Ohio redistricting thread

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5310496-ef2c-4deb-9eda-46ef5dafeb4b

A more likely map the GOP would draw if they keep the court.  Kaptur's district is cut, she could run against Latta in a Trump+7 district.  Tossup/Tilt R. 

Chabot gets a Clinton+9 district and would likely lose unless it's a Biden midterm.  If he won in 2022, he'd almost certainly lose (or retire) in 2024.

Tim Ryan gets a Trump+2 Akron/Canton district.  He doesn't live in it, but would probably run there.  Tossup/Tilt D. 

All other incumbents should be safe. 

[Idaho Conservative]

I think this might be the best way to divide Columbus. I basically took all of Franklin East of the Scioto besids Westerville and NW Columbus. The rest went to the district with Delaware. That district is R+6 composite(NOT PVI) so probably around Trump +3 or so as the area swung like 6 points left. Keeps the minority side of Columbus together for a 33.5 % black district . Anyway the 2nd district is lean R but still trending D.

No way the gop draws that tho.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/07/11/holy-toledo-a-legal-13-2-ohio/

RRH out with their 13-2 gerrymander of Ohio.

Real question -

If put before a judge, which map do you think they'd rule in favor of when considering the provisions within the reform?

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1282414594875551744

Anyway I drew a "fair" ohio map based on his original map from 2012(before he changed all his districts thx to new partisan numbers which just shows his maps aren't really non partisan)




https://s1131.photobucket.com/user/swolf318/media/Redistricting%2520Maps/Ohio/OHFairmapDoverview_zps3e87b643.png.html
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/4/22/1201551/-Did-Gerrymandering-Cost-Dems-the-House-A-33-State-Look-at-Alternative-Non-Partisan-Maps
For comparison here is his map he drew when he only knew Obama numbers(before Toledo swung to the right and Columbus north zoomed left )

The akron seat is Clinton +1.3 and the Toledo is around Trump +5.5 FWIW, Youngstown is Trump +9.5

Wolf is of course partisan, but your "based on" claim has to be a joke.

The main point where you made his map more Republican is at his 5th, 7th and 9th districts (Toledo, lakeshore, Western Cleveland). These areas had the population for three districts at the time when Wolf drew the map. But first you rightfully took out the areas which are inside the limits of Cleveland to avoid splitting Cleveland. And additionally stagnating population and Ohio (supposedly) falling from 16 to 15 districts further reduces their weight. In the end the remaining areas (district 5, 7, 9, but without the areas in Cleveland) will make up ca. 2.5 districts in 2020, with an average PVI of ca. R+0.5. What you did then was to add areas for ca. a half district with an average PVI of ca. R+20 to shift all three districts into the Republican direction. Even Wolf in 2015 would have recognized this as very pro-R.

Since the state loses a district, causing the districts to grow, and the district cut is republican, therefore it makes sense many districts would move right.  

[Idaho Conservative]

Compliant R map for.  Kaptur's district gets cut and Ryan gets a tossup. However, Chabot gets a Clinton+9 seat that would be lean/likely D.  I didn't to a maximum map, that would crack Akron and Cinci, but I didn't want to be too aggressive, this gives R incumbents pretty safe seats while it doesn't look extremely biased from a visual perspective, I just weaponized geography as much as I could.  Overally I'd say 10 safe R, 2 safe D.  The Cincinnati seat would probably only go red in a favorable midterm and the Akron seat is a tossup trending red.  Ryan's seat is currently trending red and this speeds that up lot.  While Ryan has outperformed the presidential margin in his district and this one is only Trump+2, over time he will attract well funded challengers and the district will probably get redder.  I doubt it would stay blue the whole decade.  The Toledo seat would be competitive if Kaptur decided to run there, it is "only" Trump+10, but if/once she loses, which would be likely, then it will probably end up going a similar direction that IN-2 went in the last few cycles.  I think this map could go anywhere from 10R-5D to 13R-2D in 2022 depending on who wins in 2020, after that it probably ends up being 11R-4D or 12R-3D. 

[Idaho Conservative]

Ryan and Kaptur have their gooses cooked, but if the GOP wants to avoid the image they might sink Cinci.

yeah, Ryan won by single digits in his dem vote sink seat.  Most likely he'll run in a competitive seat based in Akron, I don't see Youngstown being put with Akron but I think Youngstown will end up in a seat too red for him to be competitive in.  Republicans would be smart to concede Cinci but draw out Ryan and Kaptur.  At this point, both of their seats are actually functioning as dem gerrymanders.  Republicans can pretty easily keep Dems to 3 seats, 1 in each big city.  It'll be pretty clean too.

[Idaho Conservative]

Republicans should not crack Cinci IMO.  Just draw clean 12-3 map.

[Idaho Conservative]

Republicans should not crack Cinci IMO.  Just draw clean 12-3 map.

