🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

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Will like her. At this point, many voters have not even heard of her. With Merkel, it was the same.

These preference polls are completely meaningless (aside from a few high-info voters, it’s basically about name recognition). Wait until she is nominated and regularly appears on the campaign trail.

Bad take ✔️
Denial of reality ✔️
Deeply sexist stance ✔️
Contempt for non-Green voters (i.e. tax-payers) ✔️
Trolling ✔️
Mi mi mi mi mi ✔️

You're living proof that Antifa fascists sound, think, and argue exactly like their brown brethren from QAnus.

Friendly reminder to all non-Germans on this board: Don't take this user or anything he writes seriously. He is the only German that thunks the FDP were a left-wing party, the AfD were a socialist party and [Süddeutsche[/i] and Die Zeit were right-wing newspapers. He is moreover the only person who perceives Anja Reschke, Georg Restle, Mario Sixtus and Tarik Tesfu as competent as serious journalists...
And that's because it's what they taught him at his green-esoteric Rudolf Steiner school.

Moreover, I deeply dislike Merkel, but comparing and even equating an intelligent, hard-working and well-mannered woman like her with an utter loser like Baerbock is simply disgusting and uncalled-for.
Merkel has achieved so much in her private life before entering politics, she was an outstanding, self-disciplined pupil, she studied a genuine science (unlike Baerbock), she had a job, worked hard for it and paid taxes (unlike Baerbock), she was part of a revolutionary movement that tore down a wall and a left-wing fascists regime, which Baerbock wants to revive.
Moreover, Merkel asserted herself, prevailed and gained acceptance as a Protestant, East-German, child-free, remarried woman within a deeply misogynic, Catholic and mostly Southern party. Baerbock hasn't achieved anything in her life, she is perceived as arrogant, snobbish, uneducated, and intellectually unable to cope. She just happens to be a member of a misandristic party at the right time, which enabled her a taxpayer-funded political career despite being completely and thoroughly and utterly incompetent and workshy. Without her party and without the existence of parliaments she would dwell underneath a bridge and wail over the world and her life being unfair to her.
If Baerbock really somehow manages to become chancellor*in - and that is a genuine imminent peril I truly dread - she would be going to step down after a week due to suffering "burnout" and enjoy her immensely generous pension, financed by us tax-payers.

Since destroying your sexist Antifa bubble is fun, here are some videos by Tim Heldt (over 1M subscribers) destroying feminazism and Gendersternchen, wherefore he regularly receives death threats from your Antifa comrades because he dares to tell the truth about feminazism and because is intellectually superior to you blobs.
(I could also post Holger's videos, but you already know them and therefore regularly insult him for producing and uploading them.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1hDENSNGYPo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9ZKbhO9NRY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rR5VQw9EVp8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zpfkCncPco
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e35D0lu_mCU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBkZmoqNTbk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHQQw1IDgZU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBDlgwXROlA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzyPKUK2yGQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrBfAjE-QPY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QOfx5v1Wcw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNUXp6cU3Oc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ab8tQ0cK7tE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nP9nyG-PAIQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D44E1E4NNUQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2C183EVJUw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_NgK4g42RU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jrrIs-KiMo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLROWvIcSJI

I know that you already told me that you refuse to read any articles or watch any clips that don't confirm your world view, but maybe you like this article by your favorite Antifa newspaper taz, which claims that even trees can be sexist, too.

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Sahra Wagenknecht runs for the top spot of the NRW LINKE state list for the federal election, while many of her comrades prompt her to renounce her candidacy because she dared to criticize Antifa movements such as Unteilbar, Black Lives Matter, or Fridays for Future as self-righteous in her new book, while allegedly defending the Querdenken movement.

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What would you say are the chances of a Grune-SPD-Die Linke coalition right now? Because it seems very possible if CDU doesn't get out of its slump and they can work together that Germany would have its first left wing government in a while.

It really depends on who the CDU/CSU nominates as their chancellor candidate.
If they chose Laschet, there will might be a numerical green-red-red majority.
However, that will most likely not translate into a R₂G coalition, as the  foreign policy goals of the Left differ widely from those of the SPD and Greens. Plus, I don't think Vice Chancellor and SPD vice-chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz harbors way too much unsurmountable aversion for the Left, after some certain domestic terrorist group, whose name I am not allowed to mention on Atlas, prompted Hamburg to descend into civil war during the G20 summit during his tenure as Hamburg Mayor.

