New Hampshire Primary Thread (polls close at 6-7 CT)

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1225868728539254785

SOS predicts 292K voters will turnout in the D side in 2020. This would beat the 253K of 2016 and the 287K of 2008. Considering it was the suburbs/universities that boosted Iowa turnout, and NH has a lot of them, this isn't too outlandish.

[Oryxslayer]

Will this thread get to 137 pages?

Doubtful... it's not like we are awaiting results from some small remote mining community in Australia back in the '40s....

https://www.mining-technology.com/projects/hamersley/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilbara_Iron

After all we count our election results extremely quickly efficiently and accurately every time in America.

In a seriousness, the only chance of this thread getting that big requires the results to (once again) be unknown and TCTC well after midnight. That probably requires the voters to deliver another nailbiter result, forcing those who care to wait for the late towns and the potential recount. That or some bots go crazy and mods are asleep.

[Oryxslayer]

Although Pete was camping in Iowa, and did much better than expected in some of the rurals, it was really his performance in metro Des Moines, combined with a relatively decent statewide spread which jacked his numbers up...

Key question for the NH Primaries, will be can Pete not only perform well in some of posh 'burbs of NH, but additionally do something similar in the rurals which he did in IA?

This is a great observation. The predominant media narrative is to lump in urban and suburban, probably because most media people live/work in urban and suburban areas. However, Buttigieg and Bernie essentially tied in rural areas of IA while Pete outperformed Bernie significantly in suburbs and especially exurbs. Bernie's strength was smaller cities. I expect this pattern to hold everywhere outside the south.

This would seem to imply that Buttigieg can make a killing in the Boston exurbs of southeastern NH. However, I think it really comes down to whether Kobluchar can do OK since she is strong in the same areas. I'm unsure of Warren who might also be strong there, since its not clear who she will be drawing from there.

Lets also throw an additional divide in the types of rural areas onto the pile. While there were some areas where Pete and Bernie's rural support overlapped, there were other where it did not. If we apply this from Iowa to NH, we may see a Divergence between the White Mountains rurals, the Connecticut River rurals, and the mid-state rurals.

[Oryxslayer]

I think only a shock win by Pete of more than 10 points could convince me he can overcome his AA problems.

If somehow Pete  goes on to win this thing it will be in spite of rather than because he overcame his problems with non-suburban African Americans. Biden or Steyer or Bloomberg will carry the communities delegates, they will endorse Pete (in this hypothetical) going into the divided convention making him the de facto nominee even though he will lose the formal first vote, and Pete will pick Keisha Bottoms or Lori Lightfoot as his VP to make amends with the community. This is all hypothetical though, and it is only one of the paths forward.

The African American vote may end up as one of the great ironies of the campaign. All the candidates with specific AA appeal were unable to crack Biden's firewall of support, so they dropped out. Now the African American community could end up as the last leg supporting Biden's coalition, but they are left with no good options, only the least worst. In that regard, the Billionaires are at least saying the right things.  

[Oryxslayer]

Since there was discussion about the geographic breakdown of results earlier:

https://twitter.com/JaredGaffke/status/1226931846530899970


These numbers would normally suggest a tight race, except Bernie is getting 50% in the west and north, aka the Connecticut river towns. Very possible that if the race is close that Bernie loses the first via racking up the score in the second.

[Oryxslayer]

I think it's clear Dixvile Notch wanted to troll the nation this year.

[Oryxslayer]

At what time exit polls will be released? 8 PM I'm right?

In 2016, initial exit poll numbers starting trickling in at around 7:13 PM. I would assume, like Iowa, they get adjusted based on first & final wave of poll closures.


And speaking of which, I went back to CNN's 2012/2016 coverage to get an idea of when precinct updates should be coming. Hopefully, this will be much handier than when I did this for Iowa.

The three winners were declared as soon as all polls closed. Bernie better hope for a projection in the 30-60 minutes or we'll probably be waiting until the morning for a winner.

2016 was pretty uniform in D/R reporting, so look at those a little loosely. I just went by when either party arrived to that percentage. And in both years, it didn't reach 99% for around 8-12 hours after midnight


Eastern time

2016
  8:00     All Polls close
  8:04     10% precincts in
  8:57     20% precincts in
  9:23     30% precincts in
  9:52     40% precincts in
10:12     50% precincts in
10:28     60% precincts in
10:50     70% precincts in
11:32     80% precincts in
12:30     90% precincts in

2012
  7:54     10% precincts in
  8:00     All Polls close
  8:23     Second/third place projections
  8:30     20% precincts in
  8:53     30% precincts in
  9:10     40% precincts in
  9:27     50% precincts in
  9:51     60% precincts in
10:15     70% precincts in
10:56     80% precincts in
11:37     90% precincts in

This is because some towns, like mirror versions of Dixvile Notch, do not report until the day after. Unless the race once again ends up incredibly close, these towns will not matter in the medias quest to declare a winner.