Why not?  If it doesn't endanger the other Cincy-area district, they may as well.  You don't even have to trail it out to the east beyond Clermont County, as there are still plenty of very red areas of Hamilton.  Those plus Cincinnati city plus Clermont gives a lean R district, and then the rest of Hamilton can be added to Butler/Warren for a safe R. 

would incentivize a ballot initiative

[Idaho Conservative]

Yeah a lighter version of a gerrymander is fairly simple for the Ohio GOP. As shown earlier an actual fair map can only have 3 Clinton districts. A light gerrymander just pushes the swing seats to the right/satisfies incumbent demands.

yeah a tilt R map would have 2 solid Dem seats (Cleveland and Columbus), a likely Dem seat (Cinci), 1 tossup/lean R seat in Akron or Cleveland suburbs, 1 or 2 likely R seats (Toledo and maybe somewhere else) and the rest would be safe.  Worst case scenario 9/15 seats are safe.  They'll probably win 12-13 in 2022.

[Idaho Conservative]

Given the fact that a vulnerable west Cleveland seat seems unavoidable, I see no reason to not just keep the Toledo to West Cleveland sink and that means Akron can't support a competitive seat anymore either, and thus Ryan would be DoA. Keeping a competitive seat in NE Ohio gives Ryan a chance to return, keeping the Toledo sink for at least one more decade has to be a more preferable option for OH Republicans. Basically once those deep blue west Cleveland precincts are out of the way, you can easily put Akron in with red areas, and you end up with 1 Safe D and 1 Safe R seat rather than the 2 tossup seats that are being proposed in this thread.

the snake by the lake can't remain

[Idaho Conservative]

A R incumbent protection map.  All the districts except the 3 Cs are at least Trump+10 (so right of the state as a whole) and every Republican incumbent lives in their seat except Wenstrup, due to Cinci not being cracked.  While Chabot has an unfavorable Clinton+9 seat, district 9 is a great pick up opportunity for Republicans, being Trump+16.  Chabot could even win in 2022, but probably not beyond that.  2022 could end up being 13-2, but then it should become 12-3 in most years.  This map also shores up Balderson, Stivers, and Turner.

[Idaho Conservative]

12-3 is definitely most likely, with the Akron seat being lean or likely R and Cincinnati being likely D.

[Idaho Conservative]

12-3 is definitely most likely, with the Akron seat being lean or likely R and Cincinnati being likely D.

12-3 is definitely the farthest the GOP could push it without starting to risk a dummymander but I can almost guarantee that plan only lasts 4 years because it won't get the Democratic votes it needs to last for 10 and it will almost certainly get taken to court for unduly favoring Republicans. 

Using 2020 results I think we are more likely to end up with something that is more like 10-1-4 at worst for the Democrats.  If they are feeling really aggressive then they could push for 9-1-5.  I think a fair map is probably something more like 7-2-6 or 7-3-5.

no way R's agree to a 4th solid Dem seat, the only way that maybe could happen is an Akron+Cleveland suburbs seat, but I think R' would instead go for a swing seat in Akron.  Also, a 4 year map is to the Republicans advantage, they then can adjust it for trends and the OH Supreme Court will probably be more conservative thanks to partisan elections.

[Idaho Conservative]

12-3 is definitely most likely, with the Akron seat being lean or likely R and Cincinnati being likely D.

12-3 is definitely the farthest the GOP could push it without starting to risk a dummymander but I can almost guarantee that plan only lasts 4 years because it won't get the Democratic votes it needs to last for 10 and it will almost certainly get taken to court for unduly favoring Republicans.  

Using 2020 results I think we are more likely to end up with something that is more like 10-1-4 at worst for the Democrats.  If they are feeling really aggressive then they could push for 9-1-5.  I think a fair map is probably something more like 7-2-6 or 7-3-5.

no way R's agree to a 4th solid Dem seat, the only way that maybe could happen is an Akron+Cleveland suburbs seat, but I think R' would instead go for a swing seat in Akron.  Also, a 4 year map is to the Republicans advantage, they then can adjust it for trends and the OH Supreme Court will probably be more conservative thanks to partisan elections.

I think the 4th likely Dem seat would more likely come from a second Dem pack in Columbus.  I also think you might be overestimating the partisanship of the Redistricting Commission members.  If a GOP map fails to win 50% of the Democratic votes in each chamber of the General Assembly then the Redistricting Commission takes over.  There are multiple GOP members on that committee who have worked on passing redistricting reform and several who aren't exactly Trump's biggest cheerleaders so they'd have no qualms about drawing Mike Carey or Jim Jordan out of a district.  I'm betting on the passage of a 10 year map that still favors the GOP but is much more competitive.  12 safe GOP seats is not going to happen.

not 12 safe seats, some, like the Toledo seat and maybe Akron will still be competitive but trending right.  I really doubt Columbus has 2 Dems seats though, it is extremely easy to keep it to 1.  Northeastern OH is much more geographically challenging.  It is possible to create a very clean map where Trump won 12/15, but a couple of those would be within 5 points.  I think best case for Dems in a wave year would be winning 5 seats