Ohio redistricting thread

[Padfoot]

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

Including or excluding Steve Chabot?

I was thinking including.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

OK folks I have a challenge for ya'll.  Now that Steve Stivers is retiring the least painful thing for Republican to do would be eliminating his district and then drawing incumbent protection districts for the rest of the delegation.  Does anyone think they could do this and still follow the rules of the new redistricting amendment?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/dd058ab7-f768-4f17-90a6-c05ea0d977e3
Does this qualify?

I think you might have some illegal chops in the Northeast.  It looks like the new 13 & 14 are chopping two different counties which isn't allowed.

In that case the lines can easily be redrawn. Thank you for telling me. I wasn't aware of that part of the law.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

OH state house if it was as large as the state house of neighboring PA.
73 Biden districts.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/ada4e0c7-41c3-4942-a957-d6f0250f573c

[Nyvin]

7 County Splits,  three being unavoidable obviously.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1216203e-993e-4674-a1b8-53aafa97f48a

[UncleSam]

As much as I love to see Democratic fantasies about how Ohio redistributing might go, I personally find it a lot more interesting to consider what kinds of vicious gerrymanders the Ohio GOP will cook up to be ‘within the redistributing amendment’.

What many of the above maps are forgetting is that things like competitiveness, fairness, and cleanliness of lines are not really concerns for the Ohio GOP.

[dpmapper]

Here's one that not only fits the legal parameters, but also keeps every GOP representative in his district (except perhaps Wenstrup or Chabot, both within Hamilton County). 



Cincinnati district (Chabot) is Trump+3 in 2020
Green (Wenstrup) and purple (Turner) nearby are Trump +10
Latta vs Kaptur in the northwest, mostly Latta's turf.  Trump +11.6
Davidson gets yellow district, Trump +34.  It's ugly because Jim Jordan lives in the southern end of the red district (Trump+24)
Gonzalez gets lavender near Cleveland, Joyce the dark navy blue in the northeast, both Trump +10 or 11
Akron district is open, Trump +5.
Gibbs gets grey Canton district, adds Youngstown: Trump +20
Bill Johnson for light blue Ohio River district, Trump +33
Balderson's green district is Trump +24
and the last pink district (tbd in the special election) is Trump+21

[Gass3268]

No way the Ohio Supreme Court would allow only 2 seats for Democrats.

[S019]

No way the Ohio Supreme Court would allow only 2 seats for Democrats.

Yeah I think at a minimum you need to cede the Cincinnati seat and you probably need at least 1 more along the lakefront (either Kaptur's seat or an Akron based one), and that's to say nothing of say a possible North Franklin-Delaware seat or something.

[Skill and Chance]

No way the Ohio Supreme Court would allow only 2 seats for Democrats.

Yes, it's now only 4R/3D and one of the 4 R's already voted to toss the 2010's map.

[dpmapper]

The dissents that would have struck down the 2012 maps relied on specific clauses in the requirements for districts (that they not divide too many counties etc.)  Under what clause would the OH court strike this down?  Note that there is no general "fairness" clause.  

Obviously the commission would have to fail, and the legislature unable to create a bipartisan map, in order for this to come into play, and it would only be in effect for 4 years.  So I don't expect that this map will actually come to pass, there's more incentive to play nice.  But this is the worst-case scenario if you're a Dem.

[cvparty]

The dissents that would have struck down the 2012 maps relied on specific clauses in the requirements for districts (that they not divide too many counties etc.)  Under what clause would the OH court strike this down?  Note that there is no general "fairness" clause.  

Obviously the commission would have to fail, and the legislature unable to create a bipartisan map, in order for this to come into play, and it would only be in effect for 4 years.  So I don't expect that this map will actually come to pass, there's more incentive to play nice.  But this is the worst-case scenario if you're a Dem.

it would get struck down under this:

(6) If a congressional district includes only part of the territory of a particular county, the part of that congressional district that lies in that particular county shall be contiguous within the boundaries of the county.

[Stuart98]

Here's one that not only fits the legal parameters, but also keeps every GOP representative in his district (except perhaps Wenstrup or Chabot, both within Hamilton County). 



Cincinnati district (Chabot) is Trump+3 in 2020
Green (Wenstrup) and purple (Turner) nearby are Trump +10
Latta vs Kaptur in the northwest, mostly Latta's turf.  Trump +11.6
Davidson gets yellow district, Trump +34.  It's ugly because Jim Jordan lives in the southern end of the red district (Trump+24)
Gonzalez gets lavender near Cleveland, Joyce the dark navy blue in the northeast, both Trump +10 or 11
Akron district is open, Trump +5.
Gibbs gets grey Canton district, adds Youngstown: Trump +20
Bill Johnson for light blue Ohio River district, Trump +33
Balderson's green district is Trump +24
and the last pink district (tbd in the special election) is Trump+21

You've got several districts that are illegal because they have non-contiguous county cuts. Dark blue's Cuyahoga cut, mint green's Franklin cut, green's Warren cut, and purple's Greene cut are all illegal.

[dpmapper]

Some of those cuts are just to avoid cutting a city, but fair enough.  In any case they are all trivial to fix and don't affect much of anything. 

[Devils30]

No way the Ohio Supreme Court would allow only 2 seats for Democrats.

Dems would be smart to ask for 10-5 from the court..probably wouldn't happen but 12-3 seems to be the worst case.

