🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

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The Bundestag approved the Election Review Committee for a rerun of the federal election in 431 Berlin districts - subject to a ruling by the Constitutional Court.

Furthermore, parliament passed a bill that lowers the minimum voting age for EU elections from 18 to 16, against the opposition of CDU, CSU and AfD.

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Constituencies isn't the ideal translation - that should be used for e.g. the Wahlkreis - 'polling disticts' or 'precincts' would be better and avoid confusion.

I know the difference between "districts" and "constituencies", as you can see in my second post regarding this topic. It was just a slip. Sorry!

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So we are in the situation where if the rerun and subsequent substitution - cause that's what it kinda is, substituting new results in the bad areas alongside the good ones from last time - cause Linke to lose a seat then everything changes. Now since the reelection is limited, and voters will probably know Linke's precarious position and opt not to disrupt it, things for them are unlikely to drastically change. But the possibility is there.

Here is an interactive map that shows which districts are affected by the rerun.
Citizens of 12 constituencies will partly have to vote again.
Mainly constituencies Nos. 76 (Berlin-Pankow) and 77 (Berlin-Reinickendorf) are affected, which were won by a Green and a CDU politician, respectively. The two constituencies won by the Linke, 84 (Berlin-Treptow – Köpenick) and 86 (Berlin-Lichtenberg), remained untouched by the Election Day mess, though. Therefore, it's highly unlikely that Gysi or Lötzsch will lose their direct mandates, thus triggering an expulsion of the Linke from the Bundestag.

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No reply? No Thank-you post? No like? No reaction at all??? Okaaay...

Obviously, no one has read my post and therefore not seen the map I had linked.
So, here's a screenshot of it. The color blobs denote the precincts where the federal election is to be rerun; different colors symbolize different constituencies. To be exact, the polling districts are shown in this map. There is also a map for the postal voting districts, but it basically looks the same.

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Whelp, any chance the federal election is expanded after the ruling now on the state contest? Probably zilch right?

I'm not that sure about that. The final decision is still subject to a ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court.
I can't see it happening that the entire state election plus all twelve borough board elections have to be repeated, whereas only a fifth of Berliners have the right to elect their representatives to the Bundestag again. Imagine you used to live in a failed precinct and you have moved to a different, perhaps even adjacent precinct in the meantime, so that your vote will never find itself in the 20th Bundestag.
Further, I could even imagine that hardliners from all parties might move to one of those 431 precincts, thus creating a "Bleeding Kansas" situation in our failed capital.

Oh, FWIW, February 12, 2023, is reported to be the new election date.

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Good news for the Greens and the numerous Antifa movements; bad news for all tax-payers:

In December, both chambers of the legislative power passed a bill that lowered the minimum voting age for EU elections from 18 to 16.

Bundestag President Bärbel Bas subsequently initiated a discussion about if the voting age for Bundestag elections should be lowered also.

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Very good news for Germany: There is a new entry that debuted atop the ZDF Barometer politician charts: our new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. It is also amazing to see that Atlas' favorite German politician ACAB seems to keep on losing her once enormous popularity.



Meanwhile, the Ampel has lost its majority in the polls:

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When I say "grand coalition" I mean either CDU/SPD or CDU/Green since now the Greens are a "big party" similar in size to the SPP at the federal level.

Wouldn't it be very difficult for either the SPD or the Greens to form a government with the CDU when the CDU is let by a rightwing fanatic like Merz who is on the "wrong" side of virtually every single social or cultural issue and I believe is a bit of a climate change denier? Could there be a hypothetical situation  where the only way the CDU could form a government with either the SPD or the Greens would be if they ditched Merz and proposed another chancellor who was more palatable?

Merz initiated the black-green "pizza connection" in the 90's, along with Cem Özdemir among others. Thus, he should be "palatable" to the Greens.
One oughtn't disregard PUTP's archfoe Governor Söder, btw, who was already the chancellor "of the hearts" prior to the last federal election. He's seeking re-election in the largest German state this fall, and if he manages to receive a majority of votes, he will be Merz's greatest party rival.

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The black-green "pizza connection" of the nineties was initiated by people like Laschet, Röttgen, Altmeier, van Klaeden and the likes. People that where young at the time and at the left or center of the CDU -and some outspoken "Realo" Greens of course, like Matthias Berninger, Cem Özdemir, Volker Beck etc.

Friedrich Merz wasn't part of it and was staunchly anti-Green at the time.

Perhaps you're right. I thought saw a picture of Merz and Özdemir in a documentary on the pizza connection. Maybe that's owed to the Mandela effect.

Speaking of glyphosate Berninger: It's astonishing how many Greens from the "Realo" wing commit sins against their own alleged principles by working as lobbyists, such as Marianne Tritz, who used to earn her money as a tobacco lobbyist after she had been voted out of the Bundestag.

Another honorable member of the original "pizza connection" is Antje Hermenau, a very conservative, anti-PC, anti-COVID-19 measures, pro-Russian Green B'90 member, who has been a welcome guest on several political talkshows recently.

