Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Oryxslayer]

D House up to 43.5% on JHK (!)

Seems a bit bullish, but ok. Either majority will be very narrow. That much is certain.

Basically for Dems to hold the House, they need to sweep a lot the mail seats in the west, or hope NY has some hidden D vote larger than what we expect. The former is possible, but it depends upon a bunch of unknowns, so assign value captiously.

AZ and NV though are looking much better for D's then earlier - or as far back as redistricting in AZ. Both states suggest that all precincts or almost all precincts are counted, so this might potentially be the GOP high point in both states, meaning house seats like AZ-06 and AZ-01 are on the table.

[Oryxslayer]

Weren't the later ballots in NY very Dem friendly in 2020? I remember making swing maps days after the election where NY was a clear outlier, and looked like Republicans had really overperformed, only for it to even out with the states around it as the last ballots came in.

I think the later ballots were more dem friendly, I remember Souzzi looking like he was slightly behind at like 3AM election night

Edit: this is pure copium about NY and they could have changed whatever may have made that the case in 2020

Things have changed, but the lean still holds true. Just the numbers are much, much, smaller cause of counting process changes that have most of the mail released before 1 month passes. The Ryan special election is key here -  the election shifted towards dems, but not by more than marginal.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1590390312450797570

Did they actually get it? Last I saw they were 1 seat short in both. Same in PA House.

[Oryxslayer]

CA got almost monotonically more R with each post E-Day update in 2020.  Biden went from about 67% in the election night results to about 63% in the final count.  I know the counting procedure changed between 2018 (when it got monotonically more D).  If this pattern repeats, CA would be a lesser version of NY with Newsom only winning by 12 or so.  I would not get excited about close Dem leads in any of the CA House seats until this is sorted out.

Or CA matches polling (which is something to actually point towards now) which means things get more dem like in 2018-  mainly cause there was an actual E-Day unlike 2020 so GOP are  less  represented in mail. We don't really know. Same with the later mail in AZ and NV- but the latter two are look decent.

[Oryxslayer]

Speaking of NV, Ralston on NBC. Known unknowns about mail ballots, dems winning them 2:1 in clark, maybe 100K+.

[Oryxslayer]

In Michigan, Whitmer is leading 54-44 with a significant amount of blue areas, including AVs from East Lansing and Ann Arbor, left to report. I think a 56-42 end result is not out of the question. She will definitely exceed her 2018 margin of victory.

It looks like the Democrats will have a 20-18 majority in the State Senate and a 56-54 majority in the State House. It's kind of crazy to think that the Republicans had a super-majority of 27-11 in the State Senate as recently as 2018.

Addendum to this point: DFP article saying GOP concedes, dems winning bare majorities in both: https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/11/09/michigan-house-senate-democrats-election-results/69632658007/

[Oryxslayer]

CNN called AZ-02 for Crane. Seems a little early without knowing what the outstanding vote is in AZ but that'll pad the GOP advantage a little bit.

I can't be the only one who still thinks this is the Tuscon seat.

[Oryxslayer]

To summarize my last post:

https://twitter.com/Nick_Goedert/status/1590402240036057088

If this ends with Ds holding the House because Schweikert loses my heart may stop

If Dems were to win 4/6 of the close California House seats & 3 close NV house seats ... how would that influence the balance of power in the house calculation/ or sentiment of likely house control?

Here is some very dirty math using NYT:

198-175 GOP-Dem

Looking at all seats east of the rockies and assigning them to their current favored candidates, we add 10 to each column.

Looking west (cause west has mail which makes it separate) there are 21 seats which will very likely go blue, 2 go red: AZ-05 and CA-23 are the GOP ones, Alaska is including in Dem total.  This makes things  210-206 GOP-Dem

19 mail seats decide majority:

3 Nevadas
3 Oregans
AZ-02, AZ-01, AZ-06
WA-08 and WA-03
CA-03, CA-09, CA-13, CA-22
CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, CA-40

Some favor one party at this point, but the nature of the mail vote makes them go long.

[Oryxslayer]

CT-05 seems done barring recount, so earlier tweets were wrong:

https://twitter.com/MassJumbo/status/1590410330408386561?s=20&t=1W6UT7nLJ3Oz...[/tweet]

[Oryxslayer]

Also, if it hasn't been mentioned, the massive NH State House looks to be coming down to the wire with potential recounts that actually could matter since the seats are so small. See https://twitter.com/nhpol603

Add it to the long list of chambers where crucial benchmarks seem to be just barely met:  Both MI, Both NV, Both MN, PA House, both AZ, and several where GOP supermajority thresholds were denied.

[Oryxslayer]

so what exactly happened in Boebert's seat? Was it a turnout thing? Actual vote-switching? People fed up with her craziness or some specific scandal?

A lot of results seem driven by the major race in the state: Florida, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina...Colorado goes on the list and Polis is a dominating candidate.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BenMargiott/status/1590421837380395008?s=20&t=1W6UT7nLJ3...

So maybe the NYT estimates were realistic...closer to 200K in clark?

[Oryxslayer]

A D Senate and as narrow an R house as it looks to be will not be a good outcome for government.

But it will be a very FUNNY one for the next two years.

I'm already seeing discussion about the chaos scenario where chamber control depends  upon every special election, defections from the 5 or so Ds and Rs who could actually consider that, or even just who is sick a perticular day.

