Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

So ...any chance Schumer can nudge Murkowski into switching to Independent and caucusing with the Democrats? She's gotta be getting tired of all the base Republicans voting against her up there.

C'mon Lisa, join the winning team, it'll be fun!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

By the way Tim Ryan didn't do that good in Parma, seems like he won it by 3.

The Senate map was basically just the 2020 President map. Ryan did marginally better in Northeast Ohio, but Trumbull and Mahoning are gone for any federal Democrat that isn’t Sherrod Brown. He might lose them in 2024 anyway.

I chose Parma because it has strong eastern European ancestry not because of its previous voting pattern.

To assess the effect of Vance being pro-Russia?

Correct. Funnily enough he also did do worse in Mahoning likely due to black turnout crash.

Mahoning has worse trends for Ds than Florida does. Blacks moving out to places like GA and NC and TX...
2008 may as well be an eternity ago.

[fluffypanther19]

Can California update their election system? I can understand a week but a month is utterly ridiculous.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I just want McCarthy’s two years as Speaker to be as miserable as possible for him, so the thinner the majority the better. 220 should be enough of a headache for him, so I’ll take it.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

DAMN IT my estimates say we're heading to 220 Republican seats, looking at those uncalled. 11 likely, 4 tossups, and 1 where I have no idea what is going on (CA-41).

Which are you likelies?

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/agraybee/status/1590440179101102080

[President Johnson]

Shapiro’s victory video is so good. I encourage you all to watch it-

https://twitter.com/JoshShapiroPA/status/1590358565004480512?s=20&t=QvXSmBSx...

He's definitely future presidential/vice presidential material. Especially if he governs well.

Also not to understimate is that Shapiro is, at least in my view, a good speaker. You actually like to listen to his voice. Stark contrast to DeSandwich, even if you put his politics aside.

[Oryxslayer]

So ...any chance Schumer can nudge Murkowski into switching to Independent and caucusing with the Democrats? She's gotta be getting tired of all the base Republicans voting against her up there.

C'mon Lisa, join the winning team, it'll be fun!

I would save your sirens  songs for the House, cause with 435 people, some who have justifications they can point to, might easily flip between parties or form a 'control' caucus that forces any work to go through them.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/agraybee/status/1590440179101102080

The only reason right now would be unexpected health issues

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Shapiro’s victory video is so good. I encourage you all to watch it-

https://twitter.com/JoshShapiroPA/status/1590358565004480512?s=20&t=QvXSmBSx...

He's definitely future presidential/vice presidential material. Especially if he governs well.

Also not to understimate is that Shapiro is, at least in my view, a good speaker. You actually like to listen to his voice. Stark contrast to DeSandwich, even if you put his politics aside.

For the first, like, 15 seconds of the video, I actually thought it was Obama speaking. He sounds a lot like him. That could take him very far.

[Pericles]

DAMN IT my estimates say we're heading to 220 Republican seats, looking at those uncalled. 11 likely, 4 tossups, and 1 where I have no idea what is going on (CA-41).

Which are you likelies?

NJ07. IA03 (I though these two were already called), AZ02, AZ06, MT01, CA03, CA22 (though Valadao has about the same lead as he did this time in 2018), CA23, CA27, CA40 and CA45. NY22, MD06, AZ01 and OR05 are the ones that are tilting Repubican. CA41 is the mystery, because Calvert is down by a lot but he's a long-time incumbent in a Trump district and there's so much of the vote left. All the others I have going for Democrats.

[Badger]

I just want McCarthy’s two years as Speaker to be as miserable as possible for him, so the thinner the majority the better. 220 should be enough of a headache for him, so I’ll take it.

DAMN IT my estimates say we're heading to 220 Republican seats, looking at those uncalled. 11 likely, 4 tossups, and 1 where I have no idea what is going on (CA-41).

220 is not bad at all! Barely any wiggle room for McCarthy.

Sorry, I just don't buy these assessments. The old Rule still applies. Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. I fear that even a one-seat majority is all it would take for McCarthy and his caucus to run Havoc and run 9 months of hearings over critical race theory, illegal immigrants supposedly committing voting fraud, and Hunter Biden's f****** laptop rather than addressing inflation or any other actual problem

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

DAMN IT my estimates say we're heading to 220 Republican seats, looking at those uncalled. 11 likely, 4 tossups, and 1 where I have no idea what is going on (CA-41).

Which are you likelies?

NJ07. IA03 (I though these two were already called), AZ02, AZ06, MT01, CA03, CA22 (though Valadao has about the same lead as he did this time in 2018), CA23, CA27, CA40 and CA45. NY22, MD06, AZ01 and OR05 are the ones that are tilting Repubican. CA41 is the mystery, because Calvert is down by a lot but he's a long-time incumbent in a Trump district and there's so much of the vote left. All the others I have going for Democrats.

220 GOP seats would be only 1 away from my guess of 221. If CCM wins, then my guesses will make my predictions among the most accurate of any Atlas posters' this election cycle.

