Predict Iowa for the Democrats

[© tweed]

subject to a list-minute change of course...

Edwards 33.4%
Clinton 31.9%
Obama 26.5%

[MarkWarner08]

Penultimate Prediction:
Edwards: 32%
Hillary: 29%
Obama: 25%
Richardson: 6%
Biden: 5%
Dodd: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Gravel: 0%

[Flying Dog]

1 of 3 predictions:

Obama: 31%
Clinton: 32%
Edwards: 24%

[CultureKing]

Penultimate Prediction:
Edwards: 33%
Hillary: 28%
Obama: 25%
Richardson: 7%
Biden: 4%
Dodd: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Gravel: 0%

[Erc]

No actual prediction as to the winner, but I will make this prediction:

The gap between first and third will be more than 10 points.

[Eraserhead]

I'll make my final prediction late tomorrow night.

People who make their final predictions after the enterance polls come out are lame.

[Frodo]

Clinton
Obama
Edwards
----------------------------

If college students do actually turn out for Obama, then clearly my (semi-serious) prediction will have been wrong.  Then again, they didn't turn out for Howard Dean in 2004 when he really needed them, and I have little reason to expect they will behave any differently this time around. 

So, old (female) farts will dominate the caucuses throughout Iowa like they always have, giving Hillary Clinton the victory and momentum she needs. 

[Flying Dog]

So, old (female) farts will dominate the caucuses throughout Iowa like they always have, giving Hillary Clinton the victory and momentum she needs. 

However, polls show the old farts are split between Edwards and Hillary. And the females are split between Obama and Clinton.

[Torie]

Delegates:

Edwards 37%
Clinton 32%
Obama 31%

Entrance polls:

Obama 32%
Clinton 29%
Edwards 27%
Others 12%

[Frodo]

So, old (female) farts will dominate the caucuses throughout Iowa like they always have, giving Hillary Clinton the victory and momentum she needs. 

However, polls show the old farts are split between Edwards and Hillary. And the females are split between Obama and Clinton.

And how valuable (i.e. accurate) are those polls when it comes to Iowa? 

[Flying Dog]

So, old (female) farts will dominate the caucuses throughout Iowa like they always have, giving Hillary Clinton the victory and momentum she needs. 

However, polls show the old farts are split between Edwards and Hillary. And the females are split between Obama and Clinton.

And how valuable (i.e. accurate) are those polls when it comes to Iowa? 

Not very. However, the particular poll I was thinking about, the Des Moines Register one, at least had the order right for 2004. So, I am grabbing on to any little bit of info available.

[Sam Spade]

For right now - I reserve the right to change...

Edwards 29.9%
Clinton 29.3%
Obama 28.4%
Richardson 5.5%
Biden 4.4%
Others 2.5%

Edwards delegate % will naturally be slightly higher.

[user60521]

Edwards: 29%
Hillary: 28%
Obama: 26%
Richardson: 6%
Biden: 5%
Kucinich: 4%
Dodd: 2%
Gravel: 0%

[Flying Dog]

1 of 3 predictions:

Obama: 34% (31)
Clinton: 30% (32)
Edwards: 25% (24)

[Verily]

Obama: 34
Edwards: 33
Clinton: 28

[Silent Hunter]

Clinton, Obama, Edwards.

[elcorazon]

Edwards 33%
Obama 28%
Clinton 20%
Dodd 11%

Edwards campaign gets a shot in the arm.  Obama's keeps on trucking.  Clinton's is staggered a bit and Dodd lives to breathe another day and has a bit of a home field advantage in NH.  None of the others can be encouraged with the results.  First to drop out will be Richardson.

[Verily]

Edwards 33%
Obama 28%
Clinton 20%
Dodd 11%

Edwards campaign gets a shot in the arm.  Obama's keeps on trucking.  Clinton's is staggered a bit and Dodd lives to breathe another day and has a bit of a home field advantage in NH.  None of the others can be encouraged with the results.  First to drop out will be Richardson.