[Oryxslayer]

Republican results so far:



Donald Trump
–   81.6%   31

Bill Weld
–   13.2%   5

Mary Maxwell
–   2.6%   1

Bob Ely
–   0%   0

Eric Merrill
–   0%   0

Joe Walsh
–   0%   0

Juan Payne
–   0%   0

Larry Horn
–   0%   0

Matthew Matern
–   0%   0

President Boddie
–   0%   0

Rick Kraft
–   0%   0

Robert Ardini
–   0%   0

Rocky De La Fuente
–   0%   0

Star Locke
–   0%   0

Stephen Comley
–   0%   0

William Murphy
–   0%   0

Zoltan Istvan
–   0%   0
Other candidates
–   2.6%   1

Lmao

Wasn't Rocky DLF on the democratic ballot last time around? I remember his name from the WV primaries where you always have nobodies pulling nice numbers

There's a Rocky De La Fuente III on the Democratic ballot and a Rocky De La Fuente Jr. on the Republican ballot.

The Rocky De La Fuente that founded the American Delta Party and ran in 2016 in a lot of states with either ballot access or write-in status is the Jr.

I'm not quite sure what RLDF's endgame is, but it certainly is a treat for us election nerds to see a single man consistently get on every possible ballot possible since 2016.

[Oryxslayer]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BradWGME/status/1227301638966300672

In line with the SoS prediction. Can't say whether this benefits Pete/Amy/Warren vs Bernie because there is no comparative numbers coming from the Connecticut river area.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1227360327295262723?s=19

This both bears constant repeating, and won't stop us from overanalysis.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1227364097173446656

48% were influenced somewhat by the debate.

[Oryxslayer]

30% say a women would have a harder chance winning the presidency, >50% said it made no difference. There are  more women within that 30% than men.

[Oryxslayer]

Looking like a Pete upset. Only 11% are 18-29. Yikes for Bernie and most of the voters who vote after 6 tend to be people who work which are older.

CNN just said Klobuchar giving Sanders a run for his money. Buttigieg nowhere to be found.

Lets add some context to this. They asked 50ish people in a Concord precinct and it was Sander-Klob-Pete in that order, with the top two close.

[Oryxslayer]

Looking like a Pete upset. Only 11% are 18-29. Yikes for Bernie and most of the voters who vote after 6 tend to be people who work which are older.

CNN just said Klobuchar giving Sanders a run for his money. Buttigieg nowhere to be found.

Lets add some context to this. They asked 50ish people in a Concord precinct and it was Sander-Klob-Pete in that order, with the top two close.

50ish as in approximately 50 people, or people about 50 years old?

Approximately 50 people. So its a horrible grain of salt/rumor, but people grab on to these things.

[Oryxslayer]

All I'm going to say is that this feels a lot like Iowa, where Amy won some visible early contests so she controlled the early narrative. However, once the data eventually arrived, she did not live up to the hype. I bring this up because Amy consistently has good debates but consistently can't translate them into votes, a problem for her campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

All I'm going to say is that this feels a lot like Iowa, where Amy won some visible early contests so she controlled the early narrative. However, once the data eventually arrived, she did not live up to the hype. I bring this up because Amy consistently has good debates but consistently can't translate them into votes, a problem for her campaign.

“Consistently”? There has only been one set of votes.

Polls are things. Almost always she was near the top of 2019 debate performances, but there never was a polling bump.

[Oryxslayer]

Lebanon 1/3 Precincts:

Bernie 27, Pete 23, Warren 16, Amy 15.5

This is in the West of the state.

[Oryxslayer]

Lebanon 1/3 Precincts:

Bernie 17, Pete 23, Warren 16, Amy 15.5

This is in the West of the state.

Yikes

Edited for 27 bernie.

[Oryxslayer]

Thornton on CNN is a near three way tie between Sanders-Pete-Amy around 23/22%.

[Oryxslayer]

Portsmouth, 1/5:

Sanders 24
Amy 23.5
Pete 22.8
Warren 12.8
Biden 8.7

[Oryxslayer]

Seabrooke:
 
Pete 27.7
Bernie 20.7
Amy 14
Joe 12.6
Warren 8

This coming from DDHQ: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/primary/new_hampshire/president

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1227388885753323520

[Oryxslayer]

Where does Decision Desk get their info from?

Themselves

Yes DDHQ has people on the ground that volunteer and go get info from the precincts/counties. Sometimes it's slower, sometimes its faster.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1227394030222311424

And frankly, it still could go higher since the suburbs of Rochester are  still out.

[Oryxslayer]

Bernie wins Lebanon all 3/3 precincts with 3 votes over pete 1078 to 1075.