Decision '08: McCain/Huckabee vs. Warner/Richardson

[MarkWarner08]

McCain/Huckabee  vs. Warner/Richardson

Six years, John McCain came within breathing distance of the Republican Nomination and a likely General election win.  By 2006, McCain had wooed Dean’s webmaster and picked up most of Bush’s political consultants. He decides to pick Mike Huckabee, a charismatic, crusading conservative Southern Governor. Huckabee has led the fight nationally against obesity and he also enjoys strong approval ratings in Arkansas, a southern swing state. Huckabee would provide geographical and ideological balance to this ticket. McCain will need Huckabee, a  former Southern Baptist minister  to placate the evangelical base. Both Huckabee and McCain care deeply about Global Warming and have proven appeal to moderates in their respective states.

The Democrats by 2008 have concluded that nominating another Northeastern liberal is not a recipe for success. The same party that has had only one elected President in 28 years, and only two Presidents since 1968, finally decides to nominate another Southerner.

 The Democrats turn to their only Southern Governor with presidential aspirations, Mark Warner. Warner remains wildly popular in home state of Virginia, even among Republicans. Warner is the future of the Democratic party: he’s pro small, effective government, he’s pro-gun rights, he’s pro-environment and he has a vast appeal in both the suburbs and the exurbs. Warner helped a small business become a multi-billion dollar corporation and he helped pass a tax increase that was universally popular. Warner’s only weakness is his lack of national security bona fides.  Warner will likely be able to capture Virginia and might come close in North Carolina. Who can Warner turn to?  Bill Richardson is the only candidate who can fit the bill.

Richardson is a former UN ambassador and congressman. He got tough with Kim Jong il and is very well versed in international relations. His leadership in this field with be key to restoring a America’s soft power. He’s currently Governor of New Mexico, a pivotal swing state that border John McCain’s Arizona. Governor Richardson  enjoys the status of being a Hispanic with an Anglo surname. Richardson would become a hero to many Hispanics, a burgeoning voter group. Richardson also has successfully straddled his heritage with a get tough approach to illegal immigration.  Richardson will battle McCain to a draw in the Southwest. McCain wins Arizona; Richardson wins New Mexico. Colorado is anyone’s guess.

I see McCain making inroads in the West and Warner will likely hold the entire Northeast. With the two parties geographically equalized in the Southeast and the Southwest, the battle for the Presidency will once again be fought in the Midwest.

I can see Warner winning Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois. Ohio, Pennsylvania and Missouri become pure tossups.


Warner/Richardson: 306 Electoral votes
 
McCain/Huckabee: 232 Electoral votes

Democrats win: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon,  California, Nevada, New Mexico,  Colorado, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Virginia, North Carolina, Maryland, DC, Rhode Island, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

Republicans wins: Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, West Virginia and Ohio

[auburntiger]

Well, one thing's for sure, NC will not vote Dem in '08, it's not even a swing state. I'd flip WV. Edwards on the ticket in '04 didn't help Kerry at all.

This would be a very interesting race. Of course, I would vote for McCain mainly because of Huckabee, but I definitely think it could go either way.

Here's what I think, take it or leave it:

It's like 2000 in reverse. Warner wins 271-267. At this point, I will give the edge to Warner. After the midterms, we'll probably be able to see more reliable information.

[MarkWarner08]

Well, one thing's for sure, NC will not vote Dem in '08, it's not even a swing state. I'd flip WV. Edwards on the ticket in '04 didn't help Kerry at all.

This would be a very interesting race. Of course, I would vote for McCain mainly because of Huckabee, but I definitely think it could go either way.

Here's what I think, take it or leave it:

It's like 2000 in reverse. Warner wins 271-267. At this point, I will give the edge to Warner. After the midterms, we'll probably be able to see more reliable information.

West Virginia is less likely than North Carolina to go Democratic. Warner is very popular in both rural areas and in places like Fairfax County. Warner can win in the Reseach Triangle and come close in rural areas.

Still, It's more likely the both go to McCain. Why do you have Nevada and Colorado going to McCain? Do you think he'll outduke Richardson in the Southwest?

[auburntiger]

I thought McCain would win CO and NV based on his Southwestern appeal. People vote for the top of the ticket, and since CO still leans REP, though it is trending your way, I don't see why McCain as a moderate would do worse than Bush.
I have been to Colorado many times in my life. people I run across there want the govt. to stay out of their lives as much as possible, which is more libertarian in nature.  It seems to me that CO is politically in the center-right on economics, and center-left on social issues. I think it would be a close race here, but I think McCain would still win by 4-5 points. Nevada would probably be closer as it is always.