[Oryxslayer]

It all comes down to how pissed people west of the Rockies are about gas prices.

Good thing regional prices fell by almost a dollar about 3 weeks out - yes I know there are other issues.

[Oryxslayer]

So ...any chance Schumer can nudge Murkowski into switching to Independent and caucusing with the Democrats? She's gotta be getting tired of all the base Republicans voting against her up there.

C'mon Lisa, join the winning team, it'll be fun!

I would save your sirens  songs for the House, cause with 435 people, some who have justifications they can point to, might easily flip between parties or form a 'control' caucus that forces any work to go through them.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT reporting CO-03 is done, Frisch by 2K. Confirming what we already knew.

CO-08 also looking like it can be called.

[Oryxslayer]

Were there any incumbents that lost for non-redistricting reasons? I guess Boebert is the main one? It's really funny how well incumbents did this year, considering the economy and how bad the "wrong track" numbers are.

This is particularly noticeable with governors. DeWine landsliding, Reynolds outperforming Grassley(!), DeSantis landslide, Evers and Whitmer winning by more than 2018, McMaster landslide, Polis landslide, Kelly (KS) surviving...incumbent governors are doing really well, except in New York and probably Nevada.

Yup, and so far the only the Senate flip has been an open seat. It's just bizarre that the mood in the country seems so awful but everyone is apparently very happy with their politicians!

Someone earlier said it's like Canada 2021 election, and it kinda  is: stagnant non-change election with lots of conservative hype that had huge regional variations in trends. Here, it really seems that whatever race in said state got all the attention determined the mood inside that electorate. Red waves in FL and NY. Blue wave in CO, MI, PA, maybe WA. D favored electorates in OH, NC, NH, MN. GOP-favored but normal electorate in IA.

[Oryxslayer]

Somewhat off-topic, but Biden really did fine in that press conference. Always makes me laugh when Republicans run around and claim he has dementia or is not actually in control of the government.

Listening to it as well. I did find it interesting how he tried to make a hypothetical about Jan 6 in the UK and an angry mob storming parliament, and hypothetically asking what you would call that. Well, a little weird cause England did have quite a few such events, though they occurred almost 400 years ago during the wars of the three kingdoms.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/averyhatestwt/status/1590461487663153154

Colorado moment...

Based freedom moment. Criminalizing psychedelics is completely wack.

Putting the "high" in "Rocky Mountain High".

Someone earlier commented how this passing while the Alcohol initiatives failed was the true Colorado moment.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1590530674372378629

I was napping when this came in, however got to mention. This seat has always seemed like everyone's common wisdom was wrong - Mainly cause the seat geographically doesn't appear to change.  But this seat took in a bunch of high-intensity Democrat areas and stealthy zoomed so far past its former position that a lot of people were caught napping.  The primary vote suggested the seat would be better grouped with the OC seats. Always been my sleeper seat cause why was everyone else not seeing the stuff right in front of them.

Now the GOP still could win, but this is a marginal race. Also, it shouldn't have been this seat but the SD or OC ones which lurched left, but the ripple effects of precinct movements ended up here...for some reason.

[Oryxslayer]

So how chaotic would a 218-217 House be, regardless of who controls it?

No one can miss a vote, no one can retire, leave for health reasons, take a cushy lobbying job, or die. Any one member can switch parties and flip the House, or switch just for a vote. Every special election has intense national implications.

Any chance Dems can work a couple of Republicans into switching parties in exchange for a committee chair and maybe a policy concession? (Or vice versa?)

This has happened before in 1930-32, and if it happens we will rediscover just how procedurally awkward the chamber runs with such a margin.

My honest prediction if things end up this narrow is that someone flips into the majority (possibly via going indie) since  there are  a few on both sides who reasonably could justify it, or a 'caucus of power' similar but different to the IDC forms which includes people on both sides to deny both partisan blocks a majority that doesn't go through them.

[Oryxslayer]

CCM NETS 5K AND TAKES THE LEAD IN WASHOE!

Where are you seeing this?

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1590579694906519556?s=20&t=vEIkozo...

[Oryxslayer]

How many ballots left out in Clark, and what percentage of the whole state's remaining ballots are in Clark?

According to this KUNR article, "just under" 57,000 in Clark Co. (and "roughly" 60,000 in Washoe Co.).

And reminder the Clark number is just the drop boxes not the totals which Washoe has been so nice to provide. Real number there is estimated 100kish.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MaryPeltola/status/1590510944697798656

If Peltola loses, I'll cry, she's so cool

This made me realize that I legit have a crush on her.

She, or more likely the staffers who came on after the special, seem well aware that the ElectionTwitter-esque alignment of politics nerds got very attached to that special election, and are continuing to cultivate  that following respectively.

[Oryxslayer]

Basically,  unless the GOP starts sweeping the d-favored races outside of CA, they are in the same boat as everyone else and waiting for the long count. I suspect OC is going to become another MAGA enemy who is "finding " dem votes in key races.

Anyway, since we are in for the long haul, reminder dems always improve on their June primary performance.  So far that electorate is always whiter and more GOP than November, hasn't been wrong since the systems adoption.  If Washington's blanket vote didn't do anything odd, chances are California's won't either.