11% for Dodd? You have to be kidding me.

[Sam Spade]

Really, I think better than making predictions, we should throw darts at a board.  That's how close I suspect this race is.

[elcorazon]

Edwards 33%
Obama 28%
Clinton 20%
Dodd 11%

Edwards campaign gets a shot in the arm.  Obama's keeps on trucking.  Clinton's is staggered a bit and Dodd lives to breathe another day and has a bit of a home field advantage in NH.  None of the others can be encouraged with the results.  First to drop out will be Richardson.

11% for Dodd? You have to be kidding me.

I'm grasping a bit, but there's always a surprise in Iowa - someone who connects better than expected.  I'm thinking this year it'll be Dodd.  Unfortunately for Dodd, he'll be no better than 4th place anyway, and a fairly distant 4th at that, so I'm not sure if it'll have any real meaning.  We'll see.  How was Edwards polling 4 years ago heading into Iowa?

[Eraserhead]

Edwards 33%
Obama 28%
Clinton 20%
Dodd 11%

Edwards campaign gets a shot in the arm.  Obama's keeps on trucking.  Clinton's is staggered a bit and Dodd lives to breathe another day and has a bit of a home field advantage in NH.  None of the others can be encouraged with the results.  First to drop out will be Richardson.

11% for Dodd? You have to be kidding me.

I'm grasping a bit, but there's always a surprise in Iowa - someone who connects better than expected.  I'm thinking this year it'll be Dodd.  Unfortunately for Dodd, he'll be no better than 4th place anyway, and a fairly distant 4th at that, so I'm not sure if it'll have any real meaning.  We'll see.  How was Edwards polling 4 years ago heading into Iowa?

He was in second place.... at least in the DMR polling.

[Verily]

Edwards 33%
Obama 28%
Clinton 20%
Dodd 11%

Edwards campaign gets a shot in the arm.  Obama's keeps on trucking.  Clinton's is staggered a bit and Dodd lives to breathe another day and has a bit of a home field advantage in NH.  None of the others can be encouraged with the results.  First to drop out will be Richardson.

11% for Dodd? You have to be kidding me.

I'm grasping a bit, but there's always a surprise in Iowa - someone who connects better than expected.  I'm thinking this year it'll be Dodd.  Unfortunately for Dodd, he'll be no better than 4th place anyway, and a fairly distant 4th at that, so I'm not sure if it'll have any real meaning.  We'll see.  How was Edwards polling 4 years ago heading into Iowa?

In the last few days, between 18 and 21%. Then again, Kerry's highest was 26%; it was really that the polls were overestimating Gephardt and the minor candidates. If the polls are overestimating the minor candidates again, Dodd could well end up with 0%.

[Flying Dog]

Edwards 33%
Obama 28%
Clinton 20%
Dodd 11%

Edwards campaign gets a shot in the arm.  Obama's keeps on trucking.  Clinton's is staggered a bit and Dodd lives to breathe another day and has a bit of a home field advantage in NH.  None of the others can be encouraged with the results.  First to drop out will be Richardson.

11% for Dodd? You have to be kidding me.

I'm grasping a bit, but there's always a surprise in Iowa - someone who connects better than expected.  I'm thinking this year it'll be Dodd.  Unfortunately for Dodd, he'll be no better than 4th place anyway, and a fairly distant 4th at that, so I'm not sure if it'll have any real meaning.  We'll see.  How was Edwards polling 4 years ago heading into Iowa?

 it was really that the polls were overestimating Gephardt and the minor candidates.

It was largely the Union support that sunk Gephardt. They weren't very reliable and some even jumped ship for Kerry and Edwards at the last minute.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama: 29%
Edwards: 28%
Hillary: 27%

What would be the delegate allocation with that by the way? Probably way unproportional.

[MarkWarner08]

I have heard several pundits argue that the actual margin will be larger than what's currently indicated by the polls. Do most forum members agree with this viewpoint?