Predict Iowa for the Democrats

[MarkWarner08]

As of December 21st, 2007, who will win Iowa and with what % of the vote?

My prediction:

Obama: 30%
Edwards: 27%
Hillary: 26%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 6%
Dodd: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Gravel: 0%


What is Hillary's floor? Will Richardson finish above Biden? Could a snowstorm depress the Clinton camp's turnout numbers? Will Obama's college students supporters be too "busy" to vote for him? How many of Edwards' 2004 supporters will desert him on poll day? Where will the highest turnout come from? Will any candidates drop out on election night?

So many questions, so many intelligent posters...

[MarkWarner08]

On momentum:

Hillary Clinton was virtually tied with Rick Lazio in October 2000. Pundits, pollsters, and campaign aides were all predicting a dead-heat election. Surprisingly, Hillary surged in the final week of the campaign and won on election day with 55%. Hillary on the "big mo" scale: 4/5 stars

John Edwards has trailed by large margins in his only two campaigns for public office. In the 1998 NC Senate race he surged into the lead after several strong debate performances against incumbent Launch Faircloth. Edwards eventually won by 4%, a strong win for a novice candidate.
Edwards on the "big mo" scale: 4.25/5 stars

Barack Obama was unknown to most voters when he announced his 2004 bid for the U.S Senate. The Democratic primary featured a billionaire, a statewide elected official, and several other prominent candidates with geographical or ethnic bases. After the billionaire's campaign imploded due to spousal abuse charges, Obama's pol numbers surged. He closes the deal with a powerful series of ads featuring the widow of liberal icon Paul Simon praising Barack Obama.
Obama on the "big mo' scale: 4/5 stars

All three Democratic frontrunners are solid closers, but with the race a statistical dead-heat, the edge should go to the man with the most experience closing elections. That's why my gut now tells me the winner will either be Edwards or Hillary.

[MarkWarner08]

I'll probably make one final prediction the day before the caucus. Today's gut says Obama in 1st, Hilldawg in 2nd, and Edwards in 3rd.

[MarkWarner08]

Today's prediction: Edwards, by a nose hair.

[MarkWarner08]

Today's news: Obama is not dead yet. This race is deadlocked.

[MarkWarner08]

Penultimate Prediction:
Edwards: 32%
Hillary: 29%
Obama: 25%
Richardson: 6%
Biden: 5%
Dodd: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Gravel: 0%

[MarkWarner08]

I have heard several pundits argue that the actual margin will be larger than what's currently indicated by the polls. Do most forum members agree with this viewpoint?

[MarkWarner08]

As of December 21st, 2007, who will win Iowa and with what % of the vote?

My prediction:

Obama: 30%
Edwards: 27%
Hillary: 26%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 6%
Dodd: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Gravel: 0%

Final Prediction:
Obama: 32%    O up 2%
Edwards: 28%  E up 1%
Clinton: 26%     C flat
Biden: 7%         B up 1%
Richardson: 5% R  down 3%
Dodd: 1%          D down 1%
Kucinich 1%       K flat
Gravel: 0%        G stuck at zero

Last minute "big mo" goes to Obama and Biden.

[MarkWarner08]

Is the collective feeling that Richardson is plummeting in terms of momentum?

[MarkWarner08]

When you're losing the message wars, you're bound to lose the battle. For months Hillary has sought to make this election about experience, when this strategy she failed, she tried a new tact: change through experience. Hillary claimed she was the only candidate with the experience to deliver change.

Now that her third message failed, she's plagiarized Obama's call to action.  For much of 2007 Obama has been saying "Fired up, ready to go!" Here's Hillary Clinton's new closer: "We are fired up and we are ready to go because we know America is ready for change and the process starts right here in Iowa."

Hillary has lost the message wars and Edwards has gone nuclear, using rhetoric that would make Norman Thomas blush. Meanwhile, Obama's pleasant message of change is winning Republicans and Independents to his side. As long as the young folks show up, Obama should win tomorrow by 3-4%.

[MarkWarner08]

Clinton spokesguy Howard Wolfson stole another one of Obama's lines during a Hardball interview. Are the Clinton folks so desperate to stop Obama that they'll attempt to confuse voters about which candidate is the real change agent?

[MarkWarner08]

For right now - I reserve the right to change...

Edwards 29.9%
Clinton 29.3%
Obama 28.4%
Richardson 5.5%
Biden 4.4%
Others 2.5%

Edwards delegate % will naturally be slightly higher.

This one's looking a bit changed than before - unlike the Republicans, I think I can clearly see what's going to happen (unless I'm wrong )  As I commented before, I see some late Obama momentum and I think turnout will be strong.  This prediction is, of course, invalid if wrong.

Final Prediction - January 3, 2008
Obama 32.01%
Edwards 29.79%
Clinton 27.05%
Biden 4.79%
Richardson 4.42%
Others 1.94%

Good to see we're in agreement on the order of the candidates. Aren't you going to place Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel? Your prediction for Gravel -- 0.01%?

[MarkWarner08]

For right now - I reserve the right to change...

Edwards 29.9%
Clinton 29.3%
Obama 28.4%
Richardson 5.5%
Biden 4.4%
Others 2.5%

Edwards delegate % will naturally be slightly higher.

This one's looking a bit changed than before - unlike the Republicans, I think I can clearly see what's going to happen (unless I'm wrong )  As I commented before, I see some late Obama momentum and I think turnout will be strong.  This prediction is, of course, invalid if wrong.

Final Prediction - January 3, 2008
Obama 32.01%
Edwards 29.79%
Clinton 27.05%
Biden 4.79%
Richardson 4.42%
Others 1.94%

Good to see we're in agreement on the order of the candidates. Aren't you going to place Dodd, Kucinich and Gravel? Your prediction for Gravel -- 0.01%?

I'll let you make a prediction on that one.

LOL. If Gravel somehow beats Chris Dodd...

[MarkWarner08]

Any more predictions? If not, I'm de facto locking this thread till the results roll in.



Edit: Finally I have an excuse to use this awesome padlock graphic!