[Padfoot]

The dissents that would have struck down the 2012 maps relied on specific clauses in the requirements for districts (that they not divide too many counties etc.)  Under what clause would the OH court strike this down?  Note that there is no general "fairness" clause.  

Obviously the commission would have to fail, and the legislature unable to create a bipartisan map, in order for this to come into play, and it would only be in effect for 4 years.  So I don't expect that this map will actually come to pass, there's more incentive to play nice.  But this is the worst-case scenario if you're a Dem.

it would get struck down under this:

(6) If a congressional district includes only part of the territory of a particular county, the part of that congressional district that lies in that particular county shall be contiguous within the boundaries of the county.

I also feel it could get struct down under any of this:

(a) The general assembly shall not pass a plan that unduly favors or disfavors a political party or its incumbents.

(b) The general assembly shall not unduly split governmental units, giving preference to keeping whole, in the order named, counties, then townships and municipal corporations.

(c) The general assembly shall attempt to draw districts that are compact.

(d) The general assembly shall include in the plan an explanation of the plan's compliance with divisions (C)(3)(a) to (c) of this section.

They are going to have to draw at least 3 safe dem seats plus 3-4 more Brown-Trump districts.

[CookieDamage]

President 2020

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5e128d7-a7c1-49ff-ae2f-d12616e77875

Basically 2-3 safe seats (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinatti), along with some Lean D seats and the rest Solid GOP. One tilt R tossup centered on Dayton.

7 D - 8 R

Obviously never going to happen with the Ohio GOP at the helm.

[Stuart98]

President 2020

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d5e128d7-a7c1-49ff-ae2f-d12616e77875

Basically 2-3 safe seats (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinatti), along with some Lean D seats and the rest Solid GOP. One tilt R tossup centered on Dayton.

7 D - 8 R

Obviously never going to happen with the Ohio GOP at the helm.

Very illegal, you have a bunch of districts with dual county splits. A given pair of districts are only allowed to split one county between each other.

[Schiff for Senate]

[If Democrats had a trifecta instead of Republicans] A map with 8 Clinton and 7 Trump districts (although it must be said that only 5 of these districts cast more votes for Democratic than Republican House candidates in 2016): https://districtr.org/plan/20146.

[Padfoot]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b2accccc-7fde-42ce-92b4-913de2a7b15b

This isn't perfect but its the kind of map I can see Republicans trying to pass off as "fair."  The partisan leans displayed are based on Biden-Trump.  However Brown actually won 5, 7, 9, 10, 13, 14, and 15 (by 138 votes) in 2018 and DeWine won all of those as well except for 13.  Trump won all the same districts in 2016 and by similar margins.  He lost the most ground in 9 and 15.

This map (or something similar) is what I imagine GOP map-drawers are currently trying to cook up right now.  It really isn't that difficult to make a ton of Brown-Trump districts which is what I image the Republicans will do to "prove" that their map is fair or competitive.  In reality there will only be 3 truly winnable seats for Democrats not named Sherrod Brown and the rest will effectively be GOP +5 or higher.

I think the map as I've drawn it still presents opportunity for Kaptur and Ryan to hang on but I'm sure someone more skilled than me could screw them over even more while still keeping their new districts as Brown-Trump.  I've also probably drawn too many Brown districts in total.  I think 8 total Brown districts would suffice to mimic his margin from 2018.

[GregTheGreat657]

What do you guys think of this OH Republican gerrymander? I know it isn't VRA compliant?    https://davesredistricting.org/join/74843365-d5da-4c52-9d6d-56250c0706d2

[Nyvin]

What do you guys think of this OH Republican gerrymander? I know it isn't VRA compliant?    https://davesredistricting.org/join/74843365-d5da-4c52-9d6d-56250c0706d2

Well, uhh, there's a big laundry list of violations this map has that goes against the reform (way too many to list).   

[Padfoot]

DeWine has scheduled the first meeting for the redistricting commissions for this Friday.

https://apnews.com/article/ohio-redistricting-8ea8bf06152c7478a70e37b4acafa1df

[Biden his time]

I tried my hand at a fair 15-district map of Ohio.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.01%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

66/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
87/100 on the Compactness Index
69/100 on County Splitting
50/100 on the Minority Representation index (I tried for black-majority districts in Columbus and Cleveland though)
26/100 on Dave's competitiveness index (eh)

The map above shows results from the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Ohio: 14R to 1D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Ohio: 10R to 5D

2018 Ohio Attorney General Election: 9R to 6D

2018 U.S. Senate Election in Ohio: 10D to 5R

2018 Ohio Gubernatorial Election: 9R to 6D

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Ohio: 10R to 5D


Opinions?

[Idaho Conservative]

12-3 is definitely most likely, with the Akron seat being lean or likely R and Cincinnati being likely D.

[Padfoot]

12-3 is definitely most likely, with the Akron seat being lean or likely R and Cincinnati being likely D.

12-3 is definitely the farthest the GOP could push it without starting to risk a dummymander but I can almost guarantee that plan only lasts 4 years because it won't get the Democratic votes it needs to last for 10 and it will almost certainly get taken to court for unduly favoring Republicans. 

Using 2020 results I think we are more likely to end up with something that is more like 10-1-4 at worst for the Democrats.  If they are feeling really aggressive then they could push for 9-1-5.  I think a fair map is probably something more like 7-2-6 or 7-3-5.