Decision '08: McCain/Huckabee vs. Warner/Richardson

[MarkWarner08]

McCain/Huckabee  vs. Warner/Richardson

Six years, John McCain came within breathing distance of the Republican Nomination and a likely General election win.  By 2006, McCain had wooed Dean’s webmaster and picked up most of Bush’s political consultants. He decides to pick Mike Huckabee, a charismatic, crusading conservative Southern Governor. Huckabee has led the fight nationally against obesity and he also enjoys strong approval ratings in Arkansas, a southern swing state. Huckabee would provide geographical and ideological balance to this ticket. McCain will need Huckabee, a  former Southern Baptist minister  to placate the evangelical base. Both Huckabee and McCain care deeply about Global Warming and have proven appeal to moderates in their respective states.

The Democrats by 2008 have concluded that nominating another Northeastern liberal is not a recipe for success. The same party that has had only one elected President in 28 years, and only two Presidents since 1968, finally decides to nominate another Southerner.

 The Democrats turn to their only Southern Governor with presidential aspirations, Mark Warner. Warner remains wildly popular in home state of Virginia, even among Republicans. Warner is the future of the Democratic party: he’s pro small, effective government, he’s pro-gun rights, he’s pro-environment and he has a vast appeal in both the suburbs and the exurbs. Warner helped a small business become a multi-billion dollar corporation and he helped pass a tax increase that was universally popular. Warner’s only weakness is his lack of national security bona fides.  Warner will likely be able to capture Virginia and might come close in North Carolina. Who can Warner turn to?  Bill Richardson is the only candidate who can fit the bill.

Richardson is a former UN ambassador and congressman. He got tough with Kim Jong il and is very well versed in international relations. His leadership in this field with be key to restoring a America’s soft power. He’s currently Governor of New Mexico, a pivotal swing state that border John McCain’s Arizona. Governor Richardson  enjoys the status of being a Hispanic with an Anglo surname. Richardson would become a hero to many Hispanics, a burgeoning voter group. Richardson also has successfully straddled his heritage with a get tough approach to illegal immigration.  Richardson will battle McCain to a draw in the Southwest. McCain wins Arizona; Richardson wins New Mexico. Colorado is anyone’s guess.

I see McCain making inroads in the West and Warner will likely hold the entire Northeast. With the two parties geographically equalized in the Southeast and the Southwest, the battle for the Presidency will once again be fought in the Midwest.

I can see Warner winning Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois. Ohio, Pennsylvania and Missouri become pure tossups.


Warner/Richardson: 306 Electoral votes
 
McCain/Huckabee: 232 Electoral votes

Democrats win: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon,  California, Nevada, New Mexico,  Colorado, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina, Maryland, DC, Rhode Island, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

Republicans wins: Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, West Virginia and Ohio

[MarkWarner08]

Well, one thing's for sure, NC will not vote Dem in '08, it's not even a swing state. I'd flip WV. Edwards on the ticket in '04 didn't help Kerry at all.

This would be a very interesting race. Of course, I would vote for McCain mainly because of Huckabee, but I definitely think it could go either way.

Here's what I think, take it or leave it:

It's like 2000 in reverse. Warner wins 271-267. At this point, I will give the edge to Warner. After the midterms, we'll probably be able to see more reliable information.

West Virginia is less likely than North Carolina to go Democratic. Warner is very popular in both rural areas and in places like Fairfax County. Warner can win in the Reseach Triangle and come close in rural areas.

Still, It's more likely the both go to McCain. Why do you have Nevada and Colorado going to McCain? Do you think he'll outduke Richardson in the Southwest?

[MarkWarner08]

I thought McCain would win CO and NV based on his Southwestern appeal. People vote for the top of the ticket, and since CO still leans REP, though it is trending your way, I don't see why McCain as a moderate would do worse than Bush.
I have been to Colorado many times in my life. people I run across there want the govt. to stay out of their lives as much as possible, which is more libertarian in nature.  It seems to me that CO is politically in the center-right on economics, and center-left on social issues. I think it would be a close race here, but I think McCain would still win by 4-5 points. Nevada would probably be closer as it is always.

