2020 New York Redistricting

[MillennialModerate]

How many seats do Dems stand to net from NY?

[MillennialModerate]

Can someone just make it simple: What’s the breakdown? 23-3?

[MillennialModerate]

Going 22-4 is not “going all in”

That’s a 7 seat swing……9 was really the minimum we needed out of NY to make the nation even close to fair. They could’ve made a prettt damn safe 23-3

[MillennialModerate]

I mean… isn’t this almost certainly overturned?

Or am I wrong

[MillennialModerate]

Does anyone see a chance the map stands? I can’t

[MillennialModerate]

Does anyone see a chance the map stands? I can’t

Uh, are you the slightest bit familiar with the New York Court of Appeals?

Nope… enlighten me

[MillennialModerate]

Lol pretty depressing. Another decade of Dems having little shot of winning the house

[MillennialModerate]

Lol pretty depressing. Another decade of Dems having little shot of winning the house

Even if this map is overturned the median seat will be Biden + 3ish nationally. Certainly not “no chance”

Biden +3…

Biden won by 5. So that means it’s Republicans +2

Meaning Dems have to win the national popular vote by (like last time) 4-5 to win a bare majority.

For this decade only time they’re going to win the house is in a 2018 type environment

[MillennialModerate]

I thought it was a foregone conclusion Dems would win in court but like everything else related to decisions on the electoral system - sounds like it’s going the other way

[MillennialModerate]

So the court of appeals is entirely made up of Dems….

What are the odds this thing is struck down?

It would be so typical that the Dems strike down their own map while Republicans allow theirs to stand

[MillennialModerate]

Let’s be real. Everything goes against the Dems in these kinds of situations….

Even though it’s a 6-0-1 court. NY will have the only truly non partisan judges in the nation…

[MillennialModerate]

This is such a joke.

It sounds dramatic but sh**t like this discourages me to not even give a sh**t about our political system.

It just feels like such a lost cause at this point.

[MillennialModerate]

Can someone explain to me why “the right” on social media and otherwise thinks that the special master is a “Democrat” and that the maps won’t be that much better for Republicans?

[MillennialModerate]

So the Hochul map was 22-4 right?

The current map is 19-8 / Dem wave 21-6 / GOP Wave 18-9 /

What’s the BEST Democrats can hope for?

A “fair map” is 16-10.

[MillennialModerate]

So the Hochul map was 22-4 right?

The current map is 19-8 / Dem wave 21-6 / GOP Wave 18-9 /

What’s the BEST Democrats can hope for?

A “fair map” is 16-10.

I have no idea where you even got the idea that a 16-10 map is fair/even possible. Not even the GOP proposal gives them 10 seats.

Albany, Rochester, and Buffalo are 3 D seats. NYC, even in its most R friendly configuration (1 Staten Island seat, 1 Orthodox seat that probably voted for Clinton), gives the Dems 11 safe seats. That's already 14, and we haven't even looked into the configuration of LI, the Hudson River Valley, Syracuse/Ithaca, or pointed out that giving NYC the most R friendly configuration in NYC is distinctly not fair.

In all likelihood, the map produced is likely gonna be somewhat similar to the 2010s era map. We can likely expect 4 urban seats upstate (Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, Albany), as well as 12 Dem seats based in NYC (1 R seat being given to either the Orthodox or Staten Island). You're also likely to get the 2 Dem leaning seats that immediately border the city on Long Island.

The only big questions are how the Hudson River Valley is configured, as well as the remaining two Long Island seats. For the former, you could get anywhere from Biden winning all 3 by small/decent margins, to Biden winning only 1 by a large margin and Trump winning the other two by small/decent margins. For the remaining two Long Island seats, you could see one D leaning and one R leaning seat, or two very close seats that may have voted for either Biden or Trump.

The larger point here is that the big change from going from the Dem gerry to a fair map is largely just that seats become more competitive, rather than the Rs being given seats. The details of the map will matter a ton, of course, in determining if many of these seats flip or simply remain close, but we're unlikely to see full-on R safe seats being created or safe D seats being dismantled.

To me “fair” map is an accurate representation of the popular vote in House races from the previous decade. And Dems average 61% of the vote

[MillennialModerate]

So the Hochul map was 22-4 right?

The current map is 19-8 / Dem wave 21-6 / GOP Wave 18-9 /

What’s the BEST Democrats can hope for?

A “fair map” is 16-10.