However, I may be underestimating Richardson.

If Warner is so popular in rural areas as you say, why do you think he would lose WV? I still think WV is still Dem. at heart just like AR is. Given the right Dem, Warner, these would certainly be swing states.

Since Warner supports the 2nd amendment, and has no ties to some of the  uber-liberal Dems in Washington, I don't think the liberal label will stick to him, and so he wins WV. NC is still too Rep. for Warner at this point. Give it 10 years, and NC could very well be a swing state.
Dems have always tried to win NC, as they put Edwards on the ticket. They didn't get very far. Even Bush was able to crack 56% there.

Tennessee, where I live, could be competetive with Southern governor Warner on the ticket. there was a poll about 3 weeks ago, saying that Tennesseans want to see a Dem president 41-39. I think this was a Rausmusenn poll. Could be biased. Shelby county is trending Dem and has been for a while, which is why it seems from West TN that TN could be competitive. I hope not though:)

As for VA, definitely trending Dem. and will probably be shooed to the left more obviously because of Warner. in the future, definite swing state.

Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, SC) lost cause for Warner.

OK I'm done rambling. whadduya think?

BTW, does the research triangle consist of Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Chapel Hill? or is Charlotte one of them. I should know this, I have many friends in NC; beautiful state!!

[MarkWarner08]

I thought McCain would win CO and NV based on his Southwestern appeal. People vote for the top of the ticket, and since CO still leans REP, though it is trending your way, I don't see why McCain as a moderate would do worse than Bush.
I have been to Colorado many times in my life. people I run across there want the govt. to stay out of their lives as much as possible, which is more libertarian in nature.  It seems to me that CO is politically in the center-right on economics, and center-left on social issues. I think it would be a close race here, but I think McCain would still win by 4-5 points. Nevada would probably be closer as it is always.

However, I may be underestimating Richardson.

If Warner is so popular in rural areas as you say, why do you think he would lose WV? I still think WV is still Dem. at heart just like AR is. Given the right Dem, Warner, these would certainly be swing states.

Since Warner supports the 2nd amendment, and has no ties to some of the  uber-liberal Dems in Washington, I don't think the liberal label will stick to him, and so he wins WV. NC is still too Rep. for Warner at this point. Give it 10 years, and NC could very well be a swing state.
Dems have always tried to win NC, as they put Edwards on the ticket. They didn't get very far. Even Bush was able to crack 56% there.

Tennessee, where I live, could be competetive with Southern governor Warner on the ticket. there was a poll about 3 weeks ago, saying that Tennesseans want to see a Dem president 41-39. I think this was a Rausmusenn poll. Could be biased. Shelby county is trending Dem and has been for a while, which is why it seems from West TN that TN could be competitive. I hope not though:)

As for VA, definitely trending Dem. and will probably be shooed to the left more obviously because of Warner. in the future, definite swing state.

Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, SC) lost cause for Warner.

OK I'm done rambling. whadduya think?

BTW, does the research triangle consist of Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Chapel Hill? or is Charlotte one of them. I should know this, I have many friends in NC; beautiful state!!

Colorado goes Democratic in 2008.  Richardson will help boost the Hispanic turnout and accentuate the state's trend to the left.  Nevada will be very close but my gut tells me it goes Democratic.

I think West Virginia has gone the way of Kentucky and left the Democratic Party for the near future. They are both rural, conservative states that don't like environmentalism, something the Democratic Party is closely tied to. Only nominating Joe Manchin for VP could bring WV into the Democratic column.

The Research Triangle is Durham, Raleigh and Chapel Hill.  After some close reading of North Carolina, I've come to agree with you that its off the table for Democrats for until 2012 or 2016.

[TomC]

McCain is certainly a strong GOP candidate but Warner is moderate and an outsider. With Bush fatigue,  the fact that McCain really is an insider will hurt.

Warner/Richardson 336
McCain/Huckabee 202

[MarkWarner08]

I thought McCain would win CO and NV based on his Southwestern appeal. People vote for the top of the ticket, and since CO still leans REP, though it is trending your way, I don't see why McCain as a moderate would do worse than Bush.
I have been to Colorado many times in my life. people I run across there want the govt. to stay out of their lives as much as possible, which is more libertarian in nature.  It seems to me that CO is politically in the center-right on economics, and center-left on social issues. I think it would be a close race here, but I think McCain would still win by 4-5 points. Nevada would probably be closer as it is always.

However, I may be underestimating Richardson.

If Warner is so popular in rural areas as you say, why do you think he would lose WV? I still think WV is still Dem. at heart just like AR is. Given the right Dem, Warner, these would certainly be swing states.

