🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Berlin 2021 Bundestag repeat election in ca. 500 polling stations today.

This is how the 500 precincts voted in 2021:

27% Greens
22% SPD
14% CDU
12% Linke
  9% FDP
  7% AfD
  9% Others

The Greenies did much better than the Greenies in Berlin proper, the Linke slightly better. The SPD, CDU and AfD did worse than in Berlin proper, the FDP had the same result.

Turnout: 77%

My guess for today's repeat election:

25% Greens (-2)
24% CDU (+10)
13% SPD (-9)
13% AfD (+6)
10% Linke (-2)
  4% FDP (-5)
11% Others (+2)

Turnout: 54% (-23)

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

7-8 percent of German voters would vote for BSW right now, but BSW is not on the ballot today for the Berlin repeat vote of 2021.

I wonder how these 7-8 percentages will go today. Are they voting for the Linke in large numbers? Or will the Greens and SPD also benefit from BSW's absence? A larger part of BSW also seems to originate from the AfD, who lost a few points support in recent weeks because of the protests against the far-right extremism scene. In theory, the AfD could keep some voters today who otherwise would vote BSW, but if these voters are abandoning the AfD for BSW it is more likely they will go to other parties instead, mainly CDU and "others" ...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Polls have just closed for the Bundestag "repeat election" in Berlin.

There was no exit poll and I cannot find a results page on the Landeswahlleiter website.

I am just following RBB24 and ARD/ZDF right now, but it will surely take a few hours for results.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Result page:

https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BU2024/AFSPRAES/btw/index.html

[Oryxslayer]

Result page:

https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BU2024/AFSPRAES/btw/index.html

Disappointing that this lacks a tracker on its own separate from the 2021 votes in those areas not effected by the the re-vote. At least I can't spot it with results now coming in.

[Lief 🗽]

Doesn’t seem like there’s been that much of a shift compared to 2021?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1756754692183326883?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6y...

[President Johnson]

Doesn’t seem like there’s been that much of a shift compared to 2021?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1756754692183326883?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6y...

Big if true. I actually expected SPD to tank badly.

[Lief 🗽]

Doesn’t seem like there’s been that much of a shift compared to 2021?

Big if true. I actually expected SPD to tank badly.

Yeah this looks completely different from the polls. Odd.

[palandio]

Doesn’t seem like there’s been that much of a shift compared to 2021?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1756754692183326883?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6y...

Big if true. I actually expected SPD to tank badly.

Almost certainly not true, or a misrepresentation of some notional intermediate results (i.e. what remains when you subtract the 2021 results of the re-voting precincts from the total result in 2021).

DER SPIEGEL reports (with 79% of the re-voting precincts counted):
Greens 28.2% (+1.0)
SPD 14.7% (-7.7)
CDU 19.8% (+6.0)
Left 12.9% (+1.0)
FDP 3.3% (-5.7)
AfD 12.9% (+5.8 ).

Seems closer to reality. But let's see.

[M0096]

Europe Elects results include also precincts without re-vote.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Yes.
In Pankow (86% repeat) the SPD losses (and AfD gains) are much bigger (around 6.5%p):

https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BU2024/AFSPRAES/btw/ergebnisse_wahlkreis_76.html

[Oryxslayer]

Doesn’t seem like there’s been that much of a shift compared to 2021?

Big if true. I actually expected SPD to tank badly.

Yeah this looks completely different from the polls. Odd.

Those are the results from the federal website which includes the ~75% of polls from 2021. Legally, that is the correct way to count things. You subtract the redo polling sites and re-enter them as the new votes come. The new votes get pasted into the old results.

However, as I expressed above, this way may be the correct way legally, but is the incorrect way analytically. The analytical way is to look at only the re-vote polls, which thankfully it appear some places are doing. Unsurprisingly, we see the movement from federal polls in that sample, just with the Greens not really changing cause the Ringbahn is their loyal stronghold. This has already led to one direct mandate flipping from SPD to Greens, because the Union is pulling the SPD below the Green total, and perhaps a second as well. If the full city was allowed to re-vote, I would not be suprised if it looked like the 2023 City elections.

Doesn’t seem like there’s been that much of a shift compared to 2021?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1756754692183326883?s=46&t=o2RmfeV6y...

Big if true. I actually expected SPD to tank badly.

Almost certainly not true, or a misrepresentation of some notional intermediate results (i.e. what remains when you subtract the 2021 results of the re-voting precincts from the total result in 2021).

DER SPIEGEL reports (with 79% of the re-voting precincts counted):
Greens 28.2% (+1.0)
SPD 14.7% (-7.7)
CDU 19.8% (+6.0)
Left 12.9% (+1.0)
FDP 3.3% (-5.7)
AfD 12.9% (+5.8 ).