I have no idea where you even got the idea that a 16-10 map is fair/even possible. Not even the GOP proposal gives them 10 seats.

Albany, Rochester, and Buffalo are 3 D seats. NYC, even in its most R friendly configuration (1 Staten Island seat, 1 Orthodox seat that probably voted for Clinton), gives the Dems 11 safe seats. That's already 14, and we haven't even looked into the configuration of LI, the Hudson River Valley, Syracuse/Ithaca, or pointed out that giving NYC the most R friendly configuration in NYC is distinctly not fair.

In all likelihood, the map produced is likely gonna be somewhat similar to the 2010s era map. We can likely expect 4 urban seats upstate (Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, Albany), as well as 12 Dem seats based in NYC (1 R seat being given to either the Orthodox or Staten Island). You're also likely to get the 2 Dem leaning seats that immediately border the city on Long Island.

The only big questions are how the Hudson River Valley is configured, as well as the remaining two Long Island seats. For the former, you could get anywhere from Biden winning all 3 by small/decent margins, to Biden winning only 1 by a large margin and Trump winning the other two by small/decent margins. For the remaining two Long Island seats, you could see one D leaning and one R leaning seat, or two very close seats that may have voted for either Biden or Trump.

The larger point here is that the big change from going from the Dem gerry to a fair map is largely just that seats become more competitive, rather than the Rs being given seats. The details of the map will matter a ton, of course, in determining if many of these seats flip or simply remain close, but we're unlikely to see full-on R safe seats being created or safe D seats being dismantled.

Good analysis. To me a 20-6 map would salvage a prayer for Dem hopes in a Non-wave year. Anything lower than that - forget it

[MillennialModerate]

The Dems bless them could not agree upon who should be tossed overboard, or severely inconvenienced. So they submitted about the same map that the Courts rejected, and will let the special master and the trial judge decide that issue. Perfectly reasonable when you think about it.

How the HELL is this reasonable?

Draw a cleaner 21-5 map and be done with it.

This isn’t Ohio where they can just keep punting

[MillennialModerate]

The Dems bless them could not agree upon who should be tossed overboard, or severely inconvenienced. So they submitted about the same map that the Courts rejected, and will let the special master and the trial judge decide that issue. Perfectly reasonable when you think about it.

How the HELL is this reasonable?

Draw a cleaner 21-5 map and be done with it.

This isn’t Ohio where they can just keep punting

He's saying they don't want to bother with the infighting that submitting an actual map could cause. For example screwing over Biaggi would not be popular with the significant progressive caucus.

Who the F cares? You’re costing your party a 4-6 seat swing because you don’t want to hurt someone’s feelings? GTFO with that

[MillennialModerate]

Can someone explain to me a few things:

How come Wasserman thinks this is terrible for D’s yet Cohn thinks it’s great for Dems (and so do some posters here)

[MillennialModerate]

Anyone have the actual numbers for each district?

[MillennialModerate]

Odds of passing?

[MillennialModerate]

Odds of passing?

There were two rulings.

5-2 against the maps
4-3 for a special master. 3 Judges argued the legislature MUST be given the chance to try and remedy the defects before taking away the power.

With a new CJ appointment there is probably a majority for letting the legislature redraw but not for letting it just do whatever it wants. They will likely need to be a bit more discrete than last time. But given 2022 it is quite likely they will be more cautious, perhaps shooting for 6 GOP seats not 4.

So if my counting is correct NC would end up swinging +2 to the GOP if you do it as a NY<>NC swap

[MillennialModerate]

Anyone want to explain wtf is happening here.

This makes zero sense.

For the record if NC and OH went fair - I’d be okay with it. But…. they didn’t. So WTF?

[MillennialModerate]

So if I’m understanding this correctly. Democrats don’t feel they have the votes in the COA to keep another Hochulmander in place?

Yeah that is what I think.   Democrats likely feel they need to work within the general framework of the IRC maps or risk getting it thrown out by the courts. 

Could definitely backfire on them. Imagine they go for a Hochulmander, it gets tossed out instead in favor of keeping the special master maps, and Trump gets a trifecta because Brandon Williams wins re-election by 100 votes.

Imagine Trump gets a trifecta because NY Dems brought a water balloon to a gun fight …

[MillennialModerate]

I’d be happy with this had the R states been fair but they never are - so this is a disgusting move that makes it easier for the fascist party to gain power