Since Warner supports the 2nd amendment, and has no ties to some of the  uber-liberal Dems in Washington, I don't think the liberal label will stick to him, and so he wins WV. NC is still too Rep. for Warner at this point. Give it 10 years, and NC could very well be a swing state.
Dems have always tried to win NC, as they put Edwards on the ticket. They didn't get very far. Even Bush was able to crack 56% there.

Tennessee, where I live, could be competetive with Southern governor Warner on the ticket. there was a poll about 3 weeks ago, saying that Tennesseans want to see a Dem president 41-39. I think this was a Rausmusenn poll. Could be biased. Shelby county is trending Dem and has been for a while, which is why it seems from West TN that TN could be competitive. I hope not though:)

As for VA, definitely trending Dem. and will probably be shooed to the left more obviously because of Warner. in the future, definite swing state.

Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, SC) lost cause for Warner.

OK I'm done rambling. whadduya think?

BTW, does the research triangle consist of Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Chapel Hill? or is Charlotte one of them. I should know this, I have many friends in NC; beautiful state!!

Colorado goes Democratic in 2008.  Richardson will help boost the Hispanic turnout and accentuate the state's trend to the left.  Nevada will be very close but my gut tells me it goes Democratic.

I think West Virginia has gone the way of Kentucky and left the Democratic Party for the near future. They are both rural, conservative states that don't like environmentalism, something the Democratic Party is closely tied to. Only nominating Joe Manchin for VP could bring WV into the Democratic column.

The Research Triangle is Durham, Raleigh and Chapel Hill.  After some close reading of North Carolina, I've come to agree with you that its off the table for Democrats for until 2012 or 2016.

I think you may be right about West Virginia, which is good for the GOP (puts 5 Ev's into our basket. yay!) but I still think it's too early to call CO for Warner.

Now, I agree that if it's Allen vs. Warner, CO could very well go Dem.
Richardson will make a positive impact for Warner, and would certainly flip NM. However, with the strong candidacy of McCain, I'm not willing to give up CO, which btw is my favorite place in the world.

I guess to answer your question, McCain CAN outduke Richardson in the SW, but remember McCain's running against WARNER ... NOT Richardson.

I still think McCain can flip NH. W won it in 2000, and only lost it by 1 against Kerry. Just my opinion.

New Hampshire is trending Democratic -- time to put this one in the Warner column. Democrats will see their Governor reelected and Rep. Charlie Bass (R) may be headed to defeat.

In 2004, Colorado elected a Democratic State House and Senate and the elected a new Democratic congressman and Senator. In 2006, Colorado will likely elect a Democratic Governor and another new Democratic congresman.

Do you think Huckabee would help McCain carry Tennessee?

[auburntiger]

Well, Mark Warner '08, I really hope you are right about WV, which puts five more EV's into our basket

I'm still not willing to give CO however. lol. I guess it's just b/c I love the state so much. Richardson will make a positive impact on Warner, but keep in mind that McCain is running against WARNER, NOT RICHARDSON.

I guess to answer your question before, McCAin will outduke Richardson, but it won't have anything to do with Richardson, it'll be because of Warner's lack or experience, which would be an accurate claim.

I think if Richardson was on the top of the ticket, CO would certainly be more likely to go DEM, but McCain is the LAST Republican I see losing the state.

[auburntiger]

I thought McCain would win CO and NV based on his Southwestern appeal. People vote for the top of the ticket, and since CO still leans REP, though it is trending your way, I don't see why McCain as a moderate would do worse than Bush.
I have been to Colorado many times in my life. people I run across there want the govt. to stay out of their lives as much as possible, which is more libertarian in nature.  It seems to me that CO is politically in the center-right on economics, and center-left on social issues. I think it would be a close race here, but I think McCain would still win by 4-5 points. Nevada would probably be closer as it is always.

However, I may be underestimating Richardson.

If Warner is so popular in rural areas as you say, why do you think he would lose WV? I still think WV is still Dem. at heart just like AR is. Given the right Dem, Warner, these would certainly be swing states.

Since Warner supports the 2nd amendment, and has no ties to some of the  uber-liberal Dems in Washington, I don't think the liberal label will stick to him, and so he wins WV. NC is still too Rep. for Warner at this point. Give it 10 years, and NC could very well be a swing state.
Dems have always tried to win NC, as they put Edwards on the ticket. They didn't get very far. Even Bush was able to crack 56% there.

Tennessee, where I live, could be competetive with Southern governor Warner on the ticket. there was a poll about 3 weeks ago, saying that Tennesseans want to see a Dem president 41-39. I think this was a Rausmusenn poll. Could be biased. Shelby county is trending Dem and has been for a while, which is why it seems from West TN that TN could be competitive. I hope not though:)

As for VA, definitely trending Dem. and will probably be shooed to the left more obviously because of Warner. in the future, definite swing state.

Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, SC) lost cause for Warner.

OK I'm done rambling. whadduya think?

BTW, does the research triangle consist of Winston-Salem, Greensboro, and Chapel Hill? or is Charlotte one of them. I should know this, I have many friends in NC; beautiful state!!

Colorado goes Democratic in 2008.  Richardson will help boost the Hispanic turnout and accentuate the state's trend to the left.  Nevada will be very close but my gut tells me it goes Democratic.

I think West Virginia has gone the way of Kentucky and left the Democratic Party for the near future. They are both rural, conservative states that don't like environmentalism, something the Democratic Party is closely tied to. Only nominating Joe Manchin for VP could bring WV into the Democratic column.

The Research Triangle is Durham, Raleigh and Chapel Hill.  After some close reading of North Carolina, I've come to agree with you that its off the table for Democrats for until 2012 or 2016.

I think you may be right about West Virginia, which is good for the GOP (puts 5 Ev's into our basket. yay!) but I still think it's too early to call CO for Warner.

Now, I agree that if it's Allen vs. Warner, CO could very well go Dem.
Richardson will make a positive impact for Warner, and would certainly flip NM. However, with the strong candidacy of McCain, I'm not willing to give up CO, which btw is my favorite place in the world.

I guess to answer your question, McCain CAN outduke Richardson in the SW, but remember McCain's running against WARNER ... NOT Richardson.

I still think McCain can flip NH. W won it in 2000, and only lost it by 1 against Kerry. Just my opinion.

New Hampshire is trending Democratic -- time to put this one in the Warner column. Democrats will see their Governor reelected and Rep. Charlie Bass (R) may be headed to defeat.

In 2004, Colorado elected a Democratic State House and Senate and the elected a new Democratic congressman and Senator. In 2006, Colorado will likely elect a Democratic Governor and another new Democratic congresman.

Do you think Huckabee would help McCain carry Tennessee?

Well TN does lean Republican, so even if Huckabee wasn't on the ticket, I think TN would be very close, but still go to McCain; kind of like MN for the Dems.

[Colin]

I could vote for either and really I would be undecided. I really like both Warner and Richardson and McCain is one of the better candidates that the Republicans can put up. I would have to await the debates on this one.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I could vote for either and really I would be undecided. I really like both Warner and Richardson and McCain is one of the better candidates that the Republicans can put up. I would have to await the debates on this one.

I'm undecided, too.  I voted for McCain, but I wouldn't mind Warner whatsoever.

If Warner were the nominee, he could even put Oklahoma a tad more competitive.  We are not extremely blood red like a lot of people think we are.  In fact, I think we are starting to trend back to the left just a tad.  McCain would still take it in all likelihood, but Warner would make it a little more competitive.  McCain would get no more than 54%, any other more conservative candidate on the Republicans (or more liberal Democrat) would give the Republican 60%.

[Brandon H]

Richardson impressed me a while back when he declared a state of emergency because of lack of border enforcement by our current administration. While I doubt I would vote for him, he is near the top of my choices among Democrats. But as someone mentioned, people pay more attention to the Pres. Candidate and not the VP.

[Dr. Cynic]

This would be a hell of a tough choice. Both are qualified, I like them both, but Warner's policies are closer to mine.

It would come down to the wire for me.

[Nym90]

I would vote for the fantastic Warner/ Richardson ticket easily, though McCain would be more tolerable than most GOP candidates.

[Rob]

I vote for the centrist over the right-winger, of course.

[Frodo]

I like both tickets immensely, but with Mark Warner as the presidential nominee I would vote Democratic in this instance. 

If the nominee was either Hillary Clinton, Al Gore, or Russ Feingold, on the other hand, I would definitely consider voting for John McCain or Mike Huckabee.

[Lincoln Republican]

First of all, great analysis by MarkWarner08 in your opening ramarks.

I am going to pick McCain.  Personally, I believe Warner's pesidential credentials, or perceived presidential credentials, are vastly overblown.  I simply do not believe America will put national security and the nation's future into the hands of a one term Governor from Virginia.

Both Vice Presidential candidates are credible, and do not detract from the ticket.  When it comes right down to it, people vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom.  Vice Presidential candidates tend not to have a great influence on how people ultimately vote.  Richardson, although a good VP pick for Warner, is not going to swing the southwest to the Democrats with McCain as the Republican nominee.  McCain as the Republican Presidential nominee will trump Richardson as the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee in the region.

McCain's reputation and experience will win the day.

