Scottish Parliament Election, 6th May 2021

[Oryxslayer]

Question: Because Scottish Labour is in such a sh**tty position, and its leadership is a poisoned chalice, is there any chance of the national party organizing a proverbial 'Hail Mary?' Essentially, if they no they are going to lose big, and making the likely play would still lead to labour losing by a lot, wouldn't it make sense to gamble? Fastrack someone's career from comparative obscurity and give them a chance to change the trajectory, and if nothing happens, then nothing was lost.

[Oryxslayer]

For post Alba poll:

3%

https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1377680333446000643

I am surprised Alba is so low.  Does not SNP voters know that pro-independence parties gains more seats by voting Alba vs SNP ? 

The Scottish Greens theoretically already served that role, and they have been gaining over the past month in response to the Sturgeon-Salmond SNP conundrum.

[Oryxslayer]

Where is the power to change the Scottish electoral system located? At Westminster or Holyrood? If it ends up with a "gaming of the system" via Alba, giving a pro-independence supermajority, there might be pressure to change the system to a better one. Obviously the best thing would be to ditch the constituencies, and just have open lists in the regions, but this is the UK, so it would most likely be changed into something worse I would assume.

That power lies with Westminster. Same goes for the Senedd - it was Labour who banned dual candidacy and the Tories who repealed that rule. Though changing the system without the consent of the Scottish government could almost certainly backfire.

There's nothing to stop a credible unionist alternative from doing the same thing as Alba, and the Panelbase poll had Alliance for Unity potentially winning a seat or two (don't place too much emphasis), so if they want to blame the system for their shortcomings they're foolish.

See South Korea for a good example. They tried to reform the system and input a few leveling seats, but then one party decided to game the system by not running any list candidates and instead having a shell party collect their votes. In order to not fall behind, the other big parties did it, and then the leveling seats just became PR seats. This is the eventual fate of all leveling systems unless you have strict laws to prevent such a development - such as mandating parties contest both the FPTP and the PR side of the slate.

[Oryxslayer]

I voted at 2pm after the rain. Voting did seem really brisk.

I'm in Glasgow Cathcart so it was a simple SNP/Green.

Pretty much everyone I know in my area has seen or met Nicola today (her seat starts across the road)

I wonder what turnout will be like.
The previous record was 58.4% in 1999 and second 55.8% last time in 2016.

I've seen lots of reports of brisk voting at the polls despite the bad weather. This is with a quarter of the electorate voting by post up from the high teens back in 2016.

Could we see record turnout?

That seems to be the case, but I'm hearing ground reports that the increase is skewed towards areas less favourable to the SNP.

Tome for some #Analysis:

- If it ends up being good for the Unionists, the story will be the Jersey bickering motivated unionists to turn out - since turnout wins these elections, not vote transfers.

- If it ends up being good for the SNP, the story will be the SNP voters know which seats were competitive and didn't turnout in the Safe areas and did in competitive ones.


BBC Scotland Results page for tomorrow: https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c37d28xdn99t/scottish-parliament-election-2021

[Oryxslayer]

Just turning back in again, the Conservatives have to be dissapointed that Banaffshine and Buchan didn't go their way after that swing have that region voted over the last 5 years of referenda and elections.

[Oryxslayer]

Kilmarnock, a Safe SNP seat reports in and there is little change. What change has happened is slightly shifted towards both unionist parties.

It could be the case that we are seeing the result of those rumors from earlier. Safe SNP seats have lower turnout and then the Unionists slightly gain via turnout. Closer seats have higher turnout and partial consolidation around a unionist opposition.

[Oryxslayer]

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

[Oryxslayer]

List vote for Aberdeen Donside is apparently horrible for Alba at 2%, unsurprisingly. Aberdeen is basically the targeted part of the Nationalist vote by Alba, so probably 0 seats for Alba.

[Oryxslayer]

Sturgeon basically saying she won't get a majority in political-speak on BBC. Looks like the SNP knows unionist consolidation in marginals will deny the SNP pickups on the constituencies.

But if SNP outperforms on the regional vote would it not matter how many constituency seats SNP happens to gain or lose which at most will be in the low single digits in either direction.  So even if SNP gains less or even loses constituency seats due to unionist tactical voting their fate is still in their hands on how well they do in the regional vote.  Is this not the case ?

Yes, but polls said the SNP would do near 10% worse on the list when compared to the constituency. About 1/7 SNP voters went Green and 1/50 went Alba. The Alba votes are likely to be wasted, but the Greens will gain. So the SNP can't count on maybe even any list sets outside of the south. However they still will likely form government thanks to the Greens.

Other news, SNP held the Safe seat of Falkirk east. Similar story to other safe seats where changes were marginal at best.

[Oryxslayer]

Glasgow Southside - the Sturgeon/Sawar seat.

Sturgeon - 19735
Sawar - 10279
Cons - 1790
Others - 856

Strong swing towards Labour thanks to Unionist tactical voting.



Unionist consolidation behind the Lib-Dems in Caithness did not however flip the seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Lib Dems hold Shetland on a 19 point swing to the SNP.

And then on the other side of the coin Rennie won East Fife with a large personal vote that consolidated the unionist behind him.

[Oryxslayer]

SNP gain Ayr off a marginal result.

[Oryxslayer]

SNP hold Moray despite a significant Tory challenge. I get the feeling the SNP majority will be made or lost in the Tory-SNP seats in the Northeast and South.

