abrams had a very high profile and ran a very good campaign inside GA, but is her 2018 strength repeatable in Detroit or Philadelphia? I'm not so sure.

Say for a second that that's the case. Winning GA makes it incredibly easy for any competent Democrat to win nationally. I'm not going to bother to list all of the combos, but with GA, either 2 of the Rust Belt states or 1 of them + 1 of AZ/NC/FL ends the ballgame.

It's also worth noting that there are baseline turnout expectations regardless of the choice or climate; meaning that (in this case) black voters are going to show up in sufficient numbers regardless of what happens not to make or break the overall outcomes in most states.

There are really only 3 states at this point where a big difference in black turnout can reliably change the overall outcome: GA, FL & NC. Just as one example that you mentioned, MI isn't going to be won based on this (while black turnout cratered in the Rust Belt, black voters weren't responsible for us losing 10 points in the margin in MI between 2012 and 2016); furthermore, the black share of MI's population declined from 15% to 13% between 2010-2016 (Wayne County alone has lost 70k black residents over those 6 years; MI has lost 143k black residents despite the state growing by 25k people overall). In PA, it's going to come down more to whether the Rendells and Schumers of the world from 2016 were right about those Philly suburbs making up the difference.

I definitely believe that if Biden is very close in any/all of NC, GA & FL, then Abrams being VP can carry him across the finish line. The blacklash will hurt in other parts of the country (including the Rust Belt), but that'll be the case with Harris as well - and Abrams might just offset enough of that among northern black voters to pull out wins there regardless.

Perhaps. Even so, I'm not convinced that Abrams has unique appeal to NC and FL African-Americans. Despite running a fantastic campaign, she did at best 1 point better than another candidate strongly contesting the state would just given how GA has moved left each election. I certainly admire her and I don't think she's a bad pick, but I do question whether Abrams really has the potential to boost black turnout nationwide in a way another VP couldn't.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

My sources on Bidencord tell me these are the 4 being considered--

1.Harris
2.Warren
3. Klob
4. Lance Bottoms

Huh. I've heard Harris/Warren/Klob/CCM but that makes sense, I guess.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think the VP being “too old” is a weak attack. Does anyone really want Biden handpicking the next leader of the party? A Biden-Warren ticket could get us out of the mess of the last 4 years and set us on a path forward, then hand the baton off to whatever younger Democrat wins the *competitive and open* primaries next cycle.

Vice-President Harris/Klobuchar/Cortez-Masto immediately become the front runners for nominee in 2024. We were robbed a wide-open race this year by Biden and Bernie, they should let us have one next time so we can actually have an election that decides where we want to go as a party.

I think this is a strong argument for why Biden might pick one of them though. Biden probably does want to choose who he thinks would make the best 47th president, which is why I think he's going to pick Harris.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Sixty-seven percent of registered Latino voters would be more likely to support him if he picks Cortez Masto for the number two slot; 22% would be less likely to support him. Asked another way, 72% said they would be more likely to turn out and actually vote for Biden if he selected the Nevada senator; 17% would be less likely to do so.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-poll-latino-voters/

CCM is the candidate with least downsides, but a lot of pros: Critical demographic, age, senate control, experience, baggage or lack there of.

Abrams is not vice presidential material.

Yeah, I’m shifting more in favor of CCM as VEEP. The pros outweigh the cons by a lot with her.

Whatever happened to your love affair with Kamala?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I find it a little disappointing Rep. Nanette Barragan is never mentioned as vice presidential hopeful, although she would be a pretty good pick. I know she's not the most experienced in terms of years in Washington, but if Val Demings is (rightfully) considered, why not her? Both were first elected in 2016. Barragan is definitely more qualified for the job than Stacey Abrams. While she isn't from a battleground state, she represents a crucial demographic constituency (Hispanics, especially of Mexican heritage). Joe Biden needs them to turn out in huge numbers. At 44 on election day, she also offers generational balance to the ticket and is a good public speaker. If I were advising the Biden campaign, I would definitely take a strong look at her for the second spot.

Literally why?