[riceowl]

Question - does the runoff affect the timing of any indictments? Ie, are the midterms technically still going on and ergo no possibly political indictments?

[lfromnj]

I just want McCarthy’s two years as Speaker to be as miserable as possible for him, so the thinner the majority the better. 220 should be enough of a headache for him, so I’ll take it.

DAMN IT my estimates say we're heading to 220 Republican seats, looking at those uncalled. 11 likely, 4 tossups, and 1 where I have no idea what is going on (CA-41).

220 is not bad at all! Barely any wiggle room for McCarthy.

Sorry, I just don't buy these assessments. The old Rule still applies. Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line. I fear that even a one-seat majority is all it would take for McCarthy and his caucus to run Havoc and run 9 months of hearings over critical race theory, illegal immigrants supposedly committing voting fraud, and Hunter Biden's f****** laptop rather than addressing inflation or any other actual problem

Have you seen how well Pelosi whips votes? Even your so called moderate tim Ryan voted 100% with Pelosi. Its Mccarthy who struggled.

[emailking]

Question - does the runoff affect the timing of any indictments? Ie, are the midterms technically still going on and ergo no possibly political indictments?

Maybe it would affect the Georgia indictments but not DOJ, if that's in the cards.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/agraybee/status/1590440179101102080

The only reason right now would be unexpected health issues

Yeah. And in this case, all of the listed are preferrable to Harris or Pete, as much as I like them personally. And maybe add Wes Moore to the list; though I see first term governors more as vice presidential hopefuls rather than at the top of the ticket.

[Person Man]

So ...any chance Schumer can nudge Murkowski into switching to Independent and caucusing with the Democrats? She's gotta be getting tired of all the base Republicans voting against her up there.

C'mon Lisa, join the winning team, it'll be fun!

If she has common sense, she will. Her state is swinging.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

DAMN IT my estimates say we're heading to 220 Republican seats, looking at those uncalled. 11 likely, 4 tossups, and 1 where I have no idea what is going on (CA-41).

Which are you likelies?

NJ07. IA03 (I though these two were already called), AZ02, AZ06, MT01, CA03, CA22 (though Valadao has about the same lead as he did this time in 2018), CA23, CA27, CA40 and CA45. NY22, MD06, AZ01 and OR05 are the ones that are tilting Repubican. CA41 is the mystery, because Calvert is down by a lot but he's a long-time incumbent in a Trump district and there's so much of the vote left. All the others I have going for Democrats.

MD-06 is an almost certain Dem hold.
I had CA-41 as a likely Dem pick-up just based on the previous vote, but you're right...NYT seems to think it's likely R despite the Dem lead.  However, I'm not sure how fine-grained the NYT analysis is when the district is entirely contained in one county.

[President Johnson]

I just want McCarthy’s two years as Speaker to be as miserable as possible for him, so the thinner the majority the better. 220 should be enough of a headache for him, so I’ll take it.

For whatever that is worth, Adam Kinzinger on CNN predicts that Trump will throw McCarthy under the bus.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

https://twitter.com/DavidTurkell/status/1590426378666938368

LMAO

Like, I get that ballots have until Friday (iirc) to arrive (and I think that’s fine), but it seriously shouldn’t take more than a week after that to finish counting them.

[Dani Rose]

So ...any chance Schumer can nudge Murkowski into switching to Independent and caucusing with the Democrats? She's gotta be getting tired of all the base Republicans voting against her up there.

C'mon Lisa, join the winning team, it'll be fun!

At this point, she's practically already running as an Alaska Democrat.

You know which way the wind is blowing, Lisa!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Question - does the runoff affect the timing of any indictments? Ie, are the midterms technically still going on and ergo no possibly political indictments?

Maybe it would affect the Georgia indictments but not DOJ, if that's in the cards.

I expect that DOJ will also hold off until after the runoff.

[ProgressiveModerate]

DAMN IT my estimates say we're heading to 220 Republican seats, looking at those uncalled. 11 likely, 4 tossups, and 1 where I have no idea what is going on (CA-41).

Which are you likelies?

NJ07. IA03 (I though these two were already called), AZ02, AZ06, MT01, CA03, CA22 (though Valadao has about the same lead as he did this time in 2018), CA23, CA27, CA40 and CA45. NY22, MD06, AZ01 and OR05 are the ones that are tilting Repubican. CA41 is the mystery, because Calvert is down by a lot but he's a long-time incumbent in a Trump district and there's so much of the vote left. All the others I have going for Democrats.

I agree with these, except MD-06 seems Dem favored given how the outstanding vote seems to be from Montgomery. I think it’s too close to call any of CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41 because given the national environment, partisanship could def be enough to flip the former 3. I feel pretty good about CA-47 and 49 going D while Rs hang onto 40 and 45, but even then, those aren’t locks.

NY-22 and AZ-01 seem to be in pretty decent shape for Rs.

OR-05 is def interesting and 6 isn’t out of the woods either.

WA-03 also seems like it could be very close.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1590439673012563969

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1590440066924838912