Wisconsin has been teetering on the brink for the Republicans for the past two elections, and McCain will be the one to bring it into the Republican column.

Personally, although not reflected on the map, I give McCain a good chance in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire as well.   

McCain/Huckabee          273
Warner/Richardson        265

[auburntiger]

First of all, great analysis by MarkWarner08 in your opening ramarks.

I am going to pick McCain.  Personally, I believe Warner's pesidential credentials, or perceived presidential credentials, are vastly overblown.  I simply do not believe America will put national security and the nation's future into the hands of a one term Governor from Virginia.

Both Vice Presidential candidates are credible, and do not detract from the ticket.  When it comes right down to it, people vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom.  Vice Presidential candidates tend not to have a great influence on how people ultimately vote.  Richardson, although a good VP pick for Warner, is not going to swing the southwest to the Democrats with McCain as the Republican nominee.  McCain as the Republican Presidential nominee will trump Richardson as the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee in the region.

McCain's reputation and experience will win the day.

Wisconsin has been teetering on the brink for the Republicans for the past two elections, and McCain will be the one to bring it into the Republican column.

Personally, although not reflected on the map, I give McCain a good chance in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire as well.   

McCain/Huckabee          273
Warner/Richardson        265

I agree with this map. No dooubt McCain still holds on to CO and NV. Though i'm divided in my opinoin on how WV would vote. Mark Warner '08 thinks it's a lost cause for Dems like KY, where I still think it would be winnable for Warner

[Lincoln Republican]

I agree if Warner is the Democratic candidate, West Virginia is definitely in play for the Democrats.

Warner, from what I understand, is not a radical anti gun Democrat, and as well, he is not on the far left, but more moderate, in the social field.

Coming from the neighboring state of Virginia, and given West Virginia's historic voting record for supporting Democrats at the Presidential level, I think Warner is one Democrat who can win West Virginia.

A more leftist Democrat would not likely win West Virginia.   

[Lincoln Republican]

With reference to my map above, where I stated

"Personally, although not reflected on the map, I give McCain a good chance in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire as well."

I will add to this that McCain also has an excellent chance of winning Oregon.

I would also like to add that if the Democratic ticket does not include Bill Richardson, that McCain will also win New Mexico.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think it would be fair to say that without some SW influence - McCain would take CO, AZ (duh), NM and NV out of the equation.

[opebo]

Here is a better map:

[Tender Branson]

I would vote for Warner/Richardson, alltough i´m saying that both tickets are really appealing for the respective sides. Warner as a centrist can attract moderate democratic votes as well as republican ones from the rural and suburban areas anywere in the East and Mid-West, especially Ohio, WV and Virginia and could also get in striking distance in MO and AR, but with Huckabee on McCains side it will be hard to get them. With Bill Richardson at his side he also may capture some western states like NM and NV with CO a real battleground in 2008. McCain on the other side also has an amazing chance to get the states won by Bush because of his appeal to Indy voters. One thing is clear: Mark Warner needs to get experience on foreign affairs or he will get demolished in the primaries or later in the Presidential campaign. But all in all 2 well balanced tickets.

[MarkWarner08]

Here is a better map:

Why does Iowa goe Democratic, while Wisconsin goes Republican? Iowa went Republican 50%-49% in 2004, while Wisconsin went Democratic by the same margin. While both states are trending Republican, Iowa is trending  in that direction faster. I would say Iowa goes  to McCain, Wisconsin goes to Warner.

[MarkWarner08]

First of all, great analysis by MarkWarner08 in your opening ramarks.

I am going to pick McCain.  Personally, I believe Warner's pesidential credentials, or perceived presidential credentials, are vastly overblown.  I simply do not believe America will put national security and the nation's future into the hands of a one term Governor from Virginia.

Both Vice Presidential candidates are credible, and do not detract from the ticket.  When it comes right down to it, people vote for the top of the ticket, not the bottom.  Vice Presidential candidates tend not to have a great influence on how people ultimately vote.  Richardson, although a good VP pick for Warner, is not going to swing the southwest to the Democrats with McCain as the Republican nominee.  McCain as the Republican Presidential nominee will trump Richardson as the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee in the region.

McCain's reputation and experience will win the day.

Wisconsin has been teetering on the brink for the Republicans for the past two elections, and McCain will be the one to bring it into the Republican column.

Personally, although not reflected on the map, I give McCain a good chance in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire as well.   

McCain/Huckabee          273
Warner/Richardson        265

Winfield, do you think Warner has a chance of beating McCain in Colorado? That state seems to be very similar to Wisconsin -- they're  both formerly safe states that have become highly competitive.