However, I may be underestimating Richardson.

If Warner is so popular in rural areas as you say, why do you think he would lose WV? I still think WV is still Dem. at heart just like AR is. Given the right Dem, Warner, these would certainly be swing states.

Since Warner supports the 2nd amendment, and has no ties to some of the  uber-liberal Dems in Washington, I don't think the liberal label will stick to him, and so he wins WV. NC is still too Rep. for Warner at this point. Give it 10 years, and NC could very well be a swing state.
Dems have always tried to win NC, as they put Edwards on the ticket. They didn't get very far. Even Bush was able to crack 56% there.

Tennessee, where I live, could be competetive with Southern governor Warner on the ticket. there was a poll about 3 weeks ago, saying that Tennesseans want to see a Dem president 41-39. I think this was a Rausmusenn poll. Could be biased. Shelby county is trending Dem and has been for a while, which is why it seems from West TN that TN could be competitive. I hope not though:)

As for VA, definitely trending Dem. and will probably be shooed to the left more obviously because of Warner. in the future, definite swing state.

Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, SC) lost cause for Warner.

OK I'm done rambling. whadduya think?

BTW, does the research triangle consist of Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Chapel Hill? or is Charlotte one of them. I should know this, I have many friends in NC; beautiful state!!

Colorado goes Democratic in 2008.  Richardson will help boost the Hispanic turnout and accentuate the state's trend to the left.  Nevada will be very close but my gut tells me it goes Democratic.

I think West Virginia has gone the way of Kentucky and left the Democratic Party for the near future. They are both rural, conservative states that don't like environmentalism, something the Democratic Party is closely tied to. Only nominating Joe Manchin for VP could bring WV into the Democratic column.

The Research Triangle is Durham, Raleigh and Chapel Hill.  After some close reading of North Carolina, I've come to agree with you that its off the table for Democrats for until 2012 or 2016.

[MarkWarner08]

I thought McCain would win CO and NV based on his Southwestern appeal. People vote for the top of the ticket, and since CO still leans REP, though it is trending your way, I don't see why McCain as a moderate would do worse than Bush.
I have been to Colorado many times in my life. people I run across there want the govt. to stay out of their lives as much as possible, which is more libertarian in nature.  It seems to me that CO is politically in the center-right on economics, and center-left on social issues. I think it would be a close race here, but I think McCain would still win by 4-5 points. Nevada would probably be closer as it is always.

However, I may be underestimating Richardson.

If Warner is so popular in rural areas as you say, why do you think he would lose WV? I still think WV is still Dem. at heart just like AR is. Given the right Dem, Warner, these would certainly be swing states.

Since Warner supports the 2nd amendment, and has no ties to some of the  uber-liberal Dems in Washington, I don't think the liberal label will stick to him, and so he wins WV. NC is still too Rep. for Warner at this point. Give it 10 years, and NC could very well be a swing state.
Dems have always tried to win NC, as they put Edwards on the ticket. They didn't get very far. Even Bush was able to crack 56% there.

Tennessee, where I live, could be competetive with Southern governor Warner on the ticket. there was a poll about 3 weeks ago, saying that Tennesseans want to see a Dem president 41-39. I think this was a Rausmusenn poll. Could be biased. Shelby county is trending Dem and has been for a while, which is why it seems from West TN that TN could be competitive. I hope not though:)

As for VA, definitely trending Dem. and will probably be shooed to the left more obviously because of Warner. in the future, definite swing state.

Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, SC) lost cause for Warner.

OK I'm done rambling. whadduya think?

BTW, does the research triangle consist of Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Chapel Hill? or is Charlotte one of them. I should know this, I have many friends in NC; beautiful state!!