If they chose Söder, the parties will most likely form a black-green or black-yellow government.

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What would an Ethiopia coalition look like in practice? What would its priorities be?

I never heard that name for a coalition, but you certainly refer to a inverted Ampel coalition, i.e. a green-yellow-red or green-red-yellow coalition.
Honestly, I don't know. 🤷🏻‍♂️ We've never had a precedential 'Ethiopia coalition' on the state level, or more precisely, we just missed such a precedent after BW Governor Winfried Kretschmann just recently decided to thwart that idea. 🙅🏻‍♂️
But I guess t would most likely be like a red-green coalition during the Schröder era, just with an emphasis on stopping climate change and insect death, plus the expansion and the upgrading of the digital infrastructure.

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Wonderful results, let's hope Söder can get the party back on track, without weak wishy-washy politics.

So, once and for all, those two polls finally made it clear: Certain Green extremists prefer Laschet to Söder just because they know that their party's odds of emerging victorious out of the federal election raise significantly with the former as CDU chancellor candidate, even if they vehemently deny this fact (like they deny all facts of the world)... 

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Friedrich Merz just can't let it go. He just announced his candidacy for a Bundestag seat. The "problem": There is already an incumbent CDU politician, Patrick Sensburg, running for reelection in the district he seeks to represent. And Sensburg isn't just a backbencher. Furthermore, it's unclear what larger goal he has with the candidacy. It will definitely lead to a contested convention vote for the CDU candidacy in the district.

This comes after his "offer" to become Minister of Economics right after losing the CDU leadership to Armin Laschet in the current Merkel government, in which Peter Altmaier already holds the post. The ridiculous move back then was immediately rejected by Merkel and Laschet. The guy is a real trainwreck.

The CDU Hochsauerlandkreis will decide today who their candidate will be. Hopefully Merz loses again.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=439320

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Friedrich Merz just can't let it go. He just announced his candidacy for a Bundestag seat. The "problem": There is already an incumbent CDU politician, Patrick Sensburg, running for reelection in the district he seeks to represent. And Sensburg isn't just a backbencher. Furthermore, it's unclear what larger goal he has with the candidacy. It will definitely lead to a contested convention vote for the CDU candidacy in the district.

This comes after his "offer" to become Minister of Economics right after losing the CDU leadership to Armin Laschet in the current Merkel government, in which Peter Altmaier already holds the post. The ridiculous move back then was immediately rejected by Merkel and Laschet. The guy is a real trainwreck.

The CDU Hochsauerlandkreis will decide today who their candidate will be. Hopefully Merz loses again.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=439320

Nope. Merz emerged the clear winner out of the contest. (68%) 😒

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I didn't understand why did the CDU announced its Spitzenkandidat at the same day of the Greens.

That was fully unintentional ... that Söder didn't back down after the decision of the party presidium last week created a dynamic of an open exchange of blows that spiraled out of control, gave bad publicity and weakened Laschet by the hour. So he and his allies pulled out the full stop with the final vote in the CDU national Committee, after the deadline both candidates had agreed on ("We will find a solution until or at least at the weekend") had already expired. Obviously, they did not find a solution earlier than that and waiting some other news cycles would have left more damage for them.

I hope the Union will have decided by the next election that their chancellor candidate is to be found through a joint primary.

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These results out of Bayern would indicate ca. a 28-24 Union vs. Green lead in Germany right now.

I wonder how the results for the Bavarian Landtag election would be if it took place at the same day as the Bundestag election. It would have look like a West Virginian (or Arkansas 2008). The Söder supporters will be the PUMA's of the German elections.

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https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1439684518210899972

Scholz reacting to Laschet speaking:

https://twitter.com/PhilipLeButt/status/1439695413460848644

https://twitter.com/simondnhr/status/1439675827726213120

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https://live.daserste.de

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Anyone wanting to mention the cyber attack on the Federal Bureau of Statistics?

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Do you think Böhmermann's extremely radical politicking for the Greens and the SED (including that subtle witch-hunt against Mockridge) in both his last broadcasts will help those two parties or rather hurt them?

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Since nobody wanted to talk about the bellwethers I suggested, what about constituencies Nos. 1 and 15?

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Die Linke definitely has its place in the political spectrum, but they should get rid of the Maduro apologists on their left fringe. Maybe it would help if they dropped out of parliament. There are reasonable people in the reformist wing of the party.

