Predict Iowa for the Democrats
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Author Topic: Predict Iowa for the Democrats  (Read 10462 times)
MarkWarner08
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« on: December 22, 2007, 01:02:13 AM »
As of December 21st, 2007, who will win Iowa and with what % of the vote?

My prediction:

Obama: 30%
Edwards: 27%
Hillary: 26%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 6%
Dodd: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Gravel: 0%


What is Hillary's floor? Will Richardson finish above Biden? Could a snowstorm depress the Clinton camp's turnout numbers? Will Obama's college students supporters be too "busy" to vote for him? How many of Edwards' 2004 supporters will desert him on poll day? Where will the highest turnout come from? Will any candidates drop out on election night?

So many questions, so many intelligent posters...
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Sensei
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« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2007, 01:06:22 AM »
I'm giving it to Obama or Edwards at the moment. Expect Hillary to have a disappointing showing.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2007, 01:08:03 AM »
Edwards: 30%
Clinton: 27%
Obama: 27%
Biden: 7%
Richardson: 6%
Dodd: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Gravel: 0%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2007, 01:16:27 AM »
Quote from: Fmr Gov. Polnut on December 22, 2007, 01:08:03 AM
Edwards: 30%
Clinton: 27%
Obama: 27%
Biden: 7%
Richardson: 6%
Dodd: 2%
Kucinich: 1%
Gravel: 0%

See, I don't think Biden, Richardson, et al. will manage to combine for 15%.  I know that's close to where they're polling now, but they won't make the 15% viability threshold in most precincts, so that'll drive their numbers down.  My guess is that both Biden and Richardson are under 5%.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #4 on: December 22, 2007, 01:27:47 AM »
As of December 21st, 2007:

Obama 33%
Edwards 26%
Clinton 25%
Richardson 7%
Biden 6%
Dodd 2%
Kucinich 1%
Gravel 0%
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2007, 01:37:57 AM »
Edwards 34%
Obama 26%
Clinton 25%
Biden 8%
Richardson 4%
Dodd 2%
Kucinich 1%
Gravel 0%
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Aizen
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« Reply #6 on: December 22, 2007, 01:48:25 AM »
Obama: 30%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 24%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 6%
Kucinich: 3%
Dodd: 1%
Gravel: 1%
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JSojourner
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« Reply #7 on: December 22, 2007, 01:52:24 AM »
Edwards wins, Obama second, Hillary third.  After that, does it matter?

I'd love for Biden or Dodd to sneak into second or third, but it ain't gonna happen.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #8 on: December 22, 2007, 03:19:49 AM »
It will be Obama, Hillary, Edwards. 
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Padfoot
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« Reply #9 on: December 22, 2007, 04:53:27 AM »
The winner will be Hillary Hussein Edwards with 90% of the vote
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #10 on: December 22, 2007, 04:54:36 AM »
Quote from: Padfoot on December 22, 2007, 04:53:27 AM
The winner will be Hillary Hussein Edwards with 90% of the vote

Then it will go on a rampage through Des Moines looking for the other 10%
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Bacon King
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« Reply #11 on: December 22, 2007, 08:49:27 AM »
Obama: 36%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 25%
Biden: 7%
Richardson: 4%
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #12 on: December 22, 2007, 09:45:33 AM »
Clinton 36%
Obama 32%
Edwards 20%
Richardson 5%
Biden 3%
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Moooooo
nickshepDEM
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« Reply #13 on: December 22, 2007, 10:15:00 AM »
Clinton
Obama
Edwards

Democratic 'insurgent' candidates rarely pull it off in Iowa.  See: Dean, Bradley, Hart, Kennedy, etc...

I hope I'm wrong.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #14 on: December 22, 2007, 10:23:03 AM »
obama
clinton
edwards
biden
richardson
dodd
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2007, 01:50:05 PM »
Edwards
Obama
Hillary
Biden
Richardson
Dodd
Kucinich
Gravel
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afleitch
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« Reply #16 on: December 22, 2007, 02:49:38 PM »
Edwards by a suprisingly large margin
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Kushahontas
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« Reply #17 on: December 22, 2007, 03:34:48 PM »

clinton
obama
edwards
richardson
biden
dodd
kucinich
gravel
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The Mikado
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« Reply #18 on: December 22, 2007, 04:00:26 PM »
Obama takes Iowa.

Damn, that's a hard prediction to make.
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bbt
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« Reply #19 on: December 22, 2007, 04:20:59 PM »
Obama  29%
Edwards  28%
Clinton  27%
Richardson  7%
Biden  6%
Dodd  2%

Remaining 1% split for Kucinich, others
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gorkay
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« Reply #20 on: December 22, 2007, 07:05:29 PM »
Obama first, Clinton second, Edwards third, Biden fourth, Richardson fifth, Dodd sixth, Kucinich seventh, Gravel eighth. I don't know about percentages but I would guess it would be very close between first, second, and third.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #21 on: December 22, 2007, 07:51:40 PM »
Quote from: ¡Bacon King! on December 22, 2007, 08:49:27 AM
Obama: 36%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 25%
Biden: 7%
Richardson: 4%

Pretty close.
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Verily
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« Reply #22 on: December 22, 2007, 07:57:20 PM »
Quote from: ¡Bacon King! on December 22, 2007, 08:49:27 AM
Obama: 36%
Clinton: 27%
Edwards: 25%
Biden: 7%
Richardson: 4%

One can only hope.


I may try to predict Iowa on January 2.
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TomC
TCash101
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« Reply #23 on: December 22, 2007, 08:22:03 PM »
Edwards 30
Clinton 27
Obama 26

I hope it's the opposite order though.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #24 on: December 25, 2007, 02:31:38 PM »
Clinton: 30%
Edwards: 29%
Obama: 20%
Richardson: 8%
Biden: 8%
Dodd: 3%
Kucinich: 2%
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