Seems closer to reality. But let's see.

At 85% it's apparently:

Greens 27.9% (+0.7)
SPD 14.8% (-7.6)
CDU 20.2% (+6.4)
Left 12.7% (+0.8 )
FDP 3.3% (-5.7)
AfD 12.7% (+5.6 ).

[Keep Calm and ...]

Here you can compare the results in different ways

https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/wahl-wiederholung-bundestag-2024-berlin-karte-historische-ergebnisse-wahlkreisergebnisse-stimmbezirke/

[kaoras]

The dead cat bounce for Linke is funny.

[Oryxslayer]

With only 6 polling sites yet to report, aka over 99% counted, the party vote stands at:

Greens 27.7% (+0.5)
CDU 20.6% (+6.9)
SPD 14.6% (-7.8 )
Linke 12.6% (+0.7)
AfD 12.6% (+5.6)
FDP 3.3% (-5.8 )
Others 8.6% (-0.1)

The swing between the  Union and SPD is roughly in line with current polling. The rest though I think can't really be interpreted much from. For some this is because we are only looking at a small sample of Berlin only. This is especially the case for the Greens, who have some of their most solid and concentrated voter constituencies up. For others it is because we lack any place for potential BSW voters to concentrate their choice.

[afleitch]

Randomly in Berlin today

[Middle-aged Europe]

Former AfD MP Birgit Malsack-Winkemann, who is curently imprisoned for plotting to overthrow the government with members of the Reichsbürger movement (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_German_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_plot), has managed to improve her 2021 result in Steglitz-Zehlendorf by 0.2%, and has won 5.5% of the vote in her district.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Randomly in Berlin today

sh**tty weather, huh?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here you can compare the results in different ways

https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/wahl-wiederholung-bundestag-2024-berlin-karte-historische-ergebnisse-wahlkreisergebnisse-stimmbezirke/

WTF? 😳 Does MAE recently propagate via mitosis, or what? 😨

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Today, btw, marks the last time that a federal election was held on basis of a democratic electoral law.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The Bundestag has shrunk to "only" 735 members, after FDP Berlin General Secretary Lars Lindemann's seat has been completely eradicated, mainly owing to the very low turnout
Three further members lost their mandates: Green state party chairwoman Nina Stahr, Ana-Maria Trasnea (SPD), and Pascal Meiser (Linke). However, their seats have been allocated to other party members, albeit from other states (NRW, Lower Saxony, Hesse).

[afleitch]

Randomly in Berlin today

sh**tty weather, huh?

I'm from Glasgow. It's almost clement.

[Estrella]

tfw a Die Linke politician refuses to take up her seat because Die Linke isn't Putinist enough for her

Linke politician Buchholz does not want to take up a mandate in the Bundestag. She cites the Left Party's failures in terms of peace policy and in the fight against anti-Muslim racism as the reason

The Hessian left-wing politician Christine Buchholz won a Bundestag mandate in the Berlin repeat election on Sunday . She could therefore enter parliament. However, Buchholz does not want to accept the mandate and justifies this with criticism of the political line of the Left Party and its parliamentary group. The Hessian left-wing politician Jörg Cezanne will now take her place in the Bundestag.

"The developments of the last few years have repeatedly brought me into conflict with the majority line of the party and the parliamentary group." This concerns, in their opinion, an overly defensive approach to criticism of NATO and the German role in the war over Ukraine as well as "their failure to criticize German support for Israel's war in Gaza."

In the repeat election in Berlin, the Left absolutely lost votes due to the lower voter turnout compared to 2021. Because of the complicated calculation of the mandates, the Hessian state list of the Left gains a mandate at the expense of the Berlin state list. The economic expert Pascal Meiser is therefore losing his seat. The next place on the Hessian state list is held by Jörg Cezanne, who sat for the Left in the Bundestag until 2021 and has since been an employee in the Bundestag office of the Left Chairwoman Janine Wissler.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

From start to finish, totally unserious way to run an election. It seems obviously ridiculous and unfair to me that an already elected MP can just randomly lose their seat. But hey, Procedure was followed, I guess.

[President Johnson]

Overall the results aren't as terrible as I expected. Kevin Kühnert narrowly defended his district, which is good for him (I didn't like him as Juso leader back in the day, but he moderated over the last few years).

Disgusting though that former AfD MP Birgit Malsack-Winkeman got even 0.2% more than in 2021, who is currently imprisoned for participation in the attempted coup under "Prinz" Reuß.