NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[LabourJersey]

So Yang's finished?

We don't know for sure how RCV is going to go, so I can't count Yang out of winning yet. But he's much less likely to win than he was 8 weeks ago.

But there's still 2 more weeks of a very volatile campaign.

[Terlylane]

Key endorsement
https://nypost.com/2021/06/02/ex-trump-advisor-michael-flynn-endorses-fernando-mateo-for-mayor/

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I’m noticing a last minute movement towards Wiley, but I doubt it’s enough

My ballot will be as follows, and this is fairly set

1. Wiley
2. Garcia
3. Donovan
4. Yang

Curious - why Donovan?

[Lognog]

I’m noticing a last minute movement towards Wiley, but I doubt it’s enough

My ballot will be as follows, and this is fairly set

1. Wiley
2. Garcia
3. Donovan
4. Yang

Curious - why Donovan?

True neutral, everyone else sucks

[KaiserDave]

I’m noticing a last minute movement towards Wiley, but I doubt it’s enough

My ballot will be as follows, and this is fairly set

1. Wiley
2. Garcia
3. Donovan
4. Yang

Curious - why Donovan?

Better than Yang :/

[rhg2052]

My top three ranking looks like it will also be Wiley>Garcia>Donovan. Maaaaybe Morales at 3 or 4. Probably leaving 5 empty.

Still figuring out rankings for the other races, but I've committed to #1 spots for Reynoso for Brooklyn Borough President, Aviles for District 38 City Council, Lander for Comptroller, and Williams for Public Advocate.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

There’s always Paperboy Prince.

[Calthrina950]

Why has Yang collapsed to the extent that he has in recent weeks?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why has Yang collapsed to the extent that he has in recent weeks?

Garcia had a surge, also he was always a crappy candidate coasting on name recognition

[Calthrina950]

Why has Yang collapsed to the extent that he has in recent weeks?

Garcia had a surge, also he was always a crappy candidate coasting on name recognition

I've heard about Garcia's surge, and I saw a report on ABC's This Week earlier today about the mayoral primary. Ocasio-Cortez, it seems, has endorsed the progressive Wiley, who seems to have very radical views on law enforcement. Garcia, on her part, seems to be campaigning as a moderate. Who do you think has the advantage at this point and who do you support?

[Oryxslayer]

Why has Yang collapsed to the extent that he has in recent weeks?

Garcia had a surge, also he was always a crappy candidate coasting on name recognition

I would say that three candidates surging, each a reaction to the previous in a way, hurt in a way that simply chalking to up to one does not. Yang's campaign was built off name recognition, and being just not that offensive in a quirky way. Three candidates rising raises name recognition in different communities, and pushes the inoffensive Yang from first to a lower position on the ballot. Essentially a "not horrible but not my favorite position." Which is a problem cause he is now unlikely to see these transfers ever occur cause his first round support is getting eaten at all ends.

Also scandals, but not on him. Other candidates scandals gets people to pay attention, and forces their former voters to seek a new candidate and consolidate.

[KaiserDave]

Why has Yang collapsed to the extent that he has in recent weeks?

Garcia had a surge, also he was always a crappy candidate coasting on name recognition

I've heard about Garcia's surge, and I saw a report on ABC's This Week earlier today about the mayoral primary. Ocasio-Cortez, it seems, has endorsed the progressive Willey, who seems to have very radical views on law enforcement. Garcia, on her part, seems to be campaigning as a moderate. Who do you think has the advantage at this point and who do you support?

Wiley is not really that radical on law enforcement, at least compared to Morales.

[SInNYC]

This is my summary of the candidates:

Adams: demagogue, who knows what he will do
Yang: an Asian Bloomberg, seems like a nice guy. Also seems intelligent
Garcia: a Democratic Bloomberg, might be a decent manager
Wiley: a centrist who talks left, probably not as conservative as the above 3
Stringer: capable, but with serious harassment issues
Morales: progressive but no evidence that she can run anything, or walks the talk
Donovan: did you know he worked for Obama?
And the million dollar question: Will governor Cuomo let any of the above do anything?

And on the Republican side, we have
Silwa: guardian angel, enuf said
Mateo: Trumpster, probably as corrupt as Trump too.

Who is a person to vote for?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

My political insider "godfather"/"uncle" said that currently he still has Stringer as his #1. He knows Stringer somewhat and feels like the allegations are completely out of character for him, and thus is skeptical. I believe Garcia or Wiley is his #2.

[xavier110]

In one of the most brazen and shameful displays I’ve seen someone do while campaigning in office, Stringer announces results of an audit of Garcia’s dept a week before voting starts

https://mobile.twitter.com/NYCComptroller/status/1401888752088367106

What a loser. I have a high tolerance for shenanigans, but this would make me want to slap him if I saw him in public and had the chance LOL

[Pyro]

New NY1/IPSOS poll. Adams in the lead, Yang losing momentum fast, and Garcia and Wiley gaining.