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Just a quick reminder: New elections will take place in 455 (out of 2,256) Berlin voting precincts tomorrow, as I told you before; some certain Green Germany avatar once accused me of deficient reading comprehension, claiming only the Berlin state elections would be rerun.



The new elections look unlikely to have any effect on the party composition of the revised Bundestag; only some members could be exchanged for a member of the same party.

The Communists are out of the woods, as Gysi and Lötzsch are going to retain their direct mandates anyway; a loss of one or both of them would have entailed eradicating the whole Linke (and BSW) delegation from the Bundestag (except for the one or two remaining direct seat winners, of course).
CDU Belin top candidate Monika Grütters, former Berlin mayor Michael Müller (SPD), and Stefan Gelbhaar (Grüne) might lose their direct seat, but they are nevertheless likely to remain in the Bundestag, as they are secured via fail-safe list slot.
Vulnerable are those politicians who entered the Bundestag via low list slots, especially since the expected low turnout will entail an allocation of fewer seats to Berlin's city proper related to the 2021 election.

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And: will the ballot look the same as in 2021?

Yes, like in last year's state election. Both elections have been annihilated, just like a marriage, as though they'd never occurred; thus the very same candidates are running again, both for the list and for the direct seats.

"New election" is probably not an accurate translation, btw; "repeat election" may be more accurate, but I don't know if that term exists in the English language, though.

The striking contrast between the black and green colors on the election map reveals tellingly that Berlin is divided into two again: into bourgeois outskirts, and into a woke urban core. The new "wall" where traditional values and modern lifestyle clash is this time the Berlin Ringbahn.

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Here you can compare the results in different ways

https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/wahl-wiederholung-bundestag-2024-berlin-karte-historische-ergebnisse-wahlkreisergebnisse-stimmbezirke/

WTF? 😳 Does MAE recently propagate via mitosis, or what? 😨

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Today, btw, marks the last time that a federal election was held on basis of a democratic electoral law.

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The Bundestag has shrunk to "only" 735 members, after FDP Berlin General Secretary Lars Lindemann's seat has been completely eradicated, mainly owing to the very low turnout
Three further members lost their mandates: Green state party chairwoman Nina Stahr, Ana-Maria Trasnea (SPD), and Pascal Meiser (Linke). However, their seats have been allocated to other party members, albeit from other states (NRW, Lower Saxony, Hesse).

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From start to finish, totally unserious way to run an election. It seems obviously ridiculous and unfair to me that an already elected MP can just randomly lose their seat. But hey, Procedure was followed, I guess.

A similar incident almost occurred in 2005, when the federal election had to be postponed in constituency Dresden I owing to the death of its NPD direct candidate Kerstin Lorenz.

Statisticians calculated an recalculated how the results of the by-election could affect the composition of the Bundestag on the basis of the September 18 election. Remember also that the electoral law at that time didn't provide any levelling seats, only overhang seats. As a consequence, an overly good second-vote result for the CDU in Dresden I would lead to the erasure of one of their overhang seats. Constitutional experts therefore suggested that the ballot boxes be kept closed until the Dresdeners have finished casting their votes, which didn't happen in the end.

As a result, myriads of CDU voters gave the Christian Democratic direct candidate Andrea Lämmel their first vote, while they cast their second vote for the FDP, which effected a massive vote-splitting: Lämmel won his direct mandate, of course, whereas the SPD won the second vote of that district due to the vote splitting between CDU and FDP; and we all now how much Dresden is known for being an SPD stronghold.. 😏
What's even more stunning: While FDP direct candidate Peggy Bellmann received a mere 4.7 % of all first votes, her party got 16.6 % of all second votes. lol
And the moral of this story: The CDU eventually didn't lose one of their seats.

Overall the results aren't as terrible as I expected.

#Realitätsverweigerung

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Source: tax-financed state TV

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Seems like the graph is is manipulated. Most likely by some Twitter AfD trolls who want to force the narrative how mean the press treats them. They just love victimhood.

I am not 100% sure if that graph is real, but "accidental" manipulation incorrect indication of bar charts has occurred before, e.g. on your local state TV channel:

https://twitter.com/OERRBlog/status/1761447929431179686

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Could "President Johnson" or "Middle-aged Europe" translate the following article, which is currently going viral on Xwitter and stirring an upset among liberals, into English, please?

https://twitter.com/MaennerMedia/status/1767633902682656893?s=20

https://www.maenner.media/gesellschaft/politik/umfragehammer-rechtsruck-in-der-schwulen-szene/

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Thank you for paraphrasing the article - whoever you are...

That survey is certainly not representative, granted, but the trend is shockingly clear, and it shows once again that certain "protected™" groups that the Green Bolshewokes claim to protect don't feel protected by them whatsoever. Your party needs to finally grasp that most homosexual men are more like your Antifa comrade PUTP's arch foe Ali Utlu, and less like Queeeer™ Commissioner of the Federal Government, Sven Lehmann. That survey had better give your party a pause for thought, no matter how representative it may be, plus the question arises why the poll yielded the results it yielded. Perhaps the following clip might shed light on the cause of the subversive voting behavior of your party's reputedly loyal voters:

https://twitter.com/sewlok85555/status/1768193691481444722?s=20