Colorado goes Democratic in 2008.  Richardson will help boost the Hispanic turnout and accentuate the state's trend to the left.  Nevada will be very close but my gut tells me it goes Democratic.

I think West Virginia has gone the way of Kentucky and left the Democratic Party for the near future. They are both rural, conservative states that don't like environmentalism, something the Democratic Party is closely tied to. Only nominating Joe Manchin for VP could bring WV into the Democratic column.

The Research Triangle is Durham, Raleigh and Chapel Hill.  After some close reading of North Carolina, I've come to agree with you that its off the table for Democrats for until 2012 or 2016.

I think you may be right about West Virginia, which is good for the GOP (puts 5 Ev's into our basket. yay!) but I still think it's too early to call CO for Warner.

Now, I agree that if it's Allen vs. Warner, CO could very well go Dem.
Richardson will make a positive impact for Warner, and would certainly flip NM. However, with the strong candidacy of McCain, I'm not willing to give up CO, which btw is my favorite place in the world.

I guess to answer your question, McCain CAN outduke Richardson in the SW, but remember McCain's running against WARNER ... NOT Richardson.

I still think McCain can flip NH. W won it in 2000, and only lost it by 1 against Kerry. Just my opinion.

New Hampshire is trending Democratic -- time to put this one in the Warner column. Democrats will see their Governor reelected and Rep. Charlie Bass (R) may be headed to defeat.

In 2004, Colorado elected a Democratic State House and Senate and the elected a new Democratic congressman and Senator. In 2006, Colorado will likely elect a Democratic Governor and another new Democratic congresman.

Do you think Huckabee would help McCain carry Tennessee?

[MarkWarner08]

Here is a better map:

Why does Iowa goe Democratic, while Wisconsin goes Republican? Iowa went Republican 50%-49% in 2004, while Wisconsin went Democratic by the same margin. While both states are trending Republican, Iowa is trending  in that direction faster. I would say Iowa goes  to McCain, Wisconsin goes to Warner.

[MarkWarner08]

First of all, great analysis by MarkWarner08 in your opening ramarks.

I am going to pick McCain.  Personally, I believe Warner's pesidential credentials, or perceived presidential credentials, are vastly overblown.  I simply do not believe America will put national security and the nation's future into the hands of a one term Governor from Virginia.

Both Vice Presidential candidates are credible, and do not detract from the ticket.  When it comes right down to it, people vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom.  Vice Presidential candidates tend not to have a great influence on how people ultimately vote.  Richardson, although a good VP pick for Warner, is not going to swing the southwest to the Democrats with McCain as the Republican nominee.  McCain as the Republican Presidential nominee will trump Richardson as the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee in the region.

McCain's reputation and experience will win the day.

Wisconsin has been teetering on the brink for the Republicans for the past two elections, and McCain will be the one to bring it into the Republican column.

Personally, although not reflected on the map, I give McCain a good chance in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire as well.   

McCain/Huckabee          273
Warner/Richardson        265

Winfield, do you think Warner has a chance of beating McCain in Colorado? That state seems to be very similar to Wisconsin -- they're  both formerly safe states that have become highly competitive.

[MarkWarner08]

300-238

Why do you have McCain winning one of Maine's electoral votes? Didn't that electoral vote give Kerry a bigger margin than Gore?

[MarkWarner08]

Several of our eastern counties went for Gore in 2000 because at the time he was more centrist than John Kerry.

Dukakis also did very well in Little Dixie, and even Mondale carried a few counties. The 2004 result seems to have been a bit of an outlier... iirc, the Bush sweep resulted from abnormal evangelical turnout (the same thing happened in West Virginia). This kind of 77-county victory isn't going to be replicated in '08, and Warner would break 40 percent. 