This was taken May 17-31st, so before the 2nd accusation against Stringer, the collapse of the Morales campaign, and the string of endorsements for Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1401844880968753154

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think it's pretty important to state that there's a consensus that increased levels of policing result in reductions in crime but that the specific causal mechanism for this isn't entirely clear. Is it because an increased police presence acts as a deterrent or is it because the police lock more people up who would otherwise commit crimes? If you feel comfortable with the latter, you're basically endorsing "pre-crime" policing tactics, where we punish people for doing things correlated with committing violent crime, like selling loose cigarettes or jaywalking while being an underclass Black man and failing to pay the fee for that. I feel that this is actually a form of fascist authoritarianism and I have no time for people who think this is okay.

At the same time, there's plenty of evidence that an increased police presence acts as a deterrent. The UK's Coalition experiment is pretty suggestive that reducing police employment and cutting back on the courts reduces to increased levels of crime in a context where the law isn't very harsh or applied in nasty ways like it is here.

I think it's critical to draw a distinction here because few Blacks or Hispanics would agree with the idea of imprisoning people who are likely to commit crimes because that could imply their son or cousin being incarcerated for selling loose cigarettes or smoking crack. They are interested in justice and police protection. I should also add that they are very supportive of interventions that do not involve the police, like after school programs and the like.

Another piece of evidence that's worth mentioning: Martin O'Malley's grad campaign to reduce the murder rate in Baltimore involved locking up as many Blacks as possible and it worked but the plan was counter-productive in the long-run because Black jurors started nullifying just about every trial in the city and cooperation with the police plummeted. This is a massive danger of trying to pursue mass incarceration instead of justice.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

AOC endorsing Wiley is a pretty embarrassing error.

Why?

Maya Wiley might win and then AOC would be sandbagged for the rest of her career by her association with Wiley, who would be disastrous. Even if you support police reform, Wiley is exactly the sort of candidate who'd cause the NYPD to catch a strong case of the "blue flu". Tbh, she reminds me a lot of Hardesty in Portland...

[Pyro]

Polling consistently shows that the share of Americans who want more policing in their neighborhoods is larger than the share who want less. This pattern of responses is not limited to whites.

Reality check from the new poll:

People equate crime rates to the number of police units, and we're told constantly that more police is the only answer. A greater police presence has not stopped crime, though. Just look at their response to the arbitrary Washington Park curfew. This isn't making anyone safer.

https://twitter.com/EoinHiggins_/status/1401375956376461315?s=19

https://twitter.com/isabelle_leyva/status/1401375479706304517?s=19

[KaiserDave]

Not joining the police argument, but Ave is absolutely right that posting random videos from Twitter is not an argument-at all.


Yang really fading now, I don't think he has a shot, baring late momentum.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The motives for enforcing a curfew at Washington Square Park seem pretty murky to me. Some news outlets say the notion is to "prevent rowdy parties", others say that it's primarily because there has been drug use at the park and it seems that there's some violent crime happening at the park.

Overall, I can't say I feel comfortable with imposing a curfew to stop parties in a public place, even if they involve some drug use but I suppose I am unusually libertarian about this sort of thing.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Honestly at this point I’m surprised Wiley-Garcia didn’t do a mutual campaign like Leno-Kim did in San Francisco

[Pyro]

Posting a bunch of out-of-context cell phone videos to support your preferred narrative is very Andy Ngo.

I explained the context in brief but here's some more info. The NYPD has been evicting everyone from WS Park without prior notice beginning about a week ago. Students, park residents, homeless people, and other park goers have been rather brutally attacked a few times now and ordered to leave the area. Officers run people down with their bikes in full-on riot gear as shown in the linked clips, move into the Village, and violently beat, pepper-spray, and arrest anyone in the vicinity. They've chased some people for multiple blocks (nowhere near the park). Their objective should be to make the park safer, which could be done by targeting actual criminals, but instead we see -again- that militarized, unaccountable police units can launch these assaults on innocents without repercussions.

In any case, you don't need to be concerned with the opinion of one cranky Vermonter. You need to be concerned that 72% of likely NYC primary voters disagree with you.

My point is that progressives and police reform proponents need to work on improving public awareness on this issue. Many people seem to correlate higher numbers of police with  inherently safer communities, though that program has failed to reduce crime or solve the root problems that lead to crime. I was glad to see some push-back at moments during the last mayoral debate when the candidates were discussing this, it's a welcome change.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Basically every study conducted on the matter shows that an increased police presence in an area reduces crime rates in that area! Unless you believe that people are mentally subnormal and do not respond to incentives, the belief that policing has no effect on crime is basically nonsensical.

For instance, it's pretty clear that totalitarian regimes are very effective at curbing political speech through the use of police, that political prisons reduce covert political activity etc. Why wouldn't this also be true for violent crime or property crimes?

[Real Texan Politics]

New NY1/IPSOS poll. Adams in the lead, Yang losing momentum fast, and Garcia and Wiley gaining.

This was taken May 17-31st, so before the 2nd accusation against Stringer, the collapse of the Morales campaign, and the string of endorsements for Wiley.

https://twitter.com/ZackFinkNews/status/1401844880968753154

So it seems Stringer's supporters aren't buying the allegations?

Sucks for Yang as well, he's running out of political options at this point. Guess he'll just become an activist and/or commentator?