NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently AOC endorsed sixty people for City Council:

https://twitter.com/MarketUrbanism/status/1401248004665921539?s=20

Apparently not all of these are endorsements, most are simply statements of who in the race supports and has endorsed AOC's courage to change pledge. That includes both crazies and legitimate candidates.

[Oryxslayer]

Why has Yang collapsed to the extent that he has in recent weeks?

Garcia had a surge, also he was always a crappy candidate coasting on name recognition

I would say that three candidates surging, each a reaction to the previous in a way, hurt in a way that simply chalking to up to one does not. Yang's campaign was built off name recognition, and being just not that offensive in a quirky way. Three candidates rising raises name recognition in different communities, and pushes the inoffensive Yang from first to a lower position on the ballot. Essentially a "not horrible but not my favorite position." Which is a problem cause he is now unlikely to see these transfers ever occur cause his first round support is getting eaten at all ends.

Also scandals, but not on him. Other candidates scandals gets people to pay attention, and forces their former voters to seek a new candidate and consolidate.

[Oryxslayer]

New NY1/IPSOS poll. Adams in the lead, Yang losing momentum fast, and Garcia and Wiley gaining.

This was taken May 17-31st, so before the 2nd accusation against Stringer, the collapse of the Morales campaign, and the string of endorsements for Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1401844880968753154

So it seems Stringer's supporters aren't buying the allegations?

Sucks for Yang as well, he's running out of political options at this point. Guess he'll just become an activist and/or commentator?

Stinger has done well to hold onto his base support throughout his campaign, but his transfers have been low. Which makes sense: anyone who has paid attention no longer trusts him, but there remains a committed group who doesn't believe it or still thinks he is the best of a flawed field.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there even a front runner/favorite at this point? Adams and Yang seem ahead, but they could easily fall behind

The nature of their present candidacies seems doomed to lose via reallocation. But yes, there is no frontrunner - especially since transfers made everything more complex.

[Oryxslayer]

The RCV simulation from that poll. Yang gets limited transfers and then enough go for Adams at the end. Reminder that transfers are not perfect - some voters will exit the reapportionment each round. I doubt there are that many Morales -> Adams voters for instance.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/HenryRosoff/status/1402748589839900677?s=20

Memerson, but Wiley clearly is now in the top candidate bracket.

[Oryxslayer]

How long will it take the vote counters to count each round of this thing? Will we see the results come out round by round?

Apparently they are expecting all votes available on election night to have their first preferences announced though a normal process. Then NY's stupid ballot laws take effect and we have to wait weeks on top of the rational wait for ballot curing and postmarked mail ballots. Once all those votes are accounted for and all first preferences are known, they now begin the reallocation.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/hakeemjeffries/status/1403454273392988169?s=20

Otherwise known as the "I have a district with both Brooklyn progressives and African Americans in it, and I want a position in future Dem leadership" endorsement.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ZachandMattShow/status/1403437549025173508

Eric Adams is far worse than I ever thought.

This was a from a good while back, happy to see it's gaining traction again.

[Oryxslayer]

That's from several months ago?

May 5th and page 33 of this thread is the original discussion.

Thank God I won't be living in NYC for the next four years. I mean, I love this city, but if it's gonna Adams or Yang. Good god.

Eric Adams literally wants to end summer vacation and establish online school with 300-400 kids to a teacher.

source? I very much doubt that would get much support.

https://twitter.com/danarubinstein/status/1364698595237261317?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[Oryxslayer]

Said Marist poll's RCV ballot.

I personally think the best opportunity here for An Adams loss is from Wiley. Mainly because I have a harder time seeing there being Garcia -> Adams transfers when compared to the large overlap in Garcia -> Wiley. Wiley on the other hand has some demographic support that would flow to Adams, despite their ideological differences.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1404919624592990212?s=20

Another RCV assignment, this time with Garcia finishing ahead. As noted previously, Garcia does best when the turnout model assumes lower comparative minority  - especially African American - turnout. Change has a good track-record in Democratic primaries. Most notable is Morales's complete collapse. 

[Oryxslayer]

Change Research also polled favorability among Dem primary voters. Yang once again has the worst ratings of the 4 frontrunners, and enjoys near universal recognition. Lol at Morales.

[Oryxslayer]

Yang gonna win East Asians, Satmars, and nobody else at this rate.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1405651934040662022?s=20



Memerson. Also Wiley just barely loses to Garcia in the final allotment. Data-wise, its a second poll that confirms Morales is in the dumpster. Yang has a comparatively sizable base but gets next to no transfers.