She isn't the only under-50 Latina politician, and if that's the only criteria, then there are better picks than Barragan.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If he wants to go the Hillary route and (foolishly) bank on the support of Black Americans just because he was O's VP,  then so be it. But representation matters. Hillary learned that the hard way with reduced AfAm support after choosing milquetoast Tim Kaine of all people.

It was inevitable for Black turnout and support to decline as Obama wasn't on the ballot. I also doubt Hillary picking Kaine for the ticket significantly hurt her in this area even if he didn't help her much at all.

Perhaps, but picking Cory Booker, for example, could have made a critical difference.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I halfway hope it's Duckworth so all the stans can just STFU. (Yes, I'm acknowledging there are some K-Hive that need... help.)

All I need in life to be happy is Kamala living on Observatory Circle.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/david_darmofal/status/1285738385445920769?s=20

Is this code for not Warren?

He knows Warren's "socialist" background would hurt his campaign, so another white male putting himself ahead of a woman possibly having a great opportunity. Classic neoliberalism.

>Everything I don't like is neoliberalism and the more I don't like it the neoliberaler it is.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I wasn’t aware Harris had any significant base of support among any demographic during her presidential run, judging by her poll numbers. News to me!

I suspect what you're not aware of could fill several libraries.

Yet there'll be no Kamala Harris Presidential Library to be filled.

No Warren/Sanders either.

Lets be honest, they're just mad that Kamala Harris is probably going to be the 47th president of the United States and Warren or Sanders never will.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Honestly, I have absolutely no idea. This whole thing has been very emotionally draining. I desperately want it to be Kamala though.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

FWIW, I remember Hillary sending out the Tim Kaine text later on in the day, so it could still be coming.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I need to just take a sedative and wake up in a week after this is done. The anticipation is killing me.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/jonallendc/status/1292941826480050176

I was honestly thinking this unironically. Or at lease planning some big joint event/discussing appointments with people.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I need to just take a sedative and wake up in a week after this is done. The anticipation is killing me.

I remember thinking this the week of the 2016 election. Be careful what you wish for!

Well, this announcement is really the first week of the 2024 election so it's as big of a f**king deal.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Why did she unfollow Biden from twitter? Was she not the pick?

Makes her more likely to be Veep in my mind. The 'petty revenge' thing is fun but seems unrealistic.

I agree but unfollowing makes no sense. Like what's the point of that?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/MrPeanut/status/1292899441167540224

Joe Biden/Jimmy Carter confirmed!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

What happens if we text “last” to 30330?

You summon Sirrah Alamak from the grave and she will haunt Observatory Circle until the end of time.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/repbrendanboyle/status/1292985683087327233

I really think this would juice turnout in the Philly area for Biden, great pick and balance to the ticket

It could definitely counteract Trump's strength with the orange vote.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I got a text








































That doing this is really dumb and obnoxious but it helps this thread become longer so keep it up people.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Let's start speculating on Biden's cabinet since we have no real news to go off of:

VP: Harris
State: Rice
Treasury: Warren
HUD: Buttigieg
AG: Doug Jones?

I see Buttigieg as UN Ambassador and I'm not sure Warren would leave the senate for anything but VP.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The real question then is has anybody been keeping tabs on Kamala. Presumably she's in DC or Delaware but I've heard surprisingly (suspiciously?) little on her location from reporters or anyone else. I'd assume they'd drive her up to Wilmington given the obviously public nature of flying or Amtracking, but knowing where she is will give us the biggest single indicator of whether or not she's the pick. Of course, she could just be lying low at her house in LA in which case somebody should be keeping track of charters out of Van Nuys.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Keep your phones close everyone

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If Biden literally just told his top advisors today, doesn’t that make the logistics of an announcement today somewhat challenging?

- It takes a pre-recorded rollout video with strong production values off the table
- It requires the running mate to actually be in Delaware if a staged event is in the works

I guess it’s possible the candidate has stuck around. I certainly hope so, because I don’t want a Zoom call.

I'm pretty sure it's gonna be in Wilmington, in person. That hotel set up is just too obvious.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Watch it be some random woman we never heard of

VP Tina Kotek!