In the Federal level, we are light to moderate Red

As I said above, I agree that 2004's result was unusual. But 66 percent Republican is not a result that's easily reversed; the Dems would carry Texas before they carried Oklahoma.

the State level we are light blue to light pink

That is probably the most disturbing election map I've ever seen. In 2004, Oklahomans rejected a sensible, moderate-populist Democrat in favor of a guy who wants the death penalty for doctors that perform abortions and complains of "rampant lesbianism" in Oklahoma public schools... and it wasn't even close. That, to me, speaks volumes of the political climate in the Sooner State, and bodes ill for the Democratic Party.

Of course, you do have a great Democratic Governor who seems to be cruising to reelection. But Oklahoma is up there with Utah and Idaho as one of the states most hostile to national Democrats.

I agree with Rob. Brad Carson was probably the best Senate candidate Democrats had in 2004 and he still lost by double digits. I'd say Montana and Arizona vote for a Democrat for President before Oklahoma does.

[MarkWarner08]

Just a question?  Not trying to step on anybody's toes, here?  But?

Why does everybody put Oklahoma as deep blood red?  We are not as deep red as, say, Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, or Kansas.  We're more light red or normal red, not blood red.  We'll still probably go Republican, but we go for the more conservative candidate, not just the Republican candidate.  You have to take that from a guy who LIVES in Oklahoma and has lived in Oklahoma for almost 25 years and has been following politics at the presidential and state levels since 1988 and all levels since 1998.  I know all 77 counties went for Bush in 2004, but thats only because he's more conservative than John Kerry.  Several of our eastern counties went for Gore in 2000 because at the time he was more centrist than John Kerry.  Even more of our counties went Clinton in 1992 and 1996, partly because of a national landslide, but also because Clinton was a relatively moderate to conservative Democrat.

Remember, too, Oklahoma has more Democrats than Republicans, and the Democratic party is VERY strong in this state.  They are alive and well, and in some cases are slightly stronger than Oklahoma's Republican party.

In the Federal level, we are light to moderate Red, in the State level we are light blue to light pink, in the Local level we are a moderate blue.

Now, we do have liberals in this state.  They mainly reside in the eastern part of the state (Arkansas influence) while the western part of the state is more conservative (Kansas influence) and the I-35 corridor and 20 miles either side of I-35 is pretty moderate.

Just coordinating by general color. I wasnt doing proportions.

Does Warner have a shot in Ohio? If it goes hard left in 2006, will it boomerang back to the GOP in 2008, or stay with the Democrats in 2008?

[MarkWarner08]

Warner 277-261.

That looks like a good map.  I agree with your perception of Oklahoma going red, but not blood red.  It will take a heck of a Democrat to take Oklahoma, but it can be done, especially in about 2012 or later.  One change I would make to the map, though, is maybe color Washington and Oregon a hair lighter in color.  I think McCain could potentially make some inroads there.  They will likely still go Democrat, but they won't be as heavily on the Democrat side as, say, California.  Even California might be interesting, especially in the south near the Arizona border.  One has to believe with as many people as California has, that the election is not won or lost in the big cities of the I-5 corridor, including San Francisco.  San Diego is probably the most likely to go for McCain out of the "Big 4".

How would Oklahoma go if the Democrats nominated Bill Richardson and the GOP nominated George Pataki?

[MarkWarner08]

I've got a new thread started for Pataki/Richardson, but here's my map again.

Interesting. I never thought I'd see Oklahoma go Democratic and  Iowa go Republican. Otherwise, great map.

Why do you think Pataki would beat Richardson in Iowa? I'd think that if Montana is going Democratic, Iowa would probably go that way too.

[MarkWarner08]

Would a Richardson/Warner ticket do better than a Warner/Richardson ticket?
Richardson's nat security bona fides would cancel out McCain's war record and he would likely win Colorado too.

[MarkWarner08]

I want Warner/Huckabee. McCain is a disappointment and Richardson is a whiney bore.

What's your beef wtih Richardson? He's the only Democrat running in 2008 with the national security gravitas to win over swing voters. He's also a strong leader on wide array of progressive issues.