[Oryxslayer]

Con hold Dunfriesshire with a increased majority thanks to unionist tactical voting from Labour.

[Oryxslayer]

Edinburgh Central flips SNP for Angus Robertson. Robertson swept up some labour and Green voters and came over the previous Conservative total. Flip from Ruth Davidson's personal vote to Robertson's.

[Oryxslayer]

Edinburgh Central flips SNP for Angus Robertson. Robertson swept up some labour and Green voters and came over the previous Conservative total. Flip from Ruth Davidson's personal vote to Robertson's.

Initially quite hopeful about Scotland, I am now despondent.

Is an SNP majority now possible? If so, that's terrible...I'm resigned to the idea of an SNP/Green majority, but an outright SNP majority would be beyond awful.

Once again, it depends. Seats have so far moved in one direction, but the SNP need to gain quite a few more and tactical voting in other areas could hurt them. Remains a tossup.

Edinburgh Southern being held by Labour for example narrows their path.

[Oryxslayer]

Conservatives hold Eastwood with Labour tactical voting, but some of those tactical voters went for the SNP.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour holds Dunbarton. That is big. Massive unionist tactical voting.

[Oryxslayer]

Labour holds Dunbarton. That is big. Massive unionist tactical voting.

Oof, that stings. The Tories really didn't mess around in Dumbarton, looks like they got like 8%. Is there still a path to an SNP majority without that seat?

Likely no. But surprises still may occur.

[Oryxslayer]

I also support a supermajority as a observer, not because of history, but because if you can prove you have overwhelming support than the majority of the opposition is less likely to remain bitter. If world-changing referenda are decided by say...52/48, then the opposition won't stop to try and see it overdone given the tight polling. Voters are polarized on identity, and you have to break or accommodate the opposing identity, one can't just let it take root and divide society. The goal is to a better future, and polarization in any such system - Scotland, Catalonia, Northern Ireland, or anyone else - makes things worse not better.

[Oryxslayer]

I also support a supermajority as a observer, not because of history, but because if you can prove you have overwhelming support than the majority of the opposition is less likely to remain bitter. If world-changing referenda are decided by say...52/48, then the opposition won't stop to try and see it overdone given the tight polling. Voters are polarized on identity, and you have to break or accommodate the opposing identity, one can't just let it take root and divide society. The goal is to a better future, and polarization in any such system - Scotland, Catalonia, Northern Ireland, or anyone else - makes things worse not better.

I disagree with this. Requiring supermajorities in referenda implies that the status quo is somehow inherently a more legitimate position than revising said status quo, and I'm not sure why this would be the case for referenda more than anything else. After all, couldn't you make the same case regarding elections in general? Joe Biden didn't get a supermajority, and you could argue that his becoming president furthered polarization, so why not just stick with the status quo, i.e. the Trump administration?

Ah but that's because you interpret it as purely furthering polarization. Holding a referendum on Constitutional questions that by definition will be a massive and likely permeant project should be able to prove to the opposition that the people want it, so its time to lay down your arms. If change occurs with no chance to change back, like normal party politics, than you don't want to be fighting a guerilla war (Northern Ireland...)with the half of the populace who does not support your policy on purely humanitarian groups. An election by definition can not lead to such drastic changes, and therefore the parties can fight about it.

This isn't some unorthodox view, plenty of US States require thresholds much higher than 50% to approve constitutional amendments. But I'm not here to argue because this is a debate that can go on forever. National identities are powerful.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, to put up back on topic, tomorrow may bring surprises for the SNP. We have so far seen two clear trends. One, the Unionists know who is most viable in their seat and are consolidating not entirely but well enough. Two, the SNP are on average doing the same but better in their targets. There are quite a few Northeast, Edinburgh, and southern seats where marginal Unionist consolidation could top the SNP. So yeah, the fight continues to remain within the margins.

[Oryxslayer]

Can we please keep the politics out the election threads? There are plenty of other spaces for that sort of stuff.

Anyway, to put up back on topic, tomorrow may bring surprises for the SNP. We have so far seen two clear trends. One, the Unionists know who is most viable in their seat and are consolidating not entirely but well enough. Two, the SNP are on average doing the same but better in their targets. There are quite a few Northeast, Edinburgh, and southern seats where marginal Unionist consolidation could top the SNP. So yeah, the fight continues to remain within the margins.

No idea where you're getting this from apart from maybe a desire for drama, there are two changes are in any way consistent with the declared results so far, the snp losing perthshire south and the tories losing aberdeenshire west, and frankly even these don't look particularly likely.

I'm getting it from my excel spreadsheat when compared to the results that have come in. Obviously no change is most likely, but its not like that's guaranteed.

[Oryxslayer]

David Mundell [former Scottish Secretary] accepts the SNP are going to win and he anticipates they will have a majority, as they will pick up some list seats.

Does he mean on their own? I thought that was more or less out of the question after Dumbarton (unless they win Aberdeen West).

And its unlikely they win that seat after the swings in the other Northeast seats. Robertson always said a "pro-independence majority" when he was interviewed on BBC, aka no SNP majority without the greens.

[Oryxslayer]

Tories hold Galloway & West Dumfries off about half of the Llabour vote from 2016 consolidated behind their unionist ticket. SNP vote share also up.