[Oryxslayer]

Y'all are probably tired of hearing about PredictIt betting odds, but Yang is getting dangerously close to only being in single digits...

I'm not getting tired, thanks for keeping us all updated!


Anyway who do you all think wins the Ultra-Orthodox Jewish community? Yang and Adams both have made plays and they are a unified, fast-growing constituency who typically vote as a bloc.

Do you all think Yang or Adams does better among them? And how instrumental will they be for victory?

I can see maybe a lot of them doing Yang and Adams as #1 and #2.


Also I made a thread for predictions. Join us!

The community from the top down looks like a block, but it is really a mess of separate blocks that each follow their own Rabbis or community leaders. They usually all find themselves supporting the same candidate, but not this time. Yang has some endorsements, Adams more - especially in the Flatbush/south Brooklyn area.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/tina_nguyen/status/1406282032884428804?s=20

The cross-endorsement is happening.

[Oryxslayer]

Yang tells his supporters to rank Garcia second. This could be make-or-break moment for Adams' frontrunner status, given Yang's support seems to split 50-50ish between Adams and Garcia/Wiley. OTOH, it may be too late to matter.

[Oryxslayer]

Yang tells his supporters to rank Garcia second. This could be make-or-break moment for Adams' frontrunner status, given his support seems to split 50-50ish between Adams and Garcia/Wiley. OTOH, it may be too late to matter.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is one of these bolded "Adams'" supposed to say "Yang" instead?

The "his" needed to be Yang for better clarity.

[Oryxslayer]

I already regret putting Wiley first

Really? The RCV system should see your first round vote go to Garcia if Wiley doesn't make it, and if she does it stays. There is no point who tops the list as long as your preferred of potential finalists are all ranked accordingly.

[Oryxslayer]

Am I the only one who doesn't think any of these candidates are particularly good?

No, you are not alone in pretending to be alone in having these positions. Such a thing was repeated dozens of times in this thread.

Yes, and the continual answer is that any candidate with a future or a decent brand has no reason to run for a dead end office like mayor of NYC, so second or third tier candidates will only ever be the options.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jacksantucci/status/1406287669555040263?s=20

Someone did some backhand math for the memerson poll. I only note this cause it looks like there is significant ballot exhaustion from both Wiley and Stringer.

[Oryxslayer]

That 538 article was dumb.  It was just "whites, latinos, and blacks all vote differently, and then here are two areas where they don't vote homogenously."

But 538 in general has basically nothing to offer these days.

I'm really hoping all the negative press down the home stretch will kneecap Adams just like it did Hillary Clinton in 2016.

You know the article was dumb the moment they put the progressive gentrifiers in the same group as Manhattan. Those groups are polar opposites ideologically. Plenty more issues of course, but that is the obvious one.

[Oryxslayer]

This will be fun. How much info will we actually have by the end of the day today? I know counting will take forever, but what % of the reported vote could we expect by tomorrow morning?

All election day and early in-person first preferences will be known tonight. All absentees and other mail votes are not counted until June 29 as per NY law, which gives 1 week for ballots to arrive that were postmarked on or before Election Day. Voters are also given time to 'cure' their ballot in the event of any defects until July 9. June 29 is when there votes will be entered into the pool. They will start providing weekly updates on the full vote on July 6. Supposedly this puts July 12 as the day of reckoning since all votes will then be in the system. However, this assumes competence and priority on the part of NYC tabulators, and they have not demonstrated either in the past. NYC does have all the city council and borough races as will to enumerate. Checking back on the RCV special elections in the Bronx that happened earlier in the year, it appears that it is the first round votes that take the longest. Once the enumerators have every legal vote from within the time period, then they reallocate and this apparently goes very quickly through software. Allocation will be announced all at once, rather than by round.

[Oryxslayer]

In a similar vein to the previous post, I think we are all unprepared for the Trumpian manner Adams may conduct himself during these next few weeks. He has already displayed hints of it during the cross-endorsement, and the inevitable wanting period will only heighten everyone's nerves. Unless something shocking happens, Adams will win the first round votes counted tonight. We will however get an idea based on comparative turnout by neighborhood and RCV projections if he is in danger of losing that position on the final allocation. Adams has already attacked the RCV process and will likely continue to do so if the data is there for a final round loss. He also could try to claim some legitimacy from his first round victory as if it was the final contest, potentially through an incredibly premature victory party and speech tonight.

https://twitter.com/JonMIPol/status/1407327838861238275?s=20