2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

You're citing statistics that mean absolutely nothing of predictive value. Let's see what turnout is right before the election.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

You're citing statistics that mean absolutely nothing of predictive value. Let's see what turnout is right before the election.

Huh? States are literally nearing 25% of their entire 2016 turnout with a *MONTH TO GO* That is absolutely of predictive value that this is going to be insanely high turnout election

It could be frontloaded. And no state is near 25% besides South Dakota (which is at 17%). virginia/wisconsin are only around 13%...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I don't think it's worth paying much attention to early voting until right before election night. We still don't have enough data at all.

With some states already approaching 25% of their 2016 turnout more than a month still out, I disagree.

You're citing statistics that mean absolutely nothing of predictive value. Let's see what turnout is right before the election.

Huh? States are literally nearing 25% of their entire 2016 turnout with a *MONTH TO GO* That is absolutely of predictive value that this is going to be insanely high turnout election

It could be frontloaded. And no state is near 25% besides South Dakota (which is at 17%). virginia/wisconsin are only around 13%...

Most primaries saw record turnout as well. All of the evidence we have points to a very high turnout election with record breaking turnout

I'm not disagreeing that there will be record turnout. I just don't think we can determine that it is very good for democrats yet. We need more data before we can say anything conclusive.

I would obviously hope it's good for dems because I support Biden, but it's best not to be overconfident.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/michigan-results
The models are worrisome.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/nebraska-results

Thankfully, dems are leading in Nebraska to make up for their loss in Michigan

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Hawkfish has new data out of the swing states based on the EV - their analyzations show that so far, Dems are turning out not just more high propensity voters than Reps, but also more 'sporadic voters' (low propensity) and new registrants.

Also, they modeled:

"At a glance, the top-line Democratic margins also look huge in Arizona (16 percentage points), Michigan (24 points), North Carolina (14 points), Pennsylvania (46 points), and Wisconsin (22), according to the analysis from Hawkfish, which is funded by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a Trump foe."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363

Is Hawkfish trustworthy at all?