Something I've noticed is that a lot of polls have had Die Linke near the threshold, but I haven't seen any that have had them at or below the threshold. Is there any real sense that they're in danger of missing out? I'm guessing that they're not going to win enough direct seats for the threshold not to matter.

Iirc all they need is one direct seat to get a share of seats in the Bundestag in line with their vote share, but the laws might have changed.

To astonish you even more: The nationwide 5% threshold only became effective in 1953. For the very first federal election in West Germany, a party needed to pass the 5% hurdle in merely one state in order to enter the Bundestag. That's how eleven parties managed to join the parliament.

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How will Election Day play out for those of us following for the first time?

Exit polls will be out at 6 pm local time. They are usually quite good and give you a rough idea about what's going on. Over the course of the evening, the actual results will be merged with the projection. If the results are not super close, you can with good conscience turn your TV off at 8 pm.

Speaking of exit polls...
The hashtag #Wahlbetrug has been trending on Twitter owing to a banner displayed in the midst of the quiz show The Chase:

https://twitter.com/M_Ziesmann/status/1441463213661560832

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R₂G:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1441553038817193987

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Oh great, just what we need. Another load of asocial economic migrants who will just come here, refuse to integrate and commit a wave of white collar crime, money laundering and tax fraud.

At least you had the right to decide upon if you allow such people to infiltrate into you country.

Btw, it's "anti-social", not "asocial".

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My question is, would the FDP be similar to the Libertarian party in America? Or, would it be more like “country club/business Republicans?”

Definitely the latter.
Oh, and your acquaintances are absolutely right about the FDP: It's a sheer and pure economic-liberal pro-business party.
It's only and merely and solely Atlas that thinks they're social-liberal.

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Just in case nobody has mentioned it yet:

Share of the vote-by-mail ballot in Rhineland-Palatinate:

2017: 27.8%
2021: 48.7%

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My question is, would the FDP be similar to the Libertarian party in America? Or, would it be more like “country club/business Republicans?”

Definitely the latter.
Oh, and your acquaintances are absolutely right about the FDP: It's a sheer and pure economic-liberal pro-business party.
It's only and merely and solely Atlas that thinks they're social-liberal.

The question is how "social liberalism" is truly defined. It's certainly not the same all over the world and especially comparing the US to Europe.

True is that the FDP supports a number of policies that people associate with "social liberalism" such as same sex marriage, decriminalization of cannabis and abortion rights. These issues and a modern immigration reform wouldn't much of an issue in negotiations for a trafficlight coalition.

I wouldn't even compare the FDP to Republicans on other issues since they still support the welfare state and don't question climate change. The modern Republican Party is more like the AfD.

I'm not saying the FDP is opposed to civil rights, but they would always prefer currying favor with the economic lobby to taking a stand for civil liberties. Article13/17 and TTIP are very prime examples for their two-faced stances.

It's just astonishing for me to realize that most of the Atlas community deems the FDP left-wing. On Atals' twin sister called Twitter you would be lynched for daring to say that.

The Trumpinzed GOP may be deemed too populist by the FDP, but so is the woke AOC-Omar-Tlaib undermined Democratic Party.

Moreover, the FPD might not be as staunchly neo-liberal as they were 15 years ago, but in 2002 and 2005, they basically intended abolishing the welfare system - including our healthcare system - thoroughly and entirely, and replacing it by an American-style private security system.

Furthermore: During the commencement of the FDP's history, the party staunchly opposed SSM. In fact, even in the early 2000's, they - along with the Union - instituted judicial review proceedings at the Federal Constitutional Court against the civil union law passed by the red-green government.

Bottom line: Prior to 2016, the FDP clearly and doubtlessly would have been a "wing" of the GOP; nowadays it's a bit more complicated.

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HAPPY ELECTION DAY // FROHEN WAHLTAG!! 🇩🇪

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Anyone know what is the best TV news coverage for German elections? Either for English or German language?

The German John King, Jörg Schönenborn, will cover the election at ARD (daserste.de). For Englisch language, I think dw-news will be sufficient, this is at least the only TV programme I can think of which might cover the election in English.

So do BBC and CNN International. Maybe not as thoroughly as ARD or Phoenix, but still better than this forum.

In 2002, a CNN Internation reporter kept on saying "Stoiberle. Stoiberle. Stoiberle." I though she was referring to the Union's chancellor candidate Edmund Stoiber - until I realized that she was trying to pronounce Hans-Christian